Why Do Dean's People Think He's Going to Lose?--Why Then Vote??

[Starpass]

I've been holding this in for a week and it's made me so sick after two and a half years of trying to get this fucking bastard out of the White House and then seeing this. One of you posted a newspaper article last week when the polls in N.H. showed Dean with a commanding lead over Kerry---great, any supporter would be real pumped up over that. But, then I read the rest of the article and had a real sense of total hoplessness for '04.

It said that 64% of these same people surveyed believed that Bush would win anyway and about that same amount said it was more important to them to vote for someone who they perceived spoke out and expressed feelings like theirs than picking a winning candidate. NOW, I don't give a rat's ass if you, individually, believe Dean will win 99% of the vote in Nov. '04; I'm saying that this poll you were so happy about says that approx. two-thirds of those who will vote for Dean don't think he can win. And that brings me to this...

I know the American people are morons; but a lot of them do show up to vote for presidential elections because of the hype, tv ads, etc. It is totally irresponsible for those who listen to politics and vote in the primaries to present as the Dem candidate (as an alternative to Bush), a candidate that two-thirds of them believe can't win. Do you expect that at the national level people disinterested in politics will take up the slack and turn Dean into a monumental victory when his own voters don't believe???? This is damn serious business and one on which rests the fate of a lot of congressional candidates as well as the occupancy of the Oval Office. And, you know what, Bush IS beatable and there are more and more indications that people will be receptive to someone else. I'd prefer fielding a candidate whose supporters, when polled, actually believe Bush will be defeated.

[Cheswick2.0]

1. we won't lose in 2004

no matter who the candidate is. Allen's duck could win against bush these days

[rock]

6. Yep

When you're right, you really are right.

[Nederland]

18. Jesus Christ

It's this kind of ignorant cockiness that will get us creamed in 2004. Believe it or not, most people don't think like you. I think perhaps you need to get out more and talk to people that don't agree with you. Perhaps spend less time on DU and more time in the real world? Whether you believe it or not, a majority of voters still approve of Bush, and the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do if we are to convince them they are wrong.

[bearfartinthewoods]

53. you are banging your head against a brick wall

the real world is too scarey for some people. they'd rather stay here in neverneverland.

i'm totally serious.....DU is like a giant pacifier sometimes. no need to face any inconvenient info. just call the messanger a freeper and it all just goes away.

i hear you. there are still a lot of us who post and lurker who know what lies ahead and are trying our damndest.

[Hoppin_Mad]

2. BS

I've been to 3 Dean meetups, and I've met NO ONE who thinks he will lose.


Try polling the 10% of Americans who are following the democratic race closely, not the 50% watching American Idol

[Starpass]

5. Christ do ANY of you Dean people read???

I said YOU people ran a news article that showed this big spread of Dean over Kerry and rejoiced---good--but you totally ignored the rest of that poll. Soooo, I assume the stats that said those polled wanted Dean over Kerry were the greatest most accurate thing ever. BUT the part of the poll that asked those SAME SAME SAME people about Bush, et al, had 64% of them saying they believed Bush would win anyhow and said that they preferred voting for someone who yacked about their issues, etc. over picking someone who could win. But, I know, the fucking whore media AGAIN lied------then I guess they lied about Howard's lead over Kerry??----can't have it both ways out of the same poll. God is this Howard logic at work, or what???

[sfecap]

8. Would you post a link please?

n/t

[Starpass]

13. sfe---one of you had it on Latest Breaking last week and others posted

it on General. So unless, you guys are making it up, I guess it was a real article. It was from a NH newspaper if I recall. And everyone here was breaking out the bottles and rejoicing.

[Cha]

23. Oh yeah like we make up stuff all the time!.....We don't have to

"make up stuff"...WE have a real candidate who gets out there and does the Work!

[HFishbine]

34. Here U go

Here is is:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

And notice, nowhere does it report what percentage of Dean supporters think Bush is going to be reelected. Geez! If only you Dean haters could read.

[poskonig]

9. The poll I read said 2/3rd of ALL Democrats think Junior will win.

Do you have a link?

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Cha]

12. Yes WE READ! And you don't have to be so insulting!

And I need a link!

[Cha]

22. Bullshit!

Dean is gonna Win and bush is gonna lose!

