How much worse would it be in Iraq if the US just pulled out?

[IkeWarnedUs]

Over and over we hear (and say) that the US can't just leave Iraq. That there has to be an orderly transfer of power to the UN or a democraticaly elected Iraqi government or someone. That we can't just go and leave a vacuum.

While that certainly is a logical approach, I am starting to wonder if a vacuum would be such a bad thing. The implication is that there would be no law and order and no one to maintain basic services. That's pretty much what Iraq has now, with no signs of improvement any time soon.

The other argument against pulling out is that another evil dictator like Saddam would take over. One who would kill and imprison Iraqi's who don't agree with him and fill his own pockets while letting his people suffer. Again, that is what Iraq has now, except that it is a committee of evil dictators in Washington.

At least with a vacuum Iraq would have a chance to fill it with a better system.

I'm not actually saying we should just pull out. I would prefer turning the country over to UN control. But I have been one of those people saying we can't just pull our troops out and I'm starting to re-think that position.

Btw, what the hell are we spending a billion dollars a day on? It isn't going to the troops. How much of it is being spent on bombs and tanks if we aren't "fighting" anymore? What are Kellog, Brown and Root and Bechtel doing for their billion dollar contracts?

[wtmusic]

1. I've been thinking the same thing

How much worse off would we be? Obviously there would be violence, obviously it would take time.

The possibilities:

1. Saddam returns to power.
2. Shiite fundamentalist assumes power.
3. Democracy takes hold without our 'help'.

I take (2) by a wide margin, whether or not we stay in the country (it will just take a bit longer if we stay there). And that regime WILL get nukes, and we will wish we had Saddam to deal with!

[MidwestTransplant]

7. 2 is probably a good bet

except that it would come about by civil war, which obviously would not be a good thing. If we abandon Iraq, I think we will have even bigger problems in my opinion.

[bigtree]

2. There are many obstacles

to immediate withdrawal, the biggest one is Bush. How do we get a withdrawal in the time that remains in his term?

Where the hell is that congressional inquiry?

[ramapo]

3. Chaos

I'd expect chaos and possibly civil war.

[Mari333]

4. which is exactly what is happening right now

and our kids are caught in the crossfire.


Bring Them Home Now


www.bringthemhomenow.com

[reachout]

6. None at all

Bad things are going to happen to Iraq now. There is not going to a peaceful transition to a national democracy. Saddam may return, a fundamentialist Islamic state may come into being, something worse that we can't forsee right now could happen.

The truth is, the presence of American troops in Iraq can delay any of these possiblities but cannot prevent them. Iraqis are going to have to work and fight and struggle this out among themselves. Sooner or later, America will leave. The body count can only get so high, and the cost so great, before whatever administration is in the White House will have to withdraw. At that point, chaos will erupt. Hopefully some good end will come. Maybe the UN and the Arab League can help. But, it is going to happen to some degree, great or small.

I can find no good argument for our remaining, because I've read enough history to understand where this is going. However, I do see a good argument for withdrawing sooner rather than later. The longer we stay there, the more radicalized the population will become and the more marginalied the centerist elements will be. Our presence is a godsend to those on the extremes. If we pull out sooner, moderates may yet have a chance in Iraq. In say, another two years they many have no chance at all.

[wtmusic]

11. Welcome to DU reachout

:bounce: :toast: :bounce:

and great post!

[newyawker99]

17. Hi reachout!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[WilliamPitt]

10. This isn't chaos yet

Chaos will be 100x worse...Rwanda worse.

[Solomon]

5. We should get out and turn it over to the UN but

we are so greedy for the profits, we won't consider that. My fear is that what will eventually happen is that Bush will sell off some of the profits to get other countries involved, but by keeping a hand in it, will continue to provoke chaos.

We need to forego the profits and get completely out. Once again we are deluding ourselves if we think that we are the ONLY people who could help restore order.

[WilliamPitt]

8. If we pull out

The Sunnis and the Shia will go for each other in a religious civil war that will wind up involving Iran. It will be Beruit with Rwanda casualty numbers.

[On the Road]

9. Well, Let's See . . .

What are some other states which have suddenly found themseles without an effective central government?

Afghanistan (late 80's)
Somalia

Or a weak central government not in control of their own territory?

Liberia
Sierra Leone
Congo
Columbia

Iraq would end up somewhere on this continuum. I think we need to do some nation-building. Or ensure that it gets done by someone else.

