Place your bets! - When will oil hit $50 per barrel?

[arcos]

A month ago oil prices nearly broke the $50 barrier, only to come back down. Back then I started a thread on this same topic. Obviously we were all wrong in our predictions.

Well, oil is up nearly $3 for the week, closing today at $48.35, and I think it is time to place our bets again: When will oil hit $50?

If you want to check the old thread, here it is: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2239376


I say Friday... it will hit $50 on Friday.

[whistle]

1. Monday....

[fearnobush]

2. We will hit $60 oil when Putin closes Yukos or portions of it due

to the tax they owe. Putin may also do this just to piss off Bu$h.

[arcos]

3. well...

Apparently the Russian government will strip Yukos of their licenses next week...

[SpiralHawk]

6. Good Old Pootey Poot is pissed at kOmmAnder* cHimPee

That's for sure. Earlier this week he spoke to the press about the involvement of BushCo (via its wholely owned subsidiary, the US Government), in supporting Chechen rebels. Those are the rebels being held responsible by Putin for the tragic school massacre of children and teachers last week.

Pootey and Bushy, you will remember, have "looked into each other's eyes, and seen each other's souls."

I'm willing to bet Putin spewed CHUNKS after getting a gander at what the Chimp is sporting in the "soul department."

http://cnnstudentnews.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0111/17/cg.00.html

[Robbien]

4. Tomorrow.

Because I just read a newly released article entitled "Refineries ask to borrow oil from U.S. stockpile"

Yikes!

[bahrbearian]

5. Friday

[NinetySix]

7. Yeah, but what TIME on Friday?

n/t

[arcos]

10. well, I was talking about when will it CLOSE above $50...

although you are right, I didn't write that in my original post :p

[NinetySix]

16. I was just goofin'

The only point I was trying to make is that it's inevitable, and it's coming SOON. Hey, buy your Texaco stock today! (Maybe the dividends, taxed at only 15%, can help you pay for your next tank!)

[nodictators]

8. $50/bbl was bin Laden's goal

Bush and Osama will be celebrating soon. And the Energy boys are all smiles these days.

[Bluebear]

9. How about $100 a barrel?

OIL prices could potentially hit $100 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned yesterday - as the cost of US light crude hit a 21-year record of almost $44.

Adam Sieminski, Deutsche’s global energy strategist, claimed that oil supplies have become so tight in recent weeks that a serious disruption in the Middle East could send prices rocketing to unprecedented heights.

He said: "It is worth asking ourselves - ‘what would happen tomorrow if we lost four million barrels a day, due to some accident?’ Or let’s say Iraq’s two million barrels a day became unavailable. OPEC’s got no spare capacity. And that could be it - $100 per barrel."

Sieminski stressed that this was not a wild claim. "The last time OPEC was at 95-100 per cent capacity was in 1973-74, and again around 1980. And disruptions put prices up by 50 to 100 per cent.

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=887522004

[arcos]

11. well, let's start by $50... we can move to $100 later

;)

[arcos]

12. morning kick n/t

[Pepperbelly]

13. 11/3. nt

[OneTwentyoNine]

14. Nov 3rd,the phony reason now is Hurrican Ivan from a week ago...nt

[OneTwentyoNine]

15. Here's a chart for about 33 years....

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/chron.html

Notice that the price per barrel was never more than about $23 with Clinton in office,well...until 2000 when Gore was running and it went to $31. After the "raise the price artificially" scam ran it course the price dropped like a rock.

Prices during the Clinton administration were from about $9.00 to $23 per barrel and Bush said the Clinton administration had no working Energy policy. Wonder what he calls his $50.00 per barrel Energy policy?

David

[NinetySix]

17. He calls it: "GRAVY"

n/t

[Spider Jerusalem]

23. You seem to have an incredibly limited understanding of economics.

Demand for oil has been INCREASING every year. Production has been DECLINING for the past four. Demand is now almost even with production; an OPEC spokesman has said, on record, "there is no excess capacity". Thus, the price has been increasing. Also, the oil price in DOLLARS has been going up because the dollar is tremendously devalued on global currency markets; the crude price per barrel in EUROS has been much more stable.

Demand for petroleum is anticipated to outpace supply within a year, especially with added demand from China and India; then people will look back wistfully at the days of $50/bbl. oil. The economic and physical realities of the petroleum supply picture are such that it's essentially rather stupid to expect the price to drop down to $30 a barrel again. I am continually amazed, but no longer very surprised, at how many people are so incredibly ignorant of these facts.