[caledesi]

44. Support for Dean is growing at an expotential rate.

None of the other candidates can claim this. If they could, there would be picture of the thousands of people showing up to hear them speak.

In contrast, whenever HD is planning to attend a rally and expecting, oh say, 2000 people....4000 end up showing. He's got the big 'mo and will be the next president of the US.

[Hoppin_Mad]

54. Aren't you going to back your claim starpass ?

Or - if not - admit you were wrong ?

[DemBones DemBones]

15. Before you call BS and attack the messenger, you ought to read

the message again.

"I'm saying that this poll you were so happy about says that approx. two-thirds of those who will vote for Dean <64%> don't think he can win."

Someone polled Dean supporters somewhere and got that 64% "think Bush* will win anyway" figure. You could complain that Starpass didn't offer a link (though that's not required in GD) or do a search and find the poll and see if there are legitimate reasons to complain about the polling methods. But your observation that everybody in your Dean group thinks Dean can win doesn't invalidate the poll.

[Cha]

25. The "messenger" was Attacking us and we're not going to sit

idly by while getting Attacked!

[Starpass]

35. EXCUSE ME--I'm sick and tired of people coming here with articles, etc.

by various candidates other than Howard and being attacked by this hoard of": IT's got to be lies; it's got to be media lying; it's not the truth, etc. Go look at a post I made about an hour ago of MSNBC coverage of a Labor Day speech in NH where the reporter was taken back - it was a labor rally and Gep was suppose to get the standing ovations but it was Kerry, she said, who stole the show and surprised even the Kerry campaign (they are stunned). Right smack, bingo, comes the attacks of media whores, I'm a fucking liar, there are no candidates on God's earth except Howard, etc. That's why I'm starting to post again, honey. I've not been around DU much this summer. But every time I flip it on the insanity about Howard gets worse and worse. I don't want to just sit there and take it any longer. I've noticed that a lot of people have wandered away because there is only ONE thing discussed over and over again here and when another candidate is introduced, the pile on begins. I'm looking for someone who can beat Bush.

[Name removed]

38. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Starpass]

55. Fisbine--that isn't the poll---you guys put it here from a NH

pollster and was part of a newspaper article. In fact there was some pointing out about the 64% figure at that time by DUers but ignored by the Dean supporters. It was not a Zogby poll.

[Classical_Liberal]

56. I think Kerry will do worse against Bush so

;p

[Upfront]

60. You Found Him

but you need to open your ears, think Howard Dean if you want to beat Bush. Dean and Clark look darn good to me. Who do you back?

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HFishbine]

31. Or

Or try accurately reporting a poll. (Notice there are no links to a source?)

[Upfront]

59. I doubt

50% of Americans could name the current president.

[poskonig]

3. Dean has talent and is going to win.

After seeing him during his last few interviews, I don't see how Dean is going to lose unless Bush turns the economy and more importantly Iraq around.

[Starpass]

10. pos-----then why did 2/3 of those in NH who said they would vote for

Dean also answer another question in that same poll and say that they expected Bush to win??? I think there is a big difference in Dean supporters....in other words, if this poll is reflective, then 1/3 of those who will vote Dean think he can ultimately win and 2/3 don't. That's good credentials to send a nominee out against Bush with.

[poskonig]

16. Again, I thought this is all Democrats. Do you have a *link*?

eom

[Cha]

17. Since I don't live in New Hampshire I can't answer for them but

you don't need to get your knickers in such a twit because bush is gonna LOSE!

[sfecap]

26. Starpass...I recall the poll, but...

..I don't recall that Dean supporters said they expected * to win, so if you could dig up the link I would appreciate it.

I have never talked to a Dean supporter who thought that.

[bitchkitty]

32. First,

You're upset over a poll. A corporate media poll. Calm down.

Next, Howard Dean is going to win. They can poll all the so-called Democrats that they want. Dean is still going to win.

[HFishbine]

39. WRONG!

They didn't. Check your facts!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[diplomats]

4. Starpass, I have seen other polls that showed

Dems more interested in winning than losing on "principle." And I also remember interviews with primary voters in places like N.H. who made it clear winnability was a big factor for them. I'm just trying to cheer you up!

