Could Ivan hit New Orleans?

[spotbird]

Here is the track of Camille in 1968.


Over night Ivan took a westward turn, expanding the forecast range westward.


New Orleans isn't in the forecasted range yet, but it isn't that far out either. As I understand it, these forecasts are still relatively in the dark ages.

Any thoughts?

[tedoll78]

1. That's what I'm scared about.

My parents, grandmother, and sister live in New Orleans. If they were to be inundated with eight or ten feet of water, I don't see how the pumping system could manage it.

I've held fears for a while about a big hurricane so powerful that it puts New Orleans underwater for a good stretch of time (I'm talking months here). Let's hope this one isn't it..

[kayell]

2. Possible but so far a very low percentage chance

Anyone along the gulf coast should be watching this thing VERY carefully.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/110845.shtml?

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

19.6N 81.0W 47 X X X 47 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 8 8
21.0N 82.0W 23 9 1 X 33 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3
22.8N 83.0W X 20 7 1 28 KEY WEST FL X 5 15 2 22
MKJS 185N 779W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 11 7 18
MWCG 193N 814W 42 X X X 42 FT MYERS FL X X 7 10 17
MUCM 214N 779W 3 2 X 1 6 VENICE FL X X 5 13 18
MUCF 221N 805W 9 14 X 1 24 TAMPA FL X X 2 14 16
MUSN 216N 826W 7 22 1 X 30 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 14 14
MUHA 230N 824W X 20 7 1 28 ST MARKS FL X X X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W X 10 9 2 21 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 14 14
MMCZ 205N 869W X 1 3 3 7 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 14 14
MYAK 241N 776W X X 1 2 3 PENSACOLA FL X X X 11 11
MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 2 3 MOBILE AL X X X 8 8
MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 5 6 GULFPORT MS X X X 7 7
MARATHON FL X 4 12 3 19 BURAS LA X X X 6 6
MIAMI FL X X 7 6 13 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 4 4
W PALM BEACH FL X X 3 8 11 GULF 29N 85W X X X 16 16
FT PIERCE FL X X 1 9 10 GULF 29N 87W X X X 14 14
COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 9 10 GULF 28N 89W X X X 9 9
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 10 10 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3

[Eloriel]

3. My only thought is that that would be

an unbelievable catastrophe. Several times I've seen specials on various cable networks about the horror of a big hurricane hitting N.O. esp since it's actually below sea level and the hurricane buffers they built aren't high enough for a really big storm.

But don't forecasters have a way of looking at the various pressure systems that steer hurricanes? I don't think the CURRENT projected path includes N.O.

[spotbird]

5. You are right, it doesn't include N.O.,

it just looks so creepy to me, the path is similar to Camille and all.

I'd guess these forecasters do know about the pressure systems, but it is awfully close.

[nostamj]

current NOAA projection 11am today

[JackDragna]

4. It COULD hit a number of places..

..but until it gets close, there's no need to panic or make fruitless speculation. I live near New Orleans and am obviously concerned by the seemingly constant westward shift of forecast projections, but until it comes knocking on my doorstep, I refuse to be an alarmist.

[spotbird]

8. Isn't there a big issue about evacuating N.O in time?

Sorry about the needless speculation, but I seem to remember that the road out of town won't accommodate a mass evacuation.

Is that the case?

[tedoll78]

9. There are four main evacuation routes out of New Orleans.

1) I-10 west
2) I-55 north
3) Causeway north
4) I-10 east

You'll probably notice that all four routes involve some travel over bridges, which is the major sticking point. If all of New Orleans were to pack-up and leave at once, it'd be a madhouse on the roads. Pretty much like everywhere else.

My parents always take the I-55 north escape route to Mississippi; they like to go to Brookhaven, MS for their evacuations, to the same hotel every year, lol. Once you reach Ponchatoula, LA (about 50 minutes from New Orleans/Kenner), you're pretty much home free as far as bridge travel is concerned.

[Randers]

6. Last night someone on the weather channel

was showing how the high and low pressure systems were guiding thier predictions. I wish they would show such things more often and update as they change.

There were inferreds (or something) at higher and lower altitudes and the current forcast made a lot more sense. Seems like the maps are ususally dumbed down.

[TexasProgresive]

7. It's possible at this stage-

any where in the Gulf. BTW- Camille Aug 17, 1969. I didn't go through it but I received training at Keesler AFB starting Jan 70. My Dad owned property in Bay St. Louis and Pass Christian so I was fairly familiar with the area. I was awestruck at the devestation I witnessed throught the bus window as we approached Biloxi. If this storm targets the Cresent City-get out- Go north as far as you can and get away from the river.

on edit: the computer models are settling down- it looks like the panhandle of Fla for sure.