[reachout]

12. One point of expansion

I should note that I don't really believe the nation of Iraq exists anymore. I mean, sure it's still on a map, but so are some countries you noted like Congo. "Iraq" was carved out by British imperialism and has only ever maintained national integrity through brutal repression. I don't honestly believe that the three major ethnic/religious groups see themselves as part of a unified whole nation. I mainly draw this conclusion from speaking with Iraqi ex-pats and with some friends of mine in the peace community who have recently visited there. The three main groups comprising the so-called nation of Iraq have only ever been held together at the point of a gun. I honestly believe that Balkanization is inevitable, including the possibility of a significant portion of the south becoming part of a greater Iran. Continued military occupation can delay this, but I don't believe it can prevent it.

Ultimately, only history will tell.

[Old and In the Way]

13. Balkanization of Iraq, I think.

I wonder if Hallibutonstan will be a contiguous state, though?

Seems like we'd be better off to withdraw, with the stipulation that we will supply a significant aid package as soon as Iraq can stabilize their political situation.

Anyway you cut it, there will be more chaos and bloodshed....everyday it grows, the question as to whether the Iraqi's were better off with Saddam in power becomes more relevant and less easily dismissed.

[Ediacara]

14. a civil war at the very least

and invasion by Turkish and Kurdish troops in the north, Iranian troops in the east, and possibly even Kuwaiti troops in the south. Iraq doesn't have what anyone would consider an army at the moment, and just leaving the country NOW would be an unmitigated disaster of proportions unknown in modern warfair.

Not to mention massive outbreaks of disease and starvation....

[NNN0LHI]

15. It won't make any difference if we stay or go anymore

The only question now is how many Americans will die and be taken hostage before we leave.

Don

[Karenina]

16. Q: What are Kellog, Brown and Root and Bechtel doing

for their billion dollar contracts?

A: Raking HUGE profits while failing to deliver the services for which they've contracted. They are responsible for the lack of appropriate support to the American military. American service personnel are NOT receiving enough water to drink in desert heat. This is ATROCIOUS. It is treason.

[sandnsea]

18. Afghanistan

There shouldn't need to be another word said to understand why we can't leave a power vacuum in a middle eastern country.

Except for those who don't believe terrorists exist.

[Composed Thinker]

19. I agree

Afghanistan is pretty bad now--Bill Maher, in fact, said the country was just like it was before we went in there--and we've still got people there.

[sandnsea]

20. Yes, but not what I meant

Afghanistan became the way it was pre 9/11 because after we supported their war against the USSR and the USSR pulled out, we left it. We pulled out of Aghanistan, just like people want to do in Iraq. A power vacuum was created that allowed the Taliban and al qaeda to grow. Pretty much the same as with Napoleon, Hitler, others. Power vacuums tend to create monstrous situations. Just leaving Iraq is not only cruel to the Iraqi people, it's just about guaranteed to create another breeding ground for terrorits who will have oil to sell to fund their attacks.

[Composed Thinker]

21. I agree

My problem is that I, stupidly, did not finish my thought. You said what I wanted to and should have added.

[Karenina]

22. If those holding the reins

of the U.S. government had demonstrated the slightest capability to do anything but fuck up and destroy, I might agree with you. At the moment though, the only question is, how many more will die before the U.S military and its attendant corporate interests withdraw from Iraq. In its present configuration it does not have the capability to contribute anything positive to the situation.

[Starpass]

23. Shut your mouth---we aren't finished turning Iraq into Afghanistan yet!!

But we're close. Every day I see more and more pounded into itty bitty tiny pieces once very modern areas of Iraq. Man if you took a snap of it and put it next to a snap of that devestated rock heap called Afghanistan you couldn't tell the difference. If we stay long enough, we should be able to make the two nations the "Twins". In the end these people will have a brutal asshole (but America's brutal asshole) as their leader. The only thing that's variable is how much money and dead people we spend to get from point A to B............another fucking Bush roadmap to hell.

[Capn Sunshine]

24. One thing for sure

Less Americans would be dead.

[IkeWarnedUs]

25. This discussion is pretty much what has been going on in my head

As I said, my first choice is that Iraq be turned over to the UN with the US in a supporting role, just like any other country. I don't see any way the PNAC'ers in power would let that happen. As much as I hate it, I think the UN will give in first, because it is the "humane" thing to do.

I was encouraged to hear about the brother of the cleric who was just killed who said America should get out now. He is a member of the American approved Iraqi Governing Council.

I wonder what would happen if he and a few more Council members were to officially ask the UN to take over the rebuilding process and get the US out.

Something better happen, or Iraq will make VietNam look like the rumble from West Side Story.