[Hoppin_Mad]

7. Just announced on CNN

Only 38 % of surveyed dems think chimp is a shoe-in.

50% think otherwise.

[Cha]

14. That's right bush is gonnalose again only bigger this time!

[Starpass]

19. I'll try it a one a more a time

This was not a nationwide poll on if Bush will win, etc. It was the poll you guys were going nuts about in NH that put Dean like 20 points ahead of Kerry and then said that the SAME people interviewed (da ones dat gave Dean dat 20 point lead, you understand), 64% said they expected Bush to win. There were X number of people who said they would vote for DEAN (and that gave him the 20 point lead) and 64% of X said they, in the end, expected Bush to win. That to me sounds like they might just change their mind if they run into someone who looks more promising.

[Cha]

27. Speculate Speculate Speculate!

[Hoppin_Mad]

29. Lets see a link !

Seems like you have ALL your eggs in one skewed basket ( poll )

Are you REALLY insane enough to think that 2/3's of Dean supporters think Bush will win - like you're trying to extrapolate from this one ( and I'm taking your word that you're correct ) poll

[HFishbine]

41. Incorrect

But, you've got it wrong.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[Hoppin_Mad]

45. Different Poll - I'm referring to the CNN USA Today -eom-

ddd

[HFishbine]

58. Starppass

I think I can clear up the confusion. You noted: "the SAME people interviewed, 64% said they expected Bush to win." Yes, that's correct (see the link you dismissed). But that is not 64% of Dean supporters.

Read it carefully, it is, as you once correctly noted, 64% of the people polled -- NOT DEAN SUPPORTERS ONLY.

Now if one wants to spculate on the REAL numbers, my guess would be that the 38% of those who said they support Dean are pretty certain Bush isn't going to win. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the 64% who said they expect Bush to win are supporters of other candidates.

[hedda_foil]

20. Actually it was 38% total -- not just of Dems.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/09/01/elec04.prez.democrats.poll.ap/index.html

When all potential voters were asked whether President Bush will definitely be re-elected, 38 percent said yes, but 50 percent said they think a Democrat can win. When voters were asked the same question about Bush's father in October 1991, 66 percent said yes, but that number dropped 20 points in the next month. The first President Bush lost to Bill Clinton.

[Hoppin_Mad]

51. Thank you for the correction . . . . (Starpass ?) -eom-

cccc

[BJ]

21. First of all one can't really trust poll numbers.

We are not informed exactly how the question and response were collected. The way a poll question is formulated can influcence the outcome of the response.

And since you, Starpass, neglected to post a link or in some other way give some attribution to the newpaper you allegedly read on DU a couple of weeks ago, you've seriously weakened your agrument.

I personally support Dennis Kucinich and I'll vote for him, but realistically if the election were held today I don't think he'd stand a chance in Hell. This may, however, change in time.

The Iowa Caucuses are in January. There is still plenty of time.

Don't fret.

[HFishbine]

24. Let's be real

"two-thirds of those who will vote for Dean don't think he can win. And that brings me to this..."

Please don't mislead, it lessens the credibility for the rest of your argument.

I've seen similar numbers when asked of ALL DEMOCRATS if they think George Bush will be reelected, but none that pin this only on Dean voters.

I trust you'll either provide a link to substantiate this statistic, or your retract your statement.

[devarsi]

28. More Anti-Dean Non-Thoughtfulness

Why do Dems think that Bush will win anyway?

Perhaps they don't trust our federal election system.

Gore took more votes in 2000, popular for sure, EC probably, but Bush still "won."

You might want to look for the answers yourself, instead of just looking for an opportunity to insult other Dems

[stickdog]

30. Three answers

1) The media keeps playing the "unbeatable George Bush" and "too liberal Howard Dean" angle. Meanwhile, Bush paints himself as the underdog to his supporters to get more money.

2) Howard Dean supporters, in general, think Dean will wipe the floor with Bush. Some need more convincing than others, but seeing the man in person is usually enough.

3) Fraud-made-easy Republican-made voting machines.

