3rd Strongest Hurricane in History to Direct Hit Florida-MAJOR NEW UPDATE!

[GOPAgainstGW]

Latest 5:00 EST Forecast for Ivan -
MAJOR CHANGE IN PATH PROJECTION SHOWS STRAIGHT INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA!
Cat 5 160MPH, GUSTS 180MPH

I don't think God wants Floridans voting in this Presidential Election, Damn!

National Weather Service - Ivan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

New Charts:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm9+shtml/090853.shtml?

[burrowowl]

1. Man

that is a course change from earlier and poor Cuba may get it again.

[sidestreamer]

2. Fuck this!

I sat through Frances Sunday and watched Charley whiz through my Lakeland home a few weeks back. What is up with all this? The Miami Hurricanes are aggrevating enough...

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

56. Sick of the hurricanes already!

Both Frances and Charley went through Orlando where I'm at. We stuck around for Charley, but left the state for Frances because they were predicting it to be so nasty. Thankfully, it wasn't so bad. We spent about $500 on food, housing, and gas for 5 days, and we are not rich people. Our grocery bills have been higher too, from having to replace spoiled food due to loss of power. I'm not sure what we would do if another one comes through here.


I've been aching to move back to the new england area for over a year now. This weather certainly isn't making my attitude about living here any better.

[still_one]

3. After the 2000 election, and what the polls indicate now

maybe Karma is having its say

[Dover]

19. Ivan The Great

Ivan III Vasilevich, better known as Ivan the Great ruled from 1462-1505. In many ways, he became great by continuing with the work that his predecessors had started. However, he worked on a larger scale......http://www.mnsu.edu/emuseum/history/russia/ivanthegreat.html

[calimary]

71. I can't help thinking that, myself. Even so, I still feel sorry for the

people who have to endure this. Many of them DID vote for Gore, after all. In fact, a majority of them did. And to all the Florida DUers here - many prayers coming your way. You guys don't deserve this. The katherine harrises and jebbies and limbaughs and scarboroughs do. But YOU don't.

[girl gone mad]

4. You have to wonder...

where are the Fallwells now, when it's obvious to all that God must be punishing Florida for helping Bush steal the 2000 election?


I don't want to make too light of this, though. My mother moved to Florida over the summer. My father just died a couple of months ago, and now she's having to deal with the clean-up from two hurricanes, which both caused damage in her neighborhood. She doesn't need this, and neither does anyone else in Florida.

[The Zanti Regent]

20. Oh Pat Robertson, Aren't you using "PRAY AWAY"™???????????

Oh, I forgot, Florida had that godless Gay Day Disney World, doesn't it????

[Jawja]

29. Oh, Bless

your Mother!

Having recently lost my Father and having to move my Mom, I know exactly what all of you are going through. But add a couple of hurricanes....

My heart goes out to you and your family.

:hug:

[leftchick]

5. hopefully it will destroy some of the Electronic voting machines...

wherever they have them stashed...

[bluestateguy]

6. Wasn't this called a "weak" hurricane just a few days ago?

Goddam news about hurricanes seems to change by the hour!

[GOPAgainstGW]

12. NO THEY HAVE NEVER CALLED THIS A WEAK HURRICANE SINCE DAY ONE!

Luckly Cuba will help block it, but it will wipe the Island clean. Guess we will finally get the chance to re-build Cuba, hun

[Heyo]

55. Well.. it WAS a weak hurricane a few days ago...

... all hurricanes start out weak....

Give 'em some warm water, low shear environment, and a little TLC and you have Ivan...

God help Jamaica... sheesh!.. they'll probably get it while it's the strongest...

Heyo

[Blue Wally]

72. It was a Cat 4......

Going over the Bahamas and the shallow Bahamas bank plus a bit of wind shear from the south weakened it to a Cat 2 when it hit FL. The size and slow movement of the storm more than made up for its strength. Would you rather be hit once with a 4 pound bag of sand or hit multiple times with a 2 pound bag of sand?? The eye on the beast was eighty miles across!

[saracat]

7. Weird.

If it was Karma ,wouldn't it be closer to the election? This way Bush gets to "save" everyone,look concerned and give away FEMA dollars!That always drives up an incumbants numbers, unless you dis the people the way 41 did!

