POLL: How long before fuel prices really take us down?

[smartvoter]

Poll question: POLL: How long before fuel prices really take us down?

How long before we REALLY start seeing the economy start to tank because of fuel prices?

All the warning signs are there -- late credit card payments because of gas prices, surveys projecting reduced holiday spending, fuel surcharges in freight shipping, the first convoy by independent truckers, airline bankruptcies, etc.

When do you think the economic pickle we're in will come home to roost, or if it's already here, become obvious?

[slackmaster]

1. Fuel prices are NOT going to take the whole economy down

Once people start feeling real increases in the prices of commodities like food, everyone will become religious about conserving fossil fuels. More people will telecommute, people will drive more efficient vehicles or ride bikes or share rides. That will drive demand for fuel down, which will force the energy suppliers to cut or at least stabilize prices.

[Armstead]

6. Such an optimist

I think fuel prices threaten everything. Unfortunately, any "converions" to a non-fossil fuel will be too little too late, because we have allowed a systemic cancer to grow.

Maybe it won't be terminal, but unless as a society we confront the need to make the present tolerable by taking control of the energy markets NOW, we're going down the tubes.

[smartvoter]

7. I was thinking similarly. We will have to be brought to our knees before

the changes that should be happening, happen.

[Greyhound]

8. What country do you live in?

[MadHound]

24. BZZZT! Wrong friend

Energy prices have insidiously intertwined themselves into every single aspect of the American economy, and our economy fluctuates back on forth based on those energy prizes.

Food, clothing, inventory, this computer I'm typing at, health care, every single consumer product or service has the imprint of fossil fuels on it.

Sure, we can conserve and carpool, but that isn't going to stop food prices from going up, since the vast majority of our food is both raised with petroleum products, and transported in trucks. We can lower our thermostat ten degrees this upcoming winter, but that still isn't going to change the fact that every single nationwide carrier, air, ground, rail, and water, are adding outrageous fuel surcharges onto every single item that they deliver.

We can ride our bikes like Lance Armstrong, but that still isn't going to change the fact that Big Oil is creating this artificial energy shortfall by refusing to build any more gasoline refineries, and are also shipping heating fuels abroad, all to create this artificial energy shortage.

We're playing a rigged game here friend, and the only way out is to kick the oil addiction all together. Capitalism does indeed work as you say, when the markets are open and free. But what we are seeing at work here isn't true capitalism, it is crony capitalism, and yes, it can and will bring this economy down around our ears. It has happened before(the Great Depression is just one example) and it is going to happen again.

[blue neen]

2. I chose "Other".

The economy has been tanking for at least a month now.

Retail establishments are already hurting, as is the service industry.

[ProfessorGAC]

10. A Month?

Where've you been? Visiting a different planet or something? (I'm kidding.)

The economy has been in full stagnation since mid-2001, no matter what the econoharlots at Treasury try to spin. The lack of productivity, high absolute inflation, changes to the deficit accounting for nearly 30% of nominal growth, and falling median household income (adjusted), are all signs of an economy that isn't healthy. They spin it as good indicators, but it's really only a sign that the economy isn't in free fall, which is almost impossible anyway. (Another thing they won't tell you!)

The overall impact of higher energy is going to hurt some very large businesses in the near future, and we will see once again the truth that puts to test the myth the business does better under Republican control of gov't. It has never been true, and likely never will be.
The Professor

[barb162]

11. you're basically right. This economy has been in real doldrums since

2001. And what's happening with American jobs, outsourcing, is very destructive to the US and its people. I have already noticed over the last month or so there are fewer people doing discretionary shopping at the malls, fewer people in restaurants, etc. I noticed the same thing durng elder Bush's reign; I was working near a mall and I just noticed day after day there were fewer cars in the parking lots, fewer walking in the mall, etc. Consumers are getting scared to spend.

[ProfessorGAC]

12. I've Been Tracking Economic Parameters For 25 Years!

I published my first paper in 1988 based upon new and novel models that predict macroeconomic behaviors and create causative links of certain governmental and industrial behaviors on the overall economy.

This is the most uninspiring economic condition since 1981, and only the periods 1929 - 1931 and 1906 - 1909 are worse over the last 100 years. So what you've noticed makes perfect sense. The consumption driver is going to see some significant downward pressure because of direct energy inflation taking $ out of discretionary "pockets". It's a serious problem and the idiots in Treasury and the "analysts" in the media want to keep spinning it happy.

Nice going Silverspoon.
The Professor

[barb162]

14. People are getting scared I think. Too many layoff notices

in the papers, bankruptcies up, airlines hurting, the obvious upcoming winter heating problems ($$$), meanwhile people are mortgaged to the hilt, maxing on the credit cards, Iraq war costs, etc.

ARe you seeing a recession coming? I am surprised one didn't start last spring. Also the hurricanes...the fannie may etc problems of people walking away from their homes and mortgages in the gulf coast. What are the mortgage holders going to do? Repossess the cracked slabs the houses were on? I have extremely bad vibes on this economy

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Well, That's A Tricky Question

I don't define "recession" in the conventional way. I use a statistical approach and compare several factors to comparable periods, factored for improvements in monetary velocity (which has been increased quite a lot, on a few different occasions with EFT, in the 60's, 70's, 80's and especially in the internet age).

My statistical criteria suggests that we've been in a recessionary period for over 4 years now. By an "amazing" conincidence, it started right about the time Silverspoon started dismantling the GHWB and Clinton era tax code. What a coincidence that we hit economic doldrums, on a statistically significant basis, right about the time that this gang's idiotic policies started to be implemented or at least moved toward as the first Silverspoon budget was being designed.