[Eloriel]

33. Well, Starpass, it's like this

In order for you to arrive at the question you've posed, you have to:

1. Believe that poll
2. Believe that the people who apparently responded that way came to that conclusion on their own as opposed to naively believing all the talking heads propagandizing endlessly about Dean's unelectability;
3. Believe the endless propagandizing about Bush's popularity and INVulnerability;
4. Believe that even tho they will STILL be voting their consciences and hearts in droves, it still won't matter because he IS unelectable.

And I basically reject ALL parts of your premise.

It didn't take me long to realize that Dean was absolutely electable, and my opinion on that matter just continues to rise. But then, I don't automtically believe pundits. But not everyone (e.g., the poll respondents) has the luxury I have to spend quite so much time getting that smart at DU. :evilgrin:

Eloriel

Edited for clarification.

[HFishbine]

42. Back up Eloriel

Before anything, one has to believe that Starpass reported accurately on the poll findings. He/she didn't.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[Eloriel]

50. Thanks for the heads up

I kinda had that covered under "YOu'd have to believe that poll..."

Eloriel

[sfecap]

36. It was the Zogby poll.

And you are reading it wrong. It wasn't just Dean supporters who were polled. It was likely Democratic voters.

Nearly two-thirds (64%) of the respondents said they thought it was somewhat (46%) or very likely (18%) that President George W. Bush would be re-elected in 2004.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[Hoppin_Mad]

40. Are you SURE your numbers are right ?

You wrote :

 " I'm saying that this poll you were so happy about says that approx. two-thirds of  those who will vote for Dean  don't think he can win.. 


"Dean takes lead in New Hampshire
8/29/2003 10:12 AM


Howard Dean has taken a commanding lead in the latest New Hampshire poll.

The former Governor of Vermont now has a 21 point lead over Bay State Senator John Kerry. That is according to the most recent Zogby International poll.

The poll that ran Aug. 23 to the 26 showed voters prefer Dean's "take no prisoners" approach.

Still, almost  two-thirds of New Hampshire voters  think Bush will likely be re-elected in 2004.

Earlier this year, Dean trailed Kerry in polls."

Lets SEE those numbers you're referring to !

[HFishbine]

43. No

His number are wrong. They fit his rhetoric nicely, but they are misrepresented.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[Hoppin_Mad]

47. Why do 99.9% of Kerry worshippers hate Dean ? -eom-

jealousy

[Name removed]

46. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Forkboy]

52. heh

I love that line,I really do :)

[bearfartinthewoods]

48. this is another examle of why our current primary procedure is faulty

it puts too much power in the hands of too few.

it made sense before mass media..when the candidate needed a chance to present themselves on a local level. but now, we could do it better.

[DealsGapRider]

49. I haven't detected any fatalism in Dean supporters

And anyone who thinks he isn't eminently electable is high. He could be elected easily, and I'm increasingly inclined to believe he will be, mirabile dicte. Christ, if Carter can get elected, Dean surely can.

[Kahuna]

57. I said the same thing last week. It boggles the mind.

There seems to always be a contingent among "democrats" who do all they can to always see to it that we lose elections. I've seen it in presidential elections time and time again. And I'm sick of it.

[Forkboy]

61. choosing a guy who isn't even running yet

will help.

[Hippo_Tron]

62. Okay I'm going to flat out say it

I believe Dean is a fucking socialist. Once he's elected he's going to put insane regulations to the economy and raise taxes like hell. He's going to cut spending on the military significantly making us more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. He's going to lie right now about his economic policies just like Bush did on top of that I think that he will make things worse than Bush. I'm sorry but my belief is that we need somebody with a moderate fiscal policy and somebody who is strong on defense (and not a dumbass on defense like Bush). While I agree with him on social issues I'm not voting for somebody based on social issues in a time where our economy sucks and we there are serious foreign policy problems going on. The other problem with Dean is that a majority of Americans most likely believe what I have just said above. Should he be the nominee I will simply not vote for a candidate in 2004 and prey that the Democrats controll congress if Bush is re-elected and the Republicans controll congress should Dean get elected.

[ryharrin]

63. Your post is absolutely absurd.

What in Dean's record would make you think he is anything like a socialist? (Though, I'd be happy if he were) His record in Vermont is that of a fiscal moderate/conservative. He also balanced budgets and cut taxes many times in VT. Also, how is he bad on defense. He believes that Bush's foreign policy is dangerously belligerent, which is a completely sane position.