Beta is trying to be born??? Storm weary people may want to stay updated

[stop the bleeding]

on this

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/261758.shtml?


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1010
MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 9.5N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA
AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING
BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 79W-83W S OF SAN ANDRES
ISLAND.

Could this be BETA?????:think:

[merh]

1. :-(

:-( :scared:

NO.MORE!! UNCLE!!!

[stop the bleeding]

2. What part of the Caribbean do you reside in??

Me - Tampa, FL, always have an eye on NOAA's updates.

[merh]

10. MS Gulf Coast & storm weary here!

:-(

[stop the bleeding]

11. Oh dear, you guys took a terrible licking this year, good luck with the

recovery!O8)

[merh]

12. Woops - was going to post to your response & screwed it all up.

:blush: Yep, we have taken one hell of a beating. :-(
That is why I am so storm weary!

Have you seen this footage? http://www.gulfcoastforums.com/movie.wmv

[stop the bleeding]

14. Wow is all I can say, you caughtme a twork on my lunch break

and I'm sitting here :cry: like I did when all of this was going on.

It just never gets any easier to look at no matter how many different images you see.

Maybe a video a year from now showing how much progress has been made?


I usually drive through the Gulf coast every March - so maybe this year I will be able to see the scope of the damage for my own eyes, and will probably make me all sad again.

Good luck with everything and take care.

[merh]

19. Thanks for the good wishes.

:hi:

:hug:

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. Cute, very cute

but there is no global warming, truly, it is a figment of our collective imaginations

[FVZA_Colonel]

4. Why haven't they used names beginning with X, Y, and Z?

I understand the system of using Greek letters after this year's supply of names have run out, but why aren't they using names like Xavier, Yasmine, and Zachery (for example) before switching over?

[stop the bleeding]

8. Not enough different names from year to year for those letters to be used

and not get overused.

[gorgan]

18. and using greek letters provides more?

I'm unclear on the concept here. You run out of english alphabet names, and exclude x, y, & z because there arent' enough names, so you switch to the names of greek letters, which is strictly a one-to-one relationship?

[Lisa]

24. most of the time, there aren't this many storms ...

The current system was devised at a time when it was seen as highly unlikely that we would ever max out the English alphabet (even if we dropped the less-popular letters). And -- it has worked just fine up until now -- and it wasn't as if there was no provision made for high-storm years at all. Because the lists are pre-set years in advance, I guess there are policies against arbitrarily changing them when you're partway through. (It works like that for naming stars, asteroids, etc. too -- one country can't do it unilaterally.)

Name list (up to 2010):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml


I hope that this backup plan is a once-off. A lot of climate experts I work with are not entirely certain that there WILL be this many named storms per year in the future, once we come off this newest cycle. Scientists are reluctant to be seen as overreacting, because at this stage, deciding we need to add more names to the lists could be construed as political. (And this administration tends to be hard on people who are seen as being "too active" when it comes to global climate change.) If we see this many storms next year, and the year after, my guess is that there will be pressure for the World Met Organization to alter the naming protocols.

[stop the bleeding]

29. The greek letters are a back up plan, and therefor they do not get

over used, when was the last time we used the Greek Alphabet. I don't know but I'm guessing its been a while.

X,Y, Z

How many names begin with those letters not a whole lot so after a few seasons you would be recycling the names over and over again.

A name will be retired for two reasons. 1. if they end being used in too many seasons over a given series of decades(being recycled too much) or 2. if the storm is so severe then they will retire it that way.

This is a regular topic of discussion here in Florida for all of the meteorologists and residents.

[Lisa]

30. I don't recall there ever having been a Hurricane (or Typhoon) Alpha ...

They did use "Able, Baker, Charlie" way back. Before that they had saints' names (based on the day the storm formed) and then the names of women (girlfriends of the meteorologists?). They started mixing in male names more recently (running out of distinctive female ones, and also times had changed -- more women in science!).

Until now, most years have not warranted having this many names (they usually don't make it through the abbreviated alphabet lists).

