Polls that show Bush leading by 10 points or so are heavily oversampling republicans. In some cases they have 9 points more republicans in their samples. Like 39 republicans, 30 democrats and 31 others. There is no reason to believe republicans will turn out in such great numbers. They might do, but democrats will turn out in at least the same numbers.
Polls showing the race pretty much tied (even or Bush +2-3 points) have democrats and republicans even sampled.
Remember the pollsters predicting Bush win by anywhere from 2 to 7 points just before 2000 election and we all remember what happened.
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