There is ONE source reporting this. Everyone else is just mimicking them. Does that mean it's not true? Probably not, I say.
The words at the center of the question are "ay wilaya". Anybody speak arabic? Of course, for extra authenticity it would be nice to check the tape to see if OBL actually said this. Is it available anywhere?
MEMRI, the Middle East Media Research Institute, said that:
In a section of his speech in which he harshly criticized George W. Bush, bin Laden stated: "Any U.S. state that does not toy with our security automatically guarantees its own security."
The Islamist website Al-Qal'a explained what this sentence meant: "This message was a warning to every U.S. state separately. When he said, 'Every state will be determining its own security, and will be responsible for its choice,'
...
"Wilaya" refers specifically to a U.S. state; it would never refer to an independent country. The term for such a country is "Dawla."http://www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SA1404#_edn2You may have noticed a tinge of bias in this article. Additionally, one of the first papers to run this story was the NY Post, Rupert Murdoch's rag. The right could have used this to promote a "See? He doesn't like Bush!" message.
Brian Whitaker of The Guardian criticized MEMRI's reporting here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,773258,00.html(Link contains rebuttal from MEMRI head. Ineffective, IMO.)
His conclusion: They give accurate translations, but only report things that can be used by the right. Interesting points: Israeli intel agency ties and Zionism.
So can anyone knowledgeable clarify any of this? My overall feeling is that the translation is accurate, and that I should ignore (as usual) reich wing appraisals of the situation.
*Important note: There are two major transcripts/translations of this tape. One, widely distributed in the US, is missing large chunks of what was said. I believe Al Jazeera and others have the full translation up on websites, just watch out for Fox/CNN/other MSM.