Records of past seasons:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml

In the Atlantic (named storms, and date of last one's demise)
1995: A-T, Nov 1
1996: A-M, Nov 26
1997: A-G, Oct 17
1998: A-N, Dec 1
1999: A-L, Nov 23
2000: A-N, Oct 21
2001: A-O, Dec 4
2002: A-L, Oct 4
2003: A-P, Dec 11
2004: A-O, Dec 3

There are several regions in the world where they need to come up with storm names. Maybe the reason for having the lists planned so far in advance is to avoid possible overlap? The trend now is to use the types of names which are popular among the local residents. Some of these lists include names starting with "X", "Z", and others which aren't common in English.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

[WritingIsMyReligion]

23. Don't use those letters. n/t

[teach1st]

5. From Dr. Jeff Masters' Blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Tropical disturbance north of Panama
A tropical disturbance in the extreme south central Caribbean north of Panama has gotten better organized this morning. Two surface circulations have developed, one near 10N 81W just off the northwest coast of Panama, and one at 11N 76W just off the northwest coast of Venezuela. An impressive blow-up of deep convection is occurring this morning, and the QuikSCAT satellite measured winds of 15 - 25 mph, and one wind vector of 50 mph. Wind shear values over the disturbance have dropped to 10 knots, and are forecast to remain low this week. Most of the global forecast models predict that a tropical depression will form in this region later this week, and move slowly west-northwest toward Nicaragua.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A strong tropical wave is approaching the Leeward Islands today, and will spread heavy rains to those islands today and to Puerto Rico Thursday. Wind shear levels are about 10 - 15 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm development. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this time. This system looks similar to the tropical wave that spawned Tropical Storm Alpha, so we'll have to watch it as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Only 35 days left in Hurricane Season

We could have another three, five, six tropical cyclones of some nature form in that period. And don't forget, there have been occasional out-of-season tropical storms and hurricanes, as late as early January.

When will it end? Epsilon? Xi? Sigma? It's going to sound like Greek Row at Big State U. in a few weeks.

This isn't all that bad, though, when you come to think of how hard the Pacific basin storms hit land. But the big clue that The End Is Near will be the first Arctic tropical cyclone.

--p!

[the_spectator]

7. Yeah, but we probably won't have to worry much about Hurricane Beta -

I mean, it's sure to have a lot of bugs, and be ready to crash at any moment. I mean, it's just beta.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. RLOL

:spray: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :spray: :spray: :spray:

[Silverhair]

13. Alpha was never even a tropical storm.

They used that name up for a tropical depression. Names aren't supposed to be used until it becomes a storm. Until then they number them. Now they are naming deppressions?

[jsheriff]

15. re: Alpha was never even a tropical storm.

Alpha was a tropical depression for most of its short life, but did spin up to tropical storm status at one point. It dropped back down to a tropical depression after about 6 hours or so.

[stop the bleeding]

17. Agreed - And welcome to DU!

:hi:

[newyawker99]

27. Hi jsheriff!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[William769]

16. Alpha was a tropical storm & lost strength

& went back to a tropical depression.

[Silverhair]

21. OK. And thank to both of you. NT

[Javaman]

20. The never ending hurricane season.

What happens when they run out of Greek letters?

[Silverhair]

22. Hebrew Alpabet? Aleph, Beth, Daleth, Gimmel

Hope I spelled them right. It has been 25 years since I took Hebrew, and I didn't do too well then.

[Lisa]

25. If that happens, I suggest the following ...

"Aaaah-here-comes-another!"
"But-there-is-no-global-warming"
"Could-we-make-CNN-stop-the-annoying-windblown-reporter-coverage?"
"Damn!-where-is-FEMA?"

etc.

[SoCalDem]

26. pictures of caribbean storms right now

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html

[stop the bleeding]

28. Here are some updated model runs for Beta and Gamma as of 7:33pm EST

Will give another update for models later tonight, if needed.

Beta



Gamma




The tropics the gift that keeps on giving and oh yeah there is 3rd system further out in the Atlantic that NOAA is watching.