Is it to early to start evacuating New Orleans (re:Ivan)???

[Junkdrawer]

Seems the projected landfall keeps moving West with each new advisory.

Currently, it's not too far east of New Orleans:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics/refresh/AL0904W_sm+gif/131458W_sm.gif

Read this article:

The furious storm: one wild hurricane could drown a major American City. Can scientist prevent the disaster in time?

Science World, Oct 18, 2002 by Larry O'Hanlon

Here's a tip from the experts: If you're in New Orleans when the "Big One" hits, have a lifeboat handy. Some scientist warn that the right hurricane--a tropical cyclone with at least 74-mile-per-hour winds--could strike the Gulf Coast in a way that would hurl millions of gallons of water to turn the city known as the Big Easy into the Big Soup Bowl (see map, next page).

A major flood could submerge much of central New Orleans beneath 20 feet of water, leaving many of the metropolitan area's 1.3 million residents clinging to rooftops--a prospect that has engineers and city planners scrambling for defensive strategies. "It's the luck of the draw," says hurricane expect Hugh Willoughby at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NDAA). He thinks it's a matter of when--not if--the Big One will pound New Orleans During some annual hurricane season between June and November.

Why is New Orleans so vulnerable? Try these three main reasons:

* Sandwiched between Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, most of the city lies below sea level. A flood that gushes over shielding levees (earthen walls built in the late 1800s to protect against river overflow) would submerge New Orleans underwater.

* Marshes, fresh and saltwater swamps of mud and diverse plant life, divide New Orleans from the Gulf of Mexico. They once acted as barriers from storm surges--high water accompanying storms. Now marshes are quickly eroding, or wearing away. This is partly because levees block and reroute the Mississippi's periodic flooding cycles, which spread mud and sediment (rock particles) that shore up marshes. In some places, the gulf has receded 32 to 48 kilometers (20 to 30 miles) closer to New Orleans.

* The number and intensity of Atlantic Ocean hurricanes tend to increase in cycles every few decades, experts say. "We've just entered a more active phase," says Willoughby (see "How Hurricanes Form," p. 24).

....
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1590/is_3_59/ai_95845370

[prodigal_green]

1. Depends...is it a red city or a blue city

officials will only evacuate a city that is likely to deliver votes for the chimp; otherwise, they can all drown. </sarcasm>

If you have someplace to go a little further inland, I would highly suggest that you do so.

I was explaining this morning to a co-worker why New Orleans is so vulnerable. I really hope it doesn't hit the city directly.

[Maple]

2. Well this one alone would do it for me

* Sandwiched between Lake Pontchartrain and the Mississippi River, most of the city lies below sea level. A flood that gushes over shielding levees (earthen walls built in the late 1800s to protect against river overflow) would submerge New Orleans underwater.

[Junkdrawer]

3. From the same article:

City planners worry that evacuating New Orleans' residents during a hurricane could be deadly: (1) Interstate 10 can easily flood from Lake Pontchartrain. (2) When winds exceed 50 mph, the 24-mile Lake Pontchartrain Causeway is shut. (3) Traffic gridlock would clog Interstates 10 and 59.

[asthmaticeog]

4. Oh god,

my faovrite cousin just moved there, and I have tickets and reservations to visit on October 8th. Hope to god there's a city (and more importantly, a cousin) left to visit.

[YellowRubberDuckie]

24. My cousin is the GM of a jewelry store in NO...

And I'm worried about her and her family.
Duckie

[likesmountains 52]

5. Ivan

Just talked to my son who is at college in New Orleans. University officials are meeting right now ,and most students and faculty feel that they will be instructed to leave sooner rather than later. He said it is pouring rain right now and people are getting kind of edgy...

[markus]

6. First, yes a levee breeh during an worst case storm would be a disaster

There are several ways to deal with evacuation:

1) Leave early. I have lived elsewhere since 1986, but I still have friends and family there. People are increasingly evacuating themselves voluntarily in advance of large storms.

2) At some point, you have to close the evacuation routes. Every single piece of pavement out of New Orleans crosses water at some point. If you dont' close them, people will drown on the causeways (not just "The" Causeway, but all of the elevated sections of highway).

3) At some point, the plan always was for "vertical evacuation". This means getting as many people as possible up in a building higher than the storm surge. I'm not sure how well this would work, but most large buildings in N'wawlins have been designed with hurricanese in mind. The Super Dome alone could hold tens of thousands of people, if need be, from the lowest lying areas.

The real problem is, if you got enough water into the city, it would flood the lift stations. Without the lift (pumping) stations, the water would stay there.

[DoYouEverWonder]

7. If you are in New Orleans

and have a place to go that's way out of town, like in another state, I would go.

[Junkdrawer]

8. Question: Is there enough National Guardsmen to protect...

an evacuated city from looting?

:shrug:

[Jacobin]

13. They would need boats

If a category 4 or above hits NOLA from the southeast to the northwest, it'll be under 20 feet of water for months, as it is built in a bowl and the huge pumps which pump it out after rainstorms would be under water and would not work.

I dearly love New Orleans, and I hope to hell this doesn't happen.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. I think I would...

just get the hell out of there now.

I've lived through many hurricanes and usually threw parties, but never in a place so dangerous.

Sounds too much like Bangladesh in a typhoon, and the thing about all that industrial and chemical goop floating around is too scary for words on just so many levels.

[fudge stripe cookays]

10. This sounds eerily like Galveston in 1900.....

Sandwiched between the Gulf and the Bay. And the city not very high at all. I believe New Orleans is actually lower than Galveston was. Galveston was, I think around 5 to 15 feet above sea level at its highest.

I hope for their sakes that Ivan hits further east; it'd be a tragedy for such a beautiful city to take the brunt.