[AspenRose]

61. Hurricane season ends November 1st

so who knows what other things could happen between now and then....

[Blue Wally]

74. No

November 30th.

[ima_sinnic]

8. oh no, poor little Jamaica

like the rest of the overexploited places in the world they just don't need this.

[Bridget Burke]

27. Hope it doesn't damage any important herbal crops....

When's harvest time?

[sniffa]

30. 4:20

obviousLy. :D

[Zynx]

34. I laugh at most of these things, but NOT FUNNY

This could kill tens of thousands of people in Jamaica. Pray for them.

[ima_sinnic]

35. no not at all funny--I have "family" there

--they are still traumatized from Gilbert, "the storm of the century" in 1988
http://www.disasterrelief.org/Disasters/981030Gilbert/

[elehhhhna]

38. Poor Cayman islands, too--flatter than a pancake, no good shelter...

[watercolors]

54. Cayman brac has its historic caves

most of the natives use them.

[Tight_rope]

43. Maybe this will drive those overexploiting thieves away...but I doubt it!

[ima_sinnic]

9. dupe

[Swamp Rat]

10. You might want to change the title of your post.

Hurricane Ivan has NOT hit Florida and it is possible that it may not. Just nitpicking here, no offense, but I'm not ready to accept that it will hit Florida... it has not made "history" yet, one way or another.

[GOPAgainstGW]

14. The Post Is Accurate Based On Current Know Facts!

[Swamp Rat]

15. These are projections, not HISTORY.

It has NOT hit Florida and it is still possible that it may go toward the Yucatan.

You posted: "3rd Strongest Hurricane in History to Direct Hit Florida-MAJOR NEW UPDATE!"

The title should say: "Possibly the 3rd Strongest Hurricane in History to Direct Hit Florida."

Also, this is a dupe: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x812292

Conditions have not changed that significantly since the 2 am post.

[Frodo]

17. It's also not the "3rd strongest hurricane in History"

IF it attains and keeps a category 5 rating and IF it hits FL then it might be the 3rd strongest RECORDED hurricaine to hit the US.

"History" is a tad larger than that.

[Xithras]

79. Not to nitpick but...

Recorded history covers the period we have written records for.

History covers the period covered by written records, plus the period covered by oral tradition.

Anything not written down or told in story is, by definition, prehistoric. So unless the Seminole have spoken legends about even bigger storms, Ivan may very well be the third biggest hurricane in history ;)

[Bombtrack]

11. Where's 20th Century Fox? Don't they realize this is the perfect promotion

opportunity for an early DVD release of "Day After Tomorrow"?

They should get Al Gore to go down and sell them out of his car or something.

[Quetzal]

13. Get the fuck out of there

that is all I would say.

[Spinzonner]

16. Perhaps we should just evacuate Florida for the season

Of course, who would take them in ?

[onehandle]

18. They've been bending the path greatly over the last 48 hours.

It was going to head straight out into the Gulf. A strong pre-Fall front is pushing it from the west. Let's hope it pushes it out even further to the East.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. Latest recon puts central pressure at 916 mb...that makes Ivan the 3rd....

...most intense hurricane on record IF Ivan makes landfall on the U. S. at the current recorded strength:

1 Unnamed (FL Keys) 1935 5 892

2 Camille (MS, SE LA, VA) 1969 5 909

- Ivan (Unknown so far) 2004 5 916

3 Andrew (SE FL, SE LA) 1992 5a 922

[hatrack]

46. Still not the strongest ever recorded - that would be Gilbert in 1988

The lowest pressure ever recorded was 888 Mb during Gilbert's passage through the Carribean. However, Gilbert did weaken somewhat before hitting Mexico, so this record only applies to strongest hurricane, not to strongest at time of landfall.

As best I can remember they recorded sustained winds of 180 mph in Gilbert, which I can't even imagine.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

60. The list noted those hurricanes that hit the mainland U. S.

[GumboYaYa]

83. I lived through 2 of the 3 on that list, Camille and Andrew.

Camille was when I was very young so I have few memories, but the pictures are unbelievabe. We have pictures of rail ties (the big stainless stell ones) twisted up like pretzels.

