British forecast for Iraq even more gloomy than the CIA's

[Owlet]

http://www.riia.org/index.php?id=189&pid=168

"There are three possible scenarios for the future of Iraq claims a new report published today by Chatham House. The likely default scenario is that Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish factions will fail to cohere under the transitional governments, leading to fragmentation and civil war, says a new report published by Chatham House.

The report ‘Iraq in Transition: Vortex or Catalyst’ claims that the hand over will lead to three likely scenarios:

1.If the Shi’a, Sunni and Kurd factions fail to adhere to the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG), Iraq could fragment or descend into civil war.
2.If the transitional government, backed up by a supportive US presence, can assert control, Iraq may well hold together.
3.A Regional Remake could overtake the other two scenarios if the dynamics unleashed by Shi’a and Kurdish assertiveness trigger repercussions in neighbouring states.

The first scenario is the most likely. Kurdish separatism and Shi’a assertiveness will work against a smooth transition to elections while the Sunni faction continues to engage in resistance. Antipathy to the US presence will grow but in a fragmented, not unified manner, that could threaten civil war. Shi'a Arabs will not settle for a subservient position, Kurds will not relinquish the gains in internal self-government and policing during the 1990s and Sunnis will neither accept a Shi’a-led central government nor a Kurdish autonomy in the north. If the IIG or its successors fail to assert itself as an organisation capable of appealing across Iraq’s societal cleavages, Iraq will fragment."

[xray s]

1. "Well, that's their guess"

"I don't pay much a-ten-shun to those egg head types. They just sit around all day and try to guess what's gonna happen. Me? I have faith in dem-mock-racy. So take your fancy studies and go bother someone else with them. I ain't interested."