Chinese invasion of Taiwan

[nedlogg]

We used to hear a lot from the neocons about China invading Taiwan. Not so much anymore.

Wouldn't you think that if China really wanted to invade Taiwan, now would be the time to do it with US forces stretched so thin and all?

Or was the whole thing just another repuke scare tactic to keep us all in line and give us yet one more culture to hate?

[FDR2004]

1. Good question

Especially since US movement of troops to the region is possible in the future WRT N. Korea.

Anyone from Taiwan on the boards?

FDR2004

[JHB]

2. No, they really do want it back...

...but just because something is true doesn't mean the neocons won't leverage it far beyond what's prudent if it works to their advantage.

However, don't forget that the reduced flexibility of a US response increases the chance of it escalating to nuclear levels, so it's not as opportune a time as it may seem...

[Brotherjohn]

3. I read somewhere recently (Krugman, Dowd?) that before 9-11...

... China was the "culture to hate". That made me remember the same things you're remembering. After the spy plane thing and all, and since they were the only substantial communist nation left, they were the best target. Repubs need to play the scare card to succeed.

But 9-11 gave them the boogie-man they were looking for: the Muslim world.

[Man_in_the_Moon]

4. Mainland China cant

They dont have the sealift capability, nor the air assets to supress even the Taiwanese airforce (to keep them from blowing the few ships the Mainland Chinese do have away).

A US Task force centered around a Carrier, or maybe even a cruiser, could keep Taiwan safe from invasion for quite a while.

[Patriot_Spear]

8. Bush* won't say boo to the Chinese...

He backed down once, he'd do it again; Taiwan is screwed if the Chinese attacked now.

And I'd hate to be that Battle Group Commander knowing the Chinese had compromised one of my spy-planes like a cheerleader on prom night.

[Patriot_Spear]

5. Perfect timing militarily- bad timing economically...

...The Chinese are really hot to stay in the good graces of the WTO for obvious reasons.

They just built Three Rivers Dam, they're sending up Astronauts next spring, etc... they've got to many irons in the fire to bang the wardrum just yet.

[Prodemsouth]

6. They don't need to. If you noticed China is not talked about much at all

China is getting prosperous as most nations do when they are the one making more products-manfacturing really moves an economy despite all this bullshit you hear about industrial age, information age etc. I just think China knows it would have to more to lose by invading Taiwan,thinking it would cost them the US and western markets. Now they could do like the did in the pro democracy push back, figure that we would get over it and invade anyway.

[Jack The Tab]

7. Before the neocons got into office...

There was a lot of speculation that China and US would get into some sort of skirmish over a Chinese naval blockade within 10 years. I read a book called The Coming Conflict With China, written in 1996 or so that spelled this scenario out.


I think China is too busy riding the economic wave to really saber-rattle much these days. But I don't doubt they have a long-term strategy to get Taiwan back. Perhaps even involving a nod towards dismantling NK in exchange for Taiwan.

[TreasonousBastard]

9. Perhaps.

Used to hear a lot from anyone at all interested in the Far East about China invading Taiwan. They consider it a province and don't recognize it as an independant country.

It's not really a question of if they will push the claim, but when. They have a habit of pushing things to see just how far they can get, and have already rattled sabers toward Taiwan just to see what the world reaction is.

I suspect that their plans for Taiwan are on hold for the time being because they are watching how North Korea unfolds, are still digesting Hong Kong, and have trade issues pending with their biggest export markets. US belligerance and the impossibility of their foretelling just how we will react probably gives them pause, too. I doubt they are actually afraid of us, but the instability of a new Asian war and the disruption of their exports would trouble them.

Even without our forces being stretched thin, a Chinese invasion is unthinkable. A land area larger than the US, a population of 2 billion... I doubt we'd be able to even adequately assist in defending a Taiwan invasion, much less neutralize China. China could walk right in, and the best we could do would be drop a few bombs and complain a lot.

They do have patience, lots of patience, and when the time is right, I have no doubt they will strike.

[aneerkoinos]

10. China's attention span

is much much longer than we can even imagine in the west. They are in no hurry and will get Taiwan back when the time is ripe. They won't have to invade, they'll get is some other way.

Officially Taiwan is part of China, it is not a fully independent country.