Andrew scared the living bejeesus out of us. It was a hell storm still when it hit LA. I was in the direct path of the eye of that one and it sucked big time.

I pray for the peope in Florida. The difference between a 2-3 and a 5 is immense. It is like nothing you will have experienced before even if you have been through hurricanes. Get out of that state for the next week if you can. If you can not, find the sfaest place possible and hunker down. Good luck to all of you.

[spotbird]

22. God is sending a message alright.

Don't fuck with Mother Nature, she's not a Democrat and will fight back.

Why hasn't global warning been mentioned in the press?

[Blue Wally]

75. Because

Atlantic hurricanes are tied to the El Nino/La Nina cycle in the Pacific off the coast of Peru. We are currently on an "upcycle" after forty years on a "downcycle".

[catzies]

82. Yes, this is "the new normal." Miami Herald said that somewhere

in its hurricane coverage.

[redqueen]

84. Why do you think?

Bad fer bizness!

[Postman]

23. My Jerry Falwellian response...

God is punishing Florida for its corrupt and evil voting practices that put an evil, maniacal dictator in power.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

24. Infrared satellite image....

<>

[abburdlen]

26. Scary IR image from 3 days ago

That's enough to freak me out.

[calimary]

73. WHOA! Did you make that skull image? Or did the hurricane do that?

THAT is scary!

[redqueen]

85. That is creepy

I woulnd't have noticed it if you hadn't said anything...

[Citizen Daryl]

25. Where's Guantanamo In All Of This?

They've got guys penned outside in cages, right?

Shit.

[Blue Wally]

77. Wrong end of Cuba

Gitmo is at the eastern end

[attaturk]

28. Feel awful for Florida, but let's have a few thoughts for Jamaica

Ivan may weaken by the time it hits Florida.

But right now its a Cat-5 and it looks like it is going to go RIGHT over Jamaica on Friday as a Cat-5, and there is no place to go other than by getting off the Island to avoid it.

I'm sure the resorts are built to a reasonably decent standard, but for the typical Jamaican I'm pretty sure their dwelling isn't.

This could be really bad.

[shanti]

64. it will destroy jamaica

:-(

[shanti]

65. dupe

glitch

[shanti]

66. it will destroy jamaica

:-(

[cmf]

70. That's what I was thinking

looking at what it did to Grenada, people in Jamaica must be scared. I am keeping all of them in my prayers. it looks like it will miss Haiti, though, thank goodness. I can't even imagine the loss of life if a cat 5 hurricane hit Haiti.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

31. Category 5... 921 MB pressure and 160 MPH winds

yeah, it sounds bad.

[RivetJoint]

32. Jamaica is in for a rough Friday night. N/T

[calimary]

76. Bless their hearts... say a prayer, guys.

[sofa king]

33. Damage on top of damage

The homes of both of my parents have been torn up by the past two hurricanes.

Mom doesn't yet know how bad things are because she's been caring for elderly evacuees in Georgia, but neighbors say there is some damage of some sort. Dad's lost a chunk of his roof, which in turn allowed a cascade to wreck the ceilings of both floors and a lot of furniture. The roof won't be repaired before this one rolls through, so the only thing to do is to try to get stuff out of the way.

And that's nothing compared to the devastation in the islands.

But hey, there's always a silver lining. I'm unemployed, so I can devote my full attention to helping the folks out, which I wouldn't normally be able to do. I'm thinking that after I fix up my parents' places I'll be on enough of a roll that maybe I can go help out in Grenada or Jamaica. Looks like I'll be spending a lot of football season in the sun.

[indepat]

36. Whatever horrific the forces of nature deal, it's God's way to support W,

his policies, actions, and pre-emptive war(s).

[leesa]

37. Maybe Floridians ought to offer up Jebbie as a sacrifice to appease

God.

[Maddy McCall]

41. LOL!

Mother Nature is angry at Florida. :-)

[Zorra]

48. Mother nature is angry because Bu$h has the worst environmental

record in history by far. Very angry.

Floridians are going to have to sacrifice Katherine Harris, Porter Goss, and Glenda Hood along with Jebbie.

