What is going to happen in the Senate?

[Selwynn]

I'm actually MORE concerned about congressional situations than I am the presidential election...

What does it look like? Do we have a real chance of gaining much ground?

[WI_DEM]

1. my prediction

We win Illinois, Colorado, Alaska and Oklahoma

We hold onto NC, SD, SC, Fl but lose La and Georgia.

Net gain of 2 seats.

We win special election for Kerry's seat.

Currently 51-48-1

After election (and special election for Kerry's seat)

50 Dem
49 Rep
1 Ind (Jeffords who votes with Dems)

So Dems hold senate 51-49.

[TSIAS]

7. What happens in MA?

Provided Kerry manages to win the election, what happens in the interim?

I know Romney would appoint a Republican. When would there be a special election? I've heard that Meehan and Barney Frank are likely Democratic challengers and would easily cruise to a general election victory.

[TSIAS]

2. It depends on Kerry's performance

We have a great chance in Oklahoma, Alaska, and Colorado. Unfortunately, two of them are heavily Republican and Colorado leans for Bush. Carson, Knowles, and Salazar all superior candidates, but it depends on how close Kerry makes it.

Of course, we'll pick up Illinois.

The five Southern seats worry me the most. In FL, Castor is running even or ahead of Martinez. Bowles is favored to beat Burr in NC. LA is another toss-up, probably pitting Chris John vs. Vitter in a December runoff. SC and GA might be closer than expected, but it's still two likely GOP pickups.

I think the Senate comes down us winning 2/3 in OK, AK, and CO.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Colorado is much closer than Alaska and Oklahoma to.....

Democrats. We could win CO this time!

[TSIAS]

6. Definitely so

For sure. Alaska and Oklahoma are uncompetitive. Colorado, while leaning (R), is still in play.

[Barney Rocks]

4. we have a good chance to take it back.

but we need to keep on plugging--because even the best scenario gives us just a slim margin.

[ComerPerro]

5. We will win Fitzgerald's seat in IL

Because, face it, Keyes doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell.