A miracle? Did Ivan just miss Jamaica?

[spinbaby]

First thing I did when I got up this morning was check on Ivan. It looks like it took a sudden left turn overnight just south of Jamaica instead of rolling right over it. Please someone tell me it missed Jamaica by enough to make a difference.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html

[nofurylike]

1. yes, Ivan took a left *just* before Jamaica. was miraculous!

not just straight left either, but down around the curve of the island!

still hit hard, but not AS hard as was going to be. looks much better for Florida too!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_5day.html


peace!

[ixion]

2. well, jamaica got something, so not a total miss

but that's better than going right over the top I guess, and plus it put the curve out into the gulf farther and saved Key West and the Gulf keys as well, which makes me happy.

:-)


http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNationalWide.asp?loc=usa&seg=StormCenter&prodgrp=TrackingCharts&product=HurTrack2&prodnav=none&pid=none

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Neither a miss nor a miracle

Jamaica got pounded. They simply missed out on the eye, and about an hour of the very worst winds. But the islanders will have a lot of cleaning up to do, and I have no doubt that there will be a lot of homeless people.

It's possible the storm churned up colder water as it approached the island, and the quick change in sea temperature affected its path. This has been observed often but is still not well understood -- probably because it's a chaotic-systems effect of storms. Last year, IIRC, a Cat4 hurricane was going to hit the USA, and abruptly collapsed into a Cat1. One of the theories was that it was a cold-water upwelling as the hurricane moved into shallower water.

I'm sure there are still a few surprises left in Ivan. For one thing, it seems to be strengthening anyway. Keep an eye on it -- graphs and charts are in the Science/Ecology forum.

--bkl

[FloridaPat]

4. Not good. Ivan is following the exact same path as Charlie - even

making a left turn at Jamica. I am not a happy camper here. A 180 would have been nice. I've been through 2 hurricanes in the last month and don't want anymore.

[FloridaPat]

5. The right hand side of the hurricane has the worst winds. So Jamica

was really pounded last night. Hopefully they weren't hit as hard as Granada.

[thinkingwoman]

6. Charley took a sudden turn

before jamaica too.

Very interesting.

[spinbaby]

7. Diverted by mountains?

Jamaica, unlike most of the Caribbean islands, is quite mountainous. Perhaps that does something to the wind currents that encourages the hurricane to turn. Just speculating here--I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[thinkingwoman]

8. could be

beats my theory.

P.S. I have no idea what I'm talking about either...but those two turns were unexpected by meteorologists who should know what they are talking about.