[Jacobin]

87. Now there's an idea

Throw him into the eye with leighs hanging around his neck. Maybe that would appease the hurricane gods

[Tight_rope]

39. Boy...God must be mad at Florida!....such bad luck!

[Ripley]

40. Take a deep breath!

It's way too early to tell where it's going. These things often change course in the last day before making landfall.

Don't panic yet. No wait, don't panic at all...just get prepared.

[Maddy McCall]

42. Yeah, maybe it'll hit Mississippi instead.

Actually, all of the gulf states should be VERY worried. You are right...NHC has had to change model-based predictions several times.

[Ripley]

44. Don't say that!!

I'm right next door to Miss!!! I am worried, but trying to remain calm.

Maybe it will just vaporize.

[Maddy McCall]

47. :-) I'm IN Mississippi. :-)

[ewagner]

45. Good advice Ripley.

The "butterfly effect" is still in play here. There are too many variables to calculate. Pay more attention 72, 48, and 24 hours out. The probabilities are more precise then.

That being said: I wish only the best for my friends and fellow DUers in Florida.

[hatrack]

49. I'll drink to that!

:toast:

The damned thing is gigantic, but there's still plenty of time for alterations in course and strength.

Stay tuned, keep checking with NOAA for updates, and be prepared to move. Jamaica is what worries me now, given that Ivan apparently just flattened Grenada, and has grown stronger since then.

[OKNancy]

50. GOPagainstGW

If you post future hurricane threads in LBN, please be more careful with the headline.

Use the headline on your link and don't editorialze.

I won't lock this one, but do better next time, Thanks

[SidDithers]

51. Maybe move it to GD? nt.

Sid

[GOPAgainstGW]

63. THE POST IS ACCURATE & FLORIDA HAS STARTED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS!

[mhr]

52. Bush Scheduled This With GOD So He Can Postpone The Elections

eom

[Blue_Roses]

53. this IS one powerful storm

Scroll over to the right if it doesn't show... I love these satelite imagies. Hurricanes are facisinating and I have only been in one which clipped Galveston years ago, however, they are nothing to take lightly--as we have seen from the past two that just recently went through Florida

[skygazer]

69. Wow

Beautiful, frightening image. The power of nature. I feel for all the people in the path of it and hope for the best for them but it is certainly a reminder that we are not the masters of our environment that we think we are. Humbling.

[lil-petunia]

57. WRONG. GOD doesn't want floridians. Period.

that voting thingie is pretty immaterial from his point of view.

[Heyo]

58. It's getting close to the intensity of Camille even..

which would make it the second most powerful..

If we bring pacific typhoons into this.. (same storm as a hurricane, just in a different place) we get quite a few higher ones...

The strongest ever I believe was Typhoon Tip... not sure of the lowest pressure on that one, I think it was around 888mb, maximum sustained winds of 190mph.

There was also a debatable incident when super-typhoon Paka passed over Guam that may have been the highest wind speed ever recorded on planet earth (around 241mph i think) which would have beaten the Mount Washington record of around 235mph (I'm sort of guessing 'cause I don't have the exact figures in front of me).. but all the wind measuring equipment on the island of Guam was destroyed by Paka except for a few unofficial readings, but some of them measured very high gusts up to the 230-240 range just as they were being destroyed.... these could be anomolies in the measurements resulting from the destruction of the devices.. so official the Mt. Washington record still stands.... certainly though the surface winds of Paka were extreme.

I noticed a typhoon in the pacific on TWC a few weeks ago that had MSW of 185 mph.... they really kick up over there in the pacific.

Heyo

[AspenRose]

59. My heart goes out to the Floridians....

I have an old high school friend who lives in Orlando now. I talked to her on the phone Saturday and her biggest concern was hoping that Ivan would stay away.

All this hurricane activity, however, DOES make me wonder if God is trying to get Jeb Bush's attention, however....a la "The Ten Commandments."

Soften your heart, Jeb, do the right thing by Florida...and maybe the hurricanes will stop making a beeline for your state.

(Couldn't hurt, now, could it?)

You DUers in Florida, STAY SAFE!