[OneTwentyoNine]

25. And you have an incredible lack of understanding about BS

Or do you really buy into a 15 cent per gallon hike because a hurricane spends an hour over Mobile?? Thats how much gas went up here. A year or two ago we had prices jacked here by as much as .35 per gallon overnight. Why? because of a refinery fire in Chicago. Only one problem...we never receive any of our fuel from that refinery.

I know World demand is up,hell it will always go up until alternative fuels are developed, this isn't any huge revelation. I just find it a wee bit hard to believe that demand has gone up SO much in the last four years that we have to pay .75 cents per gallon more than when Clinton was in office. I'd almost venture to guess that demand is flat or down in the US because of these prices. I know I don't do any extra driving.

There is the economic aspect of this as well as the Bullshit, Oil men in power,get what you can get aspect. Believe which ever one you want....

[Spider Jerusalem]

28. I said nothing about hurricanes or any other short-term factors.

And China is now the world's third largest producer of automobiles; five MILLION in the past year. The Chinese automobile industry is growing by leaps and bounds, as is the number of Chinese who can afford to buy them. The situation is much the same in India; Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Ford and GM are all expanding operations there. These are countries which both have populations in excess of ONE BILLION; for even 1% (or less) of the population of each contry to be able to afford automobiles would lead to severe spikes in petroleum demand and consumption. Couple that with the fact that production has remained flat and even declined slightly overall in the past five years, along with the fact that discovery lags so far behind consumption that it will never catch up (ONE barrel of oil is found for every FIVE that are used) and the picture begins to look quite bleak indeed.

And, in closing, I suggest that you have some vague idea of what you're talking about before you cry "BULLSHIT" at somethig that contradicts you.

[Petrodollar Warfare]

27. Cheap Oil is Dead...my vote for quote of this decade...

(Here's some misc. quotes that are noteworthy...)

“Every generation has its taboo, and ours is this: that the resource upon which our lives have been built is running out. We don't talk about it because we cannot imagine it. This is a civilization in denial.”
- George Monibot, The UK Guardian, December 2, 2003


“The conclusion is clear: if we do not immediately plan to make the switch to renewable energy - faster, and backed by far greater investment than currently envisaged - then civilisation faces the sharpest and perhaps most violent dislocation in recent history.”
- Michael Meacher, former member of British Parliament,U.K. environment minister from 1997 to 2003, quoted from his January 2004 article "Plan for a World Without Oil", Financial Times


"Cheap oil is dead. You are never going to see oil priced at $25 a barrel again.”….”We are approaching the plateau of production; these are the first signs that we are there. As I said, cheap oil is history."
- Dr. Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning, Iranian National Oil Company (NIOC), August 2004


"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."
- George Orwell, author of Nineteen Eighty-Four

[Rockholm]

18. Friday Sounds Good. What Does Houston Think?

Hey All...I was in college in Houston in the early-mid 80's. I saw saw Houston go from boomtown to bustville. Money was freee-flowing and things were quite swell before the oil bust. Things were very bleak during those down times. Can anyone in Houston give us an idea how great things are down there now? THe rest of us are "hurting" due to high oil prices. Just curious?

[AmerDem]

19. $50 a barrel is the least of our worries at this point.

4 more years of these fascist fucks and you will be wishing for $50 a barrel.

[arcos]

20. AP: Oil Prices Climb Despite Gov't Statement

Oil Prices Climb Despite Gov't Statement

WASHINGTON - Oil prices inched closer to $50 a barrel Thursday even as the Bush administration offered to tap the nation's emergency stockpile of crude on behalf of refiners whose supply was disrupted by Hurricane Ivan.

It would be the first time the government loaned oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in almost two years.

While analysts said the impact on red-hot energy markets would ultimately depend on the amount of oil made available, they expected the size of any loans — and the effect on prices — to be small.

"If there is any oil loaned from the reserve it will be minimal and certainly not enough ... to make up for oil production that continues to be lost on a daily basis or to kill the momentum of the current rally," said John Kilduff, senior oil analyst at Fimat USA in New York.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040923/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_39

[arcos]

21. kick n/t

[arcos]

22. Monday morning kick! n/t

[tedoll78]

24. The debates are coming.

I'd love for Kerry to be able to say, "When you took office, oil was less than $30 a barrel. Now, your policies have it at over $50 a barrel, and our nation's economy is suffering."

[rman]

26. Nimex crude now 49.28

has been steadily rising for the past week

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

[spinbaby]

29. 49.5 now

n/t

[arcos]

30. Oil closed at $49.64

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=749&e=1&u=/nm/20040927/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[arcos]

31. Oil has hit $50 on after hours trading! n/t