Will Corzine be upset in NJ?

[WI_DEM]

I think it's important to win both VA and NJ Governorships tomorrow, and I'm cautiously optimistic about VA where Kaine has been making gains in the last few weeks, but for some reason I'm not as optimistic about NJ--yes, Corzine is ahead, according to the polls, but not one of them, to my knowledge, has him over 50%--and most of these polls have a large number of undecideds--and since Corzine is the more known quanitity--It worries me that he has not been able to seal the deal. If he loses, at least he would still be in the Senate, but I hope he can win so NJ will continue to have a Dem governor and won't give the GOP any bragging rights.

NJ duers how is it looking?

[NJmaverick]

1. It's getting really ugly

His republican opponent is dragging the campaign into the deepest messiest mud in hopes the voters will not be able to tell the two apart. Still Corzine does hold a 6% lead among likely voters with 9% undecided.

[SteppingRazor]

2. I can't imagine Corzine losing this...

he's been ahead through the entire race. Not once has he ever been behind in the polls, IIRC. In that situation, you win. Period. An upset would be truly shocking at this point.

The NJ race I'm more concerned about is Senate 06, which will pit Tom Kean against Corzine's successor (probably Frank Pallone). It'll probably be the Democrats' toughest race, in terms of keeping their own seats.

[WI_DEM]

4. I agree

Kean's dad is pretty popular in NJ.

[TheFarseer]

7. Why on earth did he run for governor anyway?

More on topic, I saw a gambling site that had him at 90-some % to win. The VA governors race had Kaine at 65% to win. Both look pretty good.

[blm]

24. I agree with you. Not sure about the Pallone part, though he would serve

well, too.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Corzine looks pretty good, but not "golden"

Forrester has trotted out The Wives in the last few days; Corzine's ex made several nasty remarks about him, and Forrester's proves that he is a model of familial rectitude, whereas Corzine is a single, tomcatting rich playboy. :eyes:

It will probably be a tight race. Fortunately, Forrester isn't a Nazi, although he did join the party that often enables them.

Beyond that, I'll be happy when all the Forrester mudslinging ads are off the TV.

--p!

[WI_DEM]

6. but could using the ex-wives backfire on Forrester?

it seems like a pretty low ploy.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. Flip them around and you've got how I feel.

I have almost no worries about Corzine and many about Kaine, and it all has to do with turnout. It's an off-year election, meaning it's going to come down to hardcore voters and those with an axe to grind. That bodes very well in highly Democratic NJ, but not very well for Kaine at all. I think Kaine needs a 5%+ lead to take the election tomorrow.

[TheFarseer]

10. maybe people with an ax to grind against bush

will come out and give Kaine the support he needs? I agree, usually the funies and nutcases give the GOP the advantage in GOTV.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. Yeah, this is Virginia we're talking about here.

Despite all the lipservice, it is NOT even close to being a blue state, which means an uphill battle for us in GOTV.

[DaveinMD]

the poll

that came out today looked good. I think he'll win.

[WI_DEM]

9. which poll is that

do you have the numbers? Thanks!

[DaveinMD]

16. I got this email today

Quinnipiac: Corzine 52%, Forrester 45%
Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers: 43%-37%

Democratic U. S. Sen. Jon Corzine leads Republican Douglas Forrester 52 – 45 percent among likely voters in the race for Governor of New Jersey, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. In this final survey, undecided voters are allocated to the candidates they are most likely to support, a step not taken in prior surveys.
The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey shows Republicans back Forrester 90 – 9 percent, while Democrats back Corzine 90 – 9 percent and independent voters back the Republican 49 – 46 percent.
“Doug Forrester was always the underdog in this battle of the multi-millionaires, and when the campaign turned negative and ugly, his upward momentum slowed. The bottom line is that even when things are equal in New Jersey, the Democrats win,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
From October 31 – November 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 775 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research.

www.politicsnj.com

[WI_DEM]

17. that's encouraging

though I'm disappointed to see independents breaking for Forrester. Hopefully we will get out our voters tomorrow.

[Gloria]

23. Independents for Forrester?? that freaks me out, as a lifelong

Jersey until I moved to NM 5 years ago.

NJ should know better!!

[SaveElmer]

8. Recent History suggests Kaine will lose in Virginia...

When Democrats win the governorship here in Va., they typically need to be ahead by 6-10 points in polls right before election day. For some reason, in those years polls tend to way overstate the margin. Wilder was ahead by 10 points on election day and won by less than 1. Warner was ahead by 10 last time and only won by 5. Kaine's best margin I have seen is 3. Unless things change this is not good news!!