[GOPAgainstGW]

62. JUST IN - IVAN PROMPTS FLORIDA EVACUATIONS ORDERS!!!

Hurricane Ivan now Category 5, prompting new Florida evacuations

http://www.king5.com/topstories/stories/NW_090904NABhurricane_ivanLJ.fd349f44.html

KEY WEST, Fla. - Tourists and residents were told Thursday to evacuate the Florida Keys because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm, the most severe category of hurricanes

IVAN STILL CURRENTLY 3RD STRONGEST HURRICANE IN HISTORY, PRESENT WINDS 160 WITH MAX TO 195 MPH

[Snellius]

67. James Wolcott: "I root for hurricanes."

This was on James Wolcott's new blog last week:

I root for hurricanes. When, courtesy of the Weather Channel, I see one forming in the ocean off the coast of Africa, I find myself longing for it to become big and strong--Mother Nature's fist of fury, Gaia's stern rebuke. Considering the havoc mankind has wreaked upon nature with deforesting, stripmining, and the destruction of animal habitat, it only seems fair that nature get some of its own back and teach us that there are forces greater than our own. Sure, a hearty volcano can be enjoyable. Burning rivers of lava: so picturesque. But a volcano is stationary, like Dennis Hastert after a big lunch. It doesn't offer the same dramatic suspense. Hurricanes are in unpredictable flux. They move, change direction, strengthen, weaken, lose an eyewall, repair an eyewall; they seem to have volition and opera-diva personalities.

So there's something disappointing when a hurricane doesn't make landfall, or peters out into a puny Category One. Reporters and weather announcers may profess relief and gratitude that residents were spared the full unleashing of the vortex, but their coverage belies this. They love having reporters shouting into microphones on rain-lashed beaches as the stray yacht gets flung around like a bath toy. The helicopter shots of rows of mobile rooms smashed as if stomped on by a giant boot are money shots to the news networks.

Hurricane Frances also has a heraldic quality. Camille Paglia observed on Salon in February, 2003 that the explosion of the Columbia shuttle on the eve of the war on Iraq was a "stunning omen," one that would make a Roman general think twice. A catastrophe strewing death, fire, and human remains across Bush's home state of Texas was inauspicious to our undertaking; and so it has proven to be. Frances is the second hurricane to afflict Florida, home of brother Jeb, in rapid succession.

The gods are not pleased.

http://jameswolcott.com/

[amazona]

80. what a jerk

He roots for hurricanes? And he quotes Paglia. Sounds like a real winner...not.

[sidestreamer]

86. Wolcott is an idiot

I'd like to see him get struck by a natural disaster and continue to write stuff like that.

[Larkspur]

88. I think it's the Goddess who isn't pleased

I think She divorced her god.

I find it interesting in the picture above that Ivan the Terrible hurricane looks to be making a bulls eye for Disney World.

[GOPAgainstGW]

68. IVAN-Gov. Jeb Bush's Office Just Announced Full-Phased Florida Evacuations

Ivan Update-09.09.04-11.36 EST

In response to approaching Hurricane Ivan, Gov. Jeb Bush's office just announced full-phased Florida evacuations, starting now and in stages through Sunday, according to just reported local Miami television stations.

Miami Hearld Article Florida Evacuations

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/9618529.htm
Access Code to read article: [e-mail]/bogus1

First stage of a mass Florida evacuation ordered that will include an airlift of hospital patients.

---------

Hurricane Ivan exploded into a top-line Category 5 storm this morning, hurricane forecasters said Florida -- including South Florida -- appeared to be in great danger, and officials in the Florida Keys ordered the first phase of a total evacuation.

They told tourists and residents of mobile homes to leave today. They said a phased evacuation of all other Keys residents will begin Friday. At least 83,000 residents and tourists are in the Keys this week, officials said.

[lil-petunia]

78. ohoh. what is that blob coming after Ivan?

there is that telltale line of clouds, ready to begin swinging into another storm center, about 2 weeks behind Ivan.

Will it start that spin and growth needed to turn into jackie or whoever they will name her?

That was the same place that Ivan started 16 days ago.

[bobbyboucher]

81. Hysterical.

A great many things can happen to that storm before "3rd Strongest Hurricane in History to Direct Hit Florida".

Don't put the carraige before the horse. While it could hit Florida, "direct hit" is subjective. While it could be the "3rd strongest", it is not now and there is a lot of land between where it is now and Florida, which could weaken it. No one knows for sure.

Ease up on the hysteria.