What's the difference between registered voters and likely voters?

[rumguy]

Kerry seems to do better in polls of registered voters.

Who are these Kerry supporters who won't vote?

:wtf:

[stray cat]

1. I think likely voters are registered voters who voted in the last election

I am a registed voter who would not be considered a likely voter as I was neutral in 2000 and didn't vote (I apologize but fool that I was I probably would have voted for Bush. I fell for the compassionate conservative, humble foreign policy bullshit). A good voter turn out which I expect to happen this year would probably make registered voter polls more accurate than likely voters - at least in my opinion.

Anyway those Kerry supporters if they are anything like me will be voting in Nov!

[ant]

2. good explanation here

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000635.php

[stray cat]

5. Sorry I was wrong. Thanks for the education.

nt

[Bill McBlueState]

3. likely voters

They determine whether someone's a likely voter by asking a series of questions, none of which is "Are you likely to vote?" With the answers to these questions, the pollster determines how closely the respondent matches the profile of voters in previous elections.

What this doesn't account for is that the segment of the population that votes in 2004 will be much more anti-Bush than the segment of the population that voted in 2000. Young people, for example, stayed home or voted for Nader in large numbers in 2000 because they didn't realize how bad it could get under Bush. Not this time.

Kerry's going to win the election not by swaying those damn fools who are still undecided or wavering after all this time. He's going to win by getting previously untapped segments of the electorate -- young people and single women -- to show up and vote Bush out. That concept isn't going to appear in some statistically determined sample of "likely voters."

[TreasonousBastard]

7. Kids and wimmins...

that seems to be the key.

Last time it was the soccer moms who supposedly held the key, but it's single women and kids who have been among the least likely to vote up to now.

Can't tell for sure, what with all the nonsense being hyped, but I get a good feeling about them getting charged up for this one.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember that soccer moms carried it for Clinton, and if we keep most of them and add the other women and kids, we'll be doing just fine.

30-40% of the population cannot be converted, so we go where the best prospects are.

[bain_sidhe]

4. Well, I call "likely voters" another name for

"now let's assume Kerry supporters won't vote," if that tells you anything. :D

Seriously, each poll defines likely voters differently, and there's a lot of room for "massaging" the numbers in so doing.

Some assume if they voted in 2000, they'll vote again. Some just ask them whether they're relatively certain they'll be voting, barring acts of god or repuke mischiefmakers. Some ask them how many times they voted in the last x number of elections. IOW, "likely voters" means whatever the pollster decides it means.

*edit for typo*

[Trahurn]

6. I always heard

I always heard that regardless of the party the registered voter is exactly that........registered to vote. Likely are those that would be sufficiently motivated to actually vote on election day.