Ya'll take care if you're there. Please be safe.
FSC

[fishnfla]

11. I would say yes it is too early for several reasons

1. It is a slow moving storm, there is time to wait and see. People can prepare, but there is time yet
2. The forecast predictions are more to the east, the steering currents are looking for an eastward track, and that is the natural tendency of these systems
3. the "hard shoulder" the NE corner where the storm is the worst will be to the east
4.people should not evacuate until told to do so-the unnecc. evacuees cause problems for those who need it more
5. my personal opinion is that evacuation can cause more problems than it solves, (getting out, being away, and getting back in) Unless you are in the direct path of the storm or in a low lying area or you are ordered to do so, of course its different

[Mr Bojangles]

12. It's never too early.

If you feel threatened, and you have somewhere to go/someone to stay with, by all means, get the hell outta there. If you wait too long you may not be able to make it due to traffic.

Post-Charley, when everyone that evacuated to here (Orlando) from Tampa tried to get back that Saturday morning, it was a nightmare. I-4 was a parking lot from Downtown Orlando all the way to Tampa (that's somewhere in the neighborhood of 85-90 miles), there were reports of it taking upwards of 8 hours to make a drive that under normal circumstances would take an hour and a half.

Besides, we all know that as soon as the weather gets weird (rain, snow, what have you) a switch goes off in people's heads and they decide that it would be a great time to drive like a total f-ing moron.

As a seasoned hurricane vet (read: lived in FL all of my 23 years, save for a 6 month stint in Kansas) I can tell you that the best bet is to get out before the mass exodus starts.

Best of luck to you and yours.

[Jacobin]

14. Bingo. It can never be too early, only too late

Limited roadways out of the city, all of which will be clogged with traffic.

[Junkdrawer]

15. Latest Probability Chart not looking good

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904P+GIF/132133P.gif

[AnnInLa]

16. Junkdrawer! I was going to offer my house to any

of you New Orleans DUers, but am getting a little worried about Abbeville now. Hmmm, cher', these cajun cats don't know which way to jump! Stay safe, let me know if you need shelter, seriously.

[Junkdrawer]

17. I'm in PA, but if I were in the Big Easy, I'd get out now...

The probability charts now say 18%, about a 1-in-5 chance. The projected landfall has a 22% chance. Translation: too early to tell, BUT it's forecast to accelerate so a decision MUST be made tomorrow morning.

And once (or if) it's called, good luck with traffic and finding a room.

1 in 5. You have better odds with Russian Roulette (1 in 6).

[Junkdrawer]

18. PS: Thanks for the offer anyway...

:hi:


:kick:

[Junkdrawer]

19. Dear God - It looks like they will play Russian Roulette - No Evacuation..

....

New Orleans last suffered a direct hit from a hurricane in 1965 when Category-3 Betsy struck the city.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency has prepared for a possible hit on New Orleans, Director Michael Brown said.

``For the first time ever in the history of the organization, we started doing catastrophic planning, and New Orleans was the first place we did that kind of planning,'' Brown said in an interview. ``We're pretty prepared right now if a catastrophic disaster does strike the city of New Orleans.''

Evacuation

Terry Tullier, the director of New Orleans's office of emergency preparedness, said experts have estimated it would take as long as 72 hours to evacuate the city's 1.2 million residents.

``Much of this has to do with time and how many roads we have out of here,'' Tullier said in an interview. ``We have limited in and out, and part of the roads go under water when the weather gets very nasty.''
....

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=a4yG33wkp0BM&refer=europe

72 hours to evacuate and it's now about 40 hours to impact.

:scared:

[sendero]

20. A few years back...

... there was a documentary, Nova I think, where the problems New Orleans faces were explained in detail.

For the Big Easy, it is not a matter of "if" there will be a disaster, it is a matter of "when". Let's hope that "when" is a long way off, but if I were there, I'd be getting out of town. Even if there is only a 10% chance, if that storm hits the flooding will be brutal and many who are there will not make it.

[nostamj]

21. latest projected path for Ivan (NOAA)

seems to be drifting ever so slightly west since yesterday... hope any of you in NO are prepared

[sleipnir]

22. I fear the fatality numbers will be quite high this time.

I wouldn't be shocked to see 300+ Deaths from this storm if it hits NO.

Of course, they can't evacuate, as it's impossible this late and the only way out is a single road that has to be closed when winds get above 50mph and trying to get 1.2 million people out in less than two days would be nothing less than a DeVillian miracle.

Lets hope it breaks up a bit, but NO has been on track for days and the order should have come on Saturday to begin evacuations, but of course the officials were playing wait and see.

Now, I fear we will wait and see how bad this storm is and if NO is even still around by the end of the week.

[Jacobin]

23. It's bad but there is more than one road out

The causeway bridge to the north across Lake Pontchartrain gets closed as you say, but there is I-10 east and I-10 west that gets you out to higher ground. However, I-10 is clogged like a parking lot most of the time just from normal traffic.

A couple of years back when one was threatening NOLA, they turned the Superdome into an evacuation shelter, as it is pretty high and can hold lots of folks. Probably the best idea for those who can't get out in time.

I'm worried about New Orleans. It wouldn't just be a lot of wind damage, trees and cleanup. It would turn NOLA into a 20 foot deep lake for months, if it hits right, because of the levees and the fact that the pumps would be underwater and couldn't pump the city dry.

[Junkdrawer]

26. The dilemma is that you have to order evacuations at 10% probabilities...

When the probabilities hit 50%, it's too late. There is no good Plan B. They decided to roll-the-dice.

[indepat]

25. Moved from New Orleans after Betsy but before Camille, which would have

caused catastrophic flooding according to a knowledgeable friend, had Camille been centered several miles to the west.