Good explanation for the "bounce"

[JayEEE]

Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International

Final Topline Results
(9/4/04)

N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,188 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

476 Men (plus or minus 5)
532 Women (plus or minus 5)

112 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
349 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
516 50+ (plus or minus 5)

283 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
559 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
144 Non-White (plus or minus 8

417 Military households (plus or minus 6)
578 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)

310 Republican states (plus or minus 6)
409 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
289 Democratic states (plus or minus 7)

541 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
403 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
INTERVIEWED FRIDAY

187 Republicans (plus or minus 8
139 Democrats (plus or minus 9)
165 Independents (plus or minus 8

See anything off-putting here...perhaps it's the disproportionate number of military households in the Newsweek poll (Miltary voters favor GOP 2:1). Hmmmm, Maybe Opinions didn't change but polling techniques DID!

This goes pretty far in explaining the dubious bounce so many alarmists on this forum and else where were oh so worried about. As usual we need to ask what conclusions can be drawn from this knowledge. Obvious the most compelling argument that strikes me is do NOT under any circumstances trust the corporate media. They want Bush to win. They want their status quo and they want their military-industrial complex. So personally I'm going advise everyone I talk to from now until Nov. 2 to turn off the tv (with the exception of C-span perhaps) and look alternative sources of information (mainly via the internet). And please don't get a sense of righeous indignation. Instead get a sense of how much grassroots action is going to need to take place to counter-balance the enormous forces that are against our cause and against democracy!

[loudsue]

1. And a whole slew more republicans were polled:

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

Well, duh! No wonder they reported a bounce! If they had just polled ALL republicans, they could have made it Bush 100%, Kerry 0%, and saved themselves the trouble.

And still the pundits would have sung the tune all over the AMERICAN PEOPLE'S airwaves!

:kick::kick::kick:

[LibertyorDeath]

2. Thanks for this I knew it was bogus

"417 Military households"

Fuck Newsweek.

Bush* asslicking shitweasel MF's

The American Corp Media is in a Full Out Disinfo War against

Americans.

[sandnsea]

3. And the states and minorities

310 Republican, 280 Democratic. And WHICH swing states? And what cities in those swing states? And the minorities, 14.6% minority when 30% of the population is from a racial or ethnic minority??? If you don't know who they're polling, the polls are worthless.

[LibertyorDeath]

4. Kick