The Fourth Turning --America in Crisis Now?

[scarletlib]

"The Fourth Turning (An American Prophecy) by William Strauss and Neil Howe

As a history buff, I have often been intrigued by the fact that we humans seem to be repeating ourselves and making the same mistakes over and over again. The book cited above discusses this issue and has some very enlightening and frightening insights into our current situation. I highly recommend that everyone who can get a copy of this book and share its insights with your family, friends and community. I am offering a brief explanation of the book. It is not hard to read, but is detailed and has many charts to further clarify.

The authors state that we post-renaissance westerners tend to think of history and progress as a linear, straight-line progression. They postulate (along with others of note) that our history is cyclical in nature. If we are lucky we will spiral upward, if not then we will spiral downward.

Our history moves through 4 Turnings in a Cycle or Saeculum. This cycle is generally 80 to 100 yrs long and most of us will live to go through the 4 cycles. Since 1465 there have been 6 completed Anglo-American saeculums. At the time this book was written in 1997 we were in the third turning of the 7th saeculum. During each saeculum a generation is born. This generation will be shaped by the cycle it is born in and will have distinctive characteristics that will hold true for the entire generation over time. In addition, throughout history these generations will also share characteristics with its prior ancestral generations. (Example: The Lost Generation of 1883-1900 shares characteristics with the current generation GenX born 1961-1981.)

At the time this book was written the authors anticipated a crisis sometime circa 2005 that could be triggered by a Constitutional crisis, terrorism, economic devaluation or some other unforeseen problem. A Crisis is a critical time for the country and there is no guarantee that the society/nation will emerge intact at the end of it. The reason for this is simple: The elder leaders in the Crisis will be the Prophet Generation who may carry their passion and idealism to a fiery extreme. The followers will be the Heroes who will be entering into young adulthood. The Heroes will follow the lead the prophets set forth for them. This can mean that if there is a war the heroes will willingly go forth to fight. Wars fought in a crisis tend to be all out without regard to death & destruction (WWII). A crisis does not necessarily mean war but if war does occur, it will be deadly and serious. The generation in the middle, the Nomads, will be entering mid-life and moving into positions of authority. The Nomad generation can be tough, pragmatic and may be the ones who need to step in to temper the Prophet generation’s passion if it gets out of hand.

Personally, I think we entered the beginning stages of the crisis in Dec. 2000 with the unconstitutional installation of GWB as president. The 9-11 attack is a continuation. We are just in the beginning stages of this crisis. All of us Boomers need to be aware of our generational characteristics as we lead in this crisis and you Gen X’s please be prepared to do what you can to temporize the passions. I hope that we come out of this crisis a better nation but there is no guarantee.

I will now explain the current saeculum with its 4 turnings and the generation that is born during that turning. A saeculum begins with:


1) A High (The American High – 1946-1964). A high occurs when a previous crisis has been resolved. Characteristics are a strong government and community institutions. Strong respect for authority. A united, can-do, optimistic attitude. The Prophet Generation is born during a High (Boomers 1943-1960). Child Prophets are loved, indulged, and grow up in a permissive but conformist society. Prophets are passionate, idealistic. Their principle endowments are in the domains of vision, values and religion. (Famous prophets: Obi Wan Kenobi, Darth Vader, Gandalf, Franklin Roosevelt, Churchhill, Lenin)

2) An Awakening (The Consciousness Revolution – 1964-1984) During an awakening new spiritual and social ideals burst forth. Individual enlightenment is sought versus community conformity. During this generation Nomads are born (13’ers or GenX 1961-1981) Nomads grow up as under protected children in an increasingly alienated society. In their youth, they are thought of as hell-raisers. Their principle endowments are in the domains of liberty, survival and honor. (Famous nomads: Han Solo, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Hemmingway, George Washington, Patton, Hitler)

3) The Unraveling (Culture Wars – 1984 – 2005?) During an unraveling the changes/values of the Awakening are incorporated into society but there is a deep feeling of dissatisfaction leading to pessimism. During this time institutions, communities and government are at their weakest. Pragmatism, self-reliance and laissez-faire attitudes prevail. During an unraveling a generation of Heroes is born (Millennials – 1982 -- ?). Heroes are increasingly protected by their parents, cherished & brought up with high expectations of their abilities and accomplishments. Their principal endowments are in the domains of community, affluence and technology. (Famous Heroes: Luke Skywalker, Frodo, Thomas Jefferson, JFK)

4) The Crisis— (Millennial Crisis – 2005? - ?) This 4th Turning arises in response to sudden threats or previous issues which are now perceived as dire. One simple imperative arises: The society must prevail. This will require solid public consensus, aggressive institutions and personal sacrifice. During this period the Artist Generation is born. The Artist is a protected child who is expected to obey, be helpful, and be self-reliant during the period of the crisis. Their principal endowments are in the domains of pluralism, expertise and due process. (Famous Artists are Woodrow Wilson, Colin Powell, Walter Mondale, Martin Luther King Jr.)

Much of what I have read on DU during the past 2 yrs. supports this thesis. I do believe this nation is on the threshold of a series of major crises in the next few years: environmental, fiscal, constitutional and international. The current administration is certainly (in my opinion) making all of these issues worse than they should have been when the final reckoning comes. The thought of the Dark Prophets—such as Gingrich, Bush, Delay, Chaney running this country during this time gives me pause for great fear and worry.

[bluestateguy]

1. I read that book

And I think we are transitioning into the 4th turning now. Still, I think we are more 3rd Turning at this time than 4th. I mean, only a few months after 9/11 we were right back to preoccupation with JLo, Laci Peterson, Martha Peterson and the 3rd Turning culture of spectacle. If Bush wins, the 4th Turning has arrived, and it won't be pretty. Nor is there any guarantee that America will emerge from it triumphantly. I don't buy into all that American exceptionalist bullshit. If Kerry wins, I think we can transition a little smoother into the 4th Turning, but it has to happen. With the right people in power, a 4th Turning may be a chance to have a real national debate about widening class inequalities, national health care and a recommittment to what FDR called the "economic bill of rights" in his 1944 State of the Union Address.

[scarletlib]

2. I'm glad you read the book

I got mine from BuzzFlash and just finished it about two weeks ago. Between going through Hurricane Francis and losing lights for several days, etc. I was thinking about how I could post this.

Whether we are in crisis now or on the threshhold, I think it is important that we be aware of the generational characteristics we share. I really do see these characteristics in my generation and in the GenX.

I only hope and pray that Kerry wins. He will be the right man for the times as opposed to bush and his evil crew.