The Hurricanes In Florida: Global Warming or No?

[Yavin4]

Amazingly, the media hasn't really addressed this issue, but are these hurricanes the result of global warming? Are we paying the prices for over a century's worth of air pollution and global over-development?

[Renew Deal]

1. God's wrath?

[wickywom]

2. I've repeatedly heard that this cycle used to be the norm...

and that we've been in a slow cycle for about 25 years.
Population I'm sure has soared in that time making the tragedies more intensive
and expensive.

Seems pretty ridiculous though.. the sudden change...I personnally think
rising water temps is a factor, but i am no scientist.

[ramapo]

3. No attribution

This is a somewhat more active hurricane season but the big news is not the number of storms but where they hit.

Florida has been very fortunate over the past decades as storms just didn't go there much.

Florida is paying a price for developing land that has no business being developed, barrier islands especially. Much of that development is made possible through the government's welfare system for the upper class, flood insurance.

[rfkrocks]

4. Great question

I think Norville covered it on MSGOP-Bill Nye the "science guy" said the info was not there yet-personally I look at global temperature increase, shrinking glaciers, melting permafrost and I see bad things going on in the world-I feel we are boiling ourselves to death and won't recognize the problems of pollution until the water is at full boil-sad that the scientific community in this country is laughed at when there is consensus on global warming-we have devolved from the day when Franklin, a scientist, was a role model for government leaders to Shrub-amusing ourselves to death we are

[Dogmudgeon]

5. We don't really know yet

We suspect ... strongly ... that they are created by global warming, but we only have a few years of data to look at.

But there are a number of climatary changes that are happening besides the increase in hurricane and typhoon activity. Were you aware, for instance, that the Arctic weather has been running over ten degrees Farenheit warmer than it was up until the early 1990s? The permafrost is melting, warm-climate animals and plants are starting to appear (including yellowjackets in Nunavut), and this summer there was a heat wave in Alaska where Prince of Wales Island recorded a temperature of 103F.

Looking at a large number of phenomena can give us a better idea of what is going on. I think AGW -- Anthropogenic Global Warming -- has been proved. Natural warming has also taken over, and so we're seeing the changes accelerate.

There is a lot of discussion of these issues on the Energy/Environment/Science forum. You're invited.

I'll also go out on a limb and make a testable prediction -- I think that within 20 years, and perhaps as soon as five, enough oceanic currents will have been changed to allow the Earth to undergo a "climate flip-flop" from a warm phase into a cold phase. It won't quite be The Day After Tomorrow, but it will be destructive. And we'll have no one to blame but ourselves.

The hurricanes are a small part of the world's weather. And all of it will get worse before it gets better.

--bkl

[madmom]

6. sooo Al Gore was right?????n/t

[LuCifer]

7. Global warming doesn't exist, cuz OxyRush said so!

Right? Teehee!

Lu Cifer

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[whistle]

8. Gulf Stream cooling and warmer air sweeping over the water...

...seems to have something to do with this. As for the frequency of hurricanes, that comes in cycles so every 10 to 12 years or more often the number of storms per season does increase. The unusual directional behavior of the last four hurricanes has been very bazaar with Ivan doubling back and coming back over the areas it had devastated just the week before and Jeanne making a 360 degree circle 400 miles offshore in the Atlantic so that it is now in perfect position to track straight into the Florida east coast right into Brevard county (Melbourne/Cocoa/Kennedy Space Center) home of the state's military/industrial complex of major 21st century weapons production. This is why Jeb Bush has that worried look on his face, these producers may just decide Florida isn't worth the risk and move to Oklahoma. I'd welcome that so Floridians and our visitors could have our coasts back again.

[Nordic]

9. it would be pure speculation to say so

absolutely impossible to scientifically link a busy hurricane season to anything except normality.

[ochazuke]

10. Too soon to tell

I am convinced that the current off-the-chart levels of CO-2 in the atmosphere will lead to a significant warming of the earth even if we all stopped driving and using electricity right now.

However, we can't say that the current spate of hurricanes is a result of global warming. A hundred years from now, people can look back and possibly render an opinion regarding how the number of tropical disturbances in 2004 fit in the the mega-trend of rising world temperature.

[madfloridian]

11. No, as the 3rd eye heads our way, I can tell you what it is.

All I had to do was to come to DU and find out....it is God's retribution to Florida for the election, for Bush, and for overbuilding on our coasts.

Case closed.

[Bandit]

16. If you believe in God then you must accept that these are acts of God.

No one can tell God's mind so why is not known but these are acts of God and not Human activity. Let the Bible Belt rectify that.

[BeachBuckeye]

12. My experts tell me we can call these "Bush's Hurricanes"

We are going to do a show about this soon with some Nobel prize winners. They claim the Bush environmental policies will lead to global environmental disaster in just a few years. 48 Nobel winners are included in this group.

[Cha]

20. That's going to be interesting..I

swear you have the best people on your show..like Today!!:D

[MUSTANG_2004]

13. Wrong trend

The trend over the past decades has been for fewer hurricanes, not an increase.(http://www.co2science.org/subject/h/summaries/hurratlangwe.htm)
"From 1701 to 1850, for example, when the earth was locked in the chilling grip of the Little Ice Age, the frequency of major hurricane occurrence was fully 2.8 times greater than it was from 1951 to 1998; and from 1851 to 1950, when the planet was in transition from the Little Ice Age to the Modern Warm Period, it was 2.2 times greater."

Four hurricanes (4 if Jeanne does end up landing) for Florida in one year is a fluke, but not out of the normal range. As you can see from the link below, Texas had 4 hurricanes in 1886.

http://www.wxresearch.com/thurlist.htm

[Eloriel]

14. The media have pre-emptively addressed it

They came out early (i.e., with the last hurricane, Ivan), saying that this is due to a 40-year cycle. Not many of them even mentioned the term global warming in their pre-emptive attack.

[Blue Wally]

15. Two cyclic phenomena

One is the east-west El Nino/La Nina cycle in the Pacific. The other is a north/south flow of Atlantic ocean water which reverses peridoically. They seem to track more with the frequency and severity of hurricanes, typhoons, and droughts.

While the globe is warming both naturally (in recovery from the "Little Ice Age") and due to manmade CO2 and other smog, the earth has a ways to go before being as warm as it was during the "Little Climatic Optimum" around 1000AD which spawned the Viking age.

[AntiFascist]

17. At the risk of politicizing hurricanes....

talking about these issues in Florida may be just as effective as talking about a potential draft in helping the Kerry campaign.

[vetwife]

18. I read Earth in the Balance by Gore..It is definately Global Warming

But of course Bush doesn't read so why would he think that.? If it doesn't strut, cuss, chew tobacco, start wars and kill, write big checks ..he isn't interested. Inquiring minds want to know, but one must first have a mind.

[MUSTANG_2004]

19. No, it is not definitely global warming

The last 50 years have seen a decrease in hurricane activity, and now we're seeing an increase, but the levels are not outside of normal activity when looking over past centuries. See my earlier post in this thread for some links.