[davidinalameda]

11. it's going to be close

but I think that Kaine will pull it out

[TheFarseer]

18. My theory is that support for Potts will disappear

when election day comes around and all those votes will go to Kilgore. I'd say this one is 50-50

[fhqwhgads]

12. i'm not terribly concerned...

corzine should win by 6+ points...i think the polls are making the race look closer than it really is.

the thing that concerns me is the senate race, once corzine gives up his seat. kean jr. is polling ahead of everybody, except corzine himself, and acting governor codey. i'd actually like to see codey run for that senate seat but i don't think he will. part of the problem is that the potential dem candidates - pallone, andrews, menendez, holt - don't have statewide name recognition. kean obviously does, as do corzine and codey. whoever the eventual dem nominee is will need to be very well-funded so he can raise his profile.

[WI_DEM]

13. I wonder why Codey won't?

It seems he has done a good job as acting governor, and he didn't run to give the opportunity to Corzine.

[LetsGoMurphys]

15. I am currently living in Philly and have to put up with these ads...

I have never seen dirtier politics in my life. Its absolutely disgusting. They just make wild accusations about each other. It reminds me of the WWF or something of that nature.

[louis-t]

19. Saw one of their debates on C-span.

Forrester uses bush talking point tactics. Makes statements he can't verify, twists facts to suit his needs and then just plain lies. Corzine held his own.

[alkaline9]

20. I'm one of those independents who is still undecided...

...I know i should vote for Corzine just to keep the state blue, but I really have no hope in either Corzine or Forrester doing anything good or bad to our state anytime soon.

There is no way I'm voting for Forrester...
I may vote for Corzine...
I may not vote at all...

Or I may decide to give my vote to the candidate wanting to legalize marijuana (I don't even recall his name, but I like the statement). After the talk of progress of medicinal marijuana use in Cali, and the newest legislation in Denver, I think this issue is beginning to matter more and more to me.

If I'm considering not voting at all, why not just vote to make a statement?

[DaveinMD]

21. this attitude

is why Dems lose elections. If you care about the future of the state, vote Democrat. Corzine has been a very good Senator and will do great things for New Jersey.

[WI_DEM]

22. I can't believe this

Corzine has been a pretty liberal Senator, and would clearly be the best and most realistic choice for NJ. Yes, you could vote for the candidate wanting to legalize marijuana, but he certainly won't win and if it's a close enough election may get enough votes to give Forrester the election.

[flyarm]

30. may i say this...to independants..

i was a delegate to the democratic convention and for almost a year corzine wrote letters to all of us so we would know exactly what the dems weredoing at all times..his letters were clear concise..and to the point, he pointed out where we could work and help fellow dems, and how to go about it , he kept us up to date with who was running in what state for what seats and principles...

i thought corzine was brilliant and caring, and that he was on top of everything that was going on...i wish to god i could vote for corzine...as i have two homes one in fla and one in nj..fla is my homestead now and where i vote, but i sure wish i could proudly cast my vote for corzine...

and let me tell you , living under jeb bush..is the worst thing i have ever had to endure..and i have lived in 9 states, with many governors...

i would be damn proud to vote for Senator Corzine!!

i am jealous!!

fly

[McCamy Taylor]

25. ELECTION FRAUD will determine the winners in both states,

because the GOP will use as much electronic and other election fraud as it thinks it can get away with in order to turn a state GOP so that it can use unlimited election fraud in the next election.

Having a GOP Governor is basically their green light to taking over the election process in a state. After that, the RNC can do anything they want.

It is election fraud not the poll numbers that will decide how these states go, and the RNC will use as much fraud as they can, may even go overboard (at Rove's insistance) since the 2006 elections are crucial to keeping GOP control of the Congress so that W. cant get impeached and so Rove can keep his failsafe pardon. And after all, if the RNC gets caught doing election fraud, no one is going to prosecute them, right? The FBI and DOJ hasnt prosecuted anything that has happened in Ohio.

The deciding factor will be if the states have fraud proof election systems in place.

[Armstead]

26. Question -- Is Corzine fighting clean in NJ?

Is Corzine managing to avoid the temptation to slip to the level of Forester in terms of mudslinging?

I'm wondering, because if he is, a victory for Corzine would be a victory over dirty GOP tactics.

[DaveinMD]

27. its New Jersey

no election in NJ is pretty.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Corzine will win but closer than expected

He has facial hair. Statewide or national candidates with mustaches or facial hair never match their consensus poll numbers. I can't think of an exception. The theory is women won't vote for them in typical percentage, even if they don't realize that's the factor. Good thing he's well ahead in the polls just like the senate race in'00.

[journalist3072]

29. I think Corzine will win..

I think the whole idea of Forrester using Corzine's ex-wife in those ads will backfire.