So, yes we're in a recessionary period, but not by the standard definition. And, since it is REALLY hard to meet the standard definition (how convenient) i can't predict anything beyond the 90% CI. My take is it's unlikely we will see a downturn significant enough to meet the conventional definition, but of course, i'm admitting there's a 10% chance (at least) that i'm wrong.

I'd prefer to be right about this one. There is enough financial pain right now.
The Professor

[barb162]

22. I would agree with you here. Doesn't have to be negative growth

in the classic economic sense. It's been what I would call a stagnant economy in some very big ways. Job growth? Where are those 320,000 jobs a month growth that shrubster promised back early in his first term with that nutcase tax cut program he installed? Maybe there has been job growth in the service sector only...those part-time cashier jobs at minimum wage with no benefits.

[smartvoter]

16. Is it your opinion that the bankruptcy "reform" sham of 2005 reflects

the hidden reality that even those spinning it see it?

This is how it struck me -- they know what's coming and they're locking in "their 'fair' share."

[ProfessorGAC]

18. No, I Really Don't Think So

I don't have much respect for that crowd, as you probably figured out. But, most of them are not wealthy people and probably either are too stupid to see the damage it will cause (lots of Liberterian (capital L) economists out there who don't want the subtleties and complexities of actual real life distrub their precious "theories") or are so ideologicall driven that they're ok with the fall-out.

But, i don't think most of the economists, analysts, or even the spinners are so well off that they're worried about locking in what's "their fair share".

That's a little more nefarious than i'm willing to concede. I think it's mostly limited vision. They know less about what is really going on and how things actually work in practice than they would like to believe.
The Professor

[rkc3]

20. My take on many of the things related to the current economic

conditions is related to CAFTA and NAFTA - these were sold to us as a way to improve trade for America and increase jobs and improve the welfare of other participating nations.

One thing that can be seen is that it is easier to reduce the standard of living in one country (US) than it is to improve the standards of living in many countries - particularly countries with a high percentage of their citizens living in poverty.

While it might be tin foil thinking, looking at what has happened to the economy and some of the draconian laws recently passed, it would appear one of the goals of the government has been to wipe out the middle class and unions so there is an ample pool of low-wage workers to pick from.

Additionally, as we move from middle class to poverty, it would address some of the pesky issues related to illegal immigrants - many poor Americans might become very interested in farm labor.

[barb162]

23. I think the corporations basically own this administration

and they have gotten in their laws so entrenched in this economy they basically are running the show. Pensions, forget it. Medical insurance, forget it. Paying tech people too much? Send the jobs to Asia. I think many more Americans will be going to agriculture, feeding Asia and trying not to starve. We are basically giving up our tech lead! The middle class and unions are being destroyed the last few years as the voters are voting against their economic interest. It is amazing watching it unfold. It amazes me talking to tech people who have lost their really good jobs and they still vote pug. They don't seem capable of putting it together that this country should perhaps have strict policies that are for keeping jobs here instead of a n increasingly greedy style capitalism dedicated to whatever corporations want at the expense of American workers.

[rkc3]

26. I've read that in Japan, the corporations outsource their low-skilled

labor while preferring to do the highly-skilled manufacturing and processing with native laborers. It keeps the high value jobs at home and keeps the workforce competitive.

They also take the long view, whereas, US corporations only look out quarter to quarter - in order to keep profits growing in stagnant or shrinking markets you have to cut costs and labor is a big chunk of change for a lot of companies. (I work for a small market research firm - labor makes up 65% of our expenses.)

I totally agree with your thoughts on corporations running this country - unfortunately for them, they will do no better under this admin and will likely to worse when they find an undereducated, unmotivated workforce here in the states.

[barb162]

27. They will then sell their products and services to the new middle

class in Asia. Much bigger and docile consumer and labor markets for them there than here. I think that's where it will all be going, sad to say. They have basically written off things here. They will just shift their corporate offices offshore gradually (like they are already doing anyway) and more and more production. And they are winning because Americans are too dumb or in denial to see what's happening. And neither party has a platform to deal with this enormous issue.

[barb162]

21. Well as rkc3 mentioned about the so-called

free trade deals, the bankruptcy law changes, the tax code changes, etc., I just see continuing and deepening pain for the many people of this wonderful country of ours. The deficit is gigantic, the trade deficit (forget it!), people have been sliding into poverty in big numbers, etc.,I am just seeing no good economic news.

[ProfessorGAC]

25. I'm Not Disagreeing

The Professor

[porphyrian]

3. We're just one cold winter away.

That, and the worst holiday shopping profits in recent times.

[smartvoter]

29. Yep. This is it starting right now... nt

[Kralizec]

4. Happened a little sooner than I expected, but I knew it was coming anyhow.

Lots of people did.

Peace.

[smartvoter]

5. "Lots of people did." Completely agree, and believe it is at the heart

of bankruptcy "reform."

[tinrobot]

9. It's already happening

My costs are going up, my business costs are going up.

[tex-wyo-dem]

13. The American economic engine that we've known for decades...

has always relied on cheap energy. This has led to big buildings, big cars, sprawling cities and suburbs, entire big, medium and small sized business models based on the assurance of affordable petrol.

Yes, we are in for a big wakeup and a major shift in the way we conduct our lives.

This is not insurmountable, however, as several European countries have shown that healthy, growing and sustainable economies can be achieved even with $7/gal. gasoline.

[JNelson6563]

17. "Other"

The sheeple will awaken fully when it gets cold out and the heating bills start coming. Reminds me of the whole camel, straw, back thing.

Julie

[SpiralHawk]

19. As soon as the first heating bills start rolling in

and we see how massive are the profits the BushCo Oil Republicans are making off the misery of citizens.

[smartvoter]

28. For whatever reason, few are even tying the two together at the pump. nt