which pro-gun states could Dean win?

[pstokely]

TN
MO
any others

[ButterflyBlood]

1. WV

[David Zephyr]

28. Yep!

West Virginia is a sure thing with Dean.

[Bombtrack]

53. So Gore couldn't West Virginia, Mosouri and Tenessee

but a candidate who disagrees with 3/4ths of voters on Foreign policy will


You people need to get your heads out of the clouds

Dean is now, and will be until a monumental shift in national public opinion occurs, the most unelectable candidate since Walter Mondale.

On social issues in the states mentioned above, and on foreign policy and pro-tax-increase everywhere else. He'd win 70 electoral votes if he was lucky, save for some watergate-like media event

99 percent of gun-nuts would chose Bush over Dean, and if only 25 percent of them went for Bush Dean would still lose. Gore didn't lose to Bush in redneck states because he wasn't pro-NRA enough, that was only a small part of it. He lost there because Bush conveyed the image that he had his feet more firmly rooted in the south and in "middle america" in general.

It is just plane masochistic for the most left-liberal anti-bush people to nominate such an easy friggin target.

[CMT]

2. West Virginia

is most likely since it is traditionally Democratic and Bush's winning it was something of a fluke.

[Cocoa]

3. do you have a position on guns?

care to share it?

[jagguy]

54. I like on the hip

but shoulder holsters are OK too.

[mandyky]

4. Possibles

Montana
Wyoming
Arkansas
Indiana
Arizona
New Mexico
Maybe Kentucky

[jiacinto]

10. No on Wyoming and Indiana

Wyoming and Indiana are not going to vote Democratic in a presidential election.

Arizona will depend on how the race goes. Same for KY. Same for MT.

NM is in play. KY might be in play.

But definitely not WY and IN.

[redeye]

11. I'm not sure about IN

Wyoming is hopeless, havign been Bush's best state in 2000. Indiana is not, though, because while it is historicaly Republican, Indianapolis has (or at least had 2-3 motnhs ago) the highest Dean meetup membership.

[jiacinto]

12. Indiana has not voted Democratic since 1964

It will stay Republican in 2004.

[redeye]

13. Right...

...but the questions here is, how much of Indiana's Republicanism stems from pro-gun sentiments? If a significant portion of it does, then Dean might have a shot at this state, or at least can elevate it from safe GOP to lean GOP.

[ButterflyBlood]

22. it's not from that

there's a lot of religious right influence and cultural conservatism. a social liberal like Dean can't win there.

[redeye]

23. Oh, crap

I concede my case.

[ieoeja]

24. And it has Democrats in statewide offices.

One Senator and, last I looked, the Governor.

The people where I grew up are a prime example. They call themselves Democrats. They vote in the Democratic primary. In the general election they almost entirely vote in Democrats. But when they're sending anyone to Washington, they vote for the Republican because they don't want their guns being taken away.

There are some who vote Republican on the abortion issue. Oddly, the only people I meet down home who vote Republican because of abortion are women (the church ladies). When a man has brought it up, it has always been as an after thought.

[jiacinto]

52. Why Indiana is Republican

It lacks the heavy urban presence that you find in neighboring states. It doesn't have a Chicago, Cleveland, or Detroit.

[ieoeja]

56. Indianapolis is the 12th Largest City in the US

Less than 200000 fewer than Detroit, and more than 300000 bigger than Cleveland

But less than 100000 bigger than Columbus, the largest city in Ohio. That is certainly a fact I did not know. Probably for the same reason Indy ranks so high. Early on Indy annexed the entire county. So where Detroit and Cleveland have suburbs, Indy does not.

As a result you are correct, Indy is NOT the center of a heavy urban presence.

[redeye]

58. But...

...like Columbus and Cincinnati and unlike Detroit and Cleveland, it is a conservative city. Don't ask me why, I'm only observing county results in presidential elections and repeating analyses I've read.

[ieoeja]

61. Cause they have corn fields in Indianapolis!

As I said, they annexed the entire county. So much of Indianapolis is actually undeveloped. And much of what is, would be a suburb to most large cities. And suburbanites vote Republican.

Actually, come to think of it, suburbanites are typically swing voters. So there may be hope for Indiana yet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. New Mexico Should Be In The Dem Column

It has gone Dem in the last four elections.

No southern state except West Virginia will be in play unless there's a southerner on the ticket and it's still a long shot

[ArkDem]

46. Arkansas not likely

.

[demnan]

5. Florida

if they have honest elections. Afterall they are double-Bush wacked down there.

[redeye]

6. New Hampshire...

...will be almost safely Democratic with Dean as presidential candidate.

Also, there're Arizona (especially if Dean picks Richardson as VP), Tennessee, Kentucky, maybe Ohio, pretty safely Michigan (strong NRA presence but Democratic tendencies nonetheless), hopefully Montana, Colorado, maybe Arkansas, and NC if Edwards's VP and the Democrats are lucky.

[Clete]

7. All of them where unemployment is high.

[w13rd0]

8. I definately think Dean can take Missouri...

...especially if the "Branson contingent" is utterly demoralized by that time, oh, and maybe we could 'accidentally' strike all the TalentTown west country Bushbots from the voter rolls, since they can be mistaken for clones...

[sfecap]

9. FWIW...

A story.

I am a union member. In the 2000 Presidential elections, many of my fellow union members voted for * solely based on their (irrational, IMO) fear that Al Gore was going to take their guns away. They bought the NRA/Rove bullshit hook, line, and sinker. I am certain that many are sorry now, but that's another story...

I am not a gun owner, don't have any desire to be. I favor resonable, rational gun laws that are rigorously enforced.

From a purely political POV, Gov. Dean represents a unique candidate w/r/t the gun issue. He has a 100% rating from the NRA. He cannot be accused of "wanting to take everyone's guns away". This is a very powerful bit of ammunition (pardon the pun...) for the Democratic candidate. Dems have ALWAYS been made to appear vunerable on this issue. Dean won't be. That will, IMO, win him a lot of votes from the conservative Dems, Independants, and moderate Republicans who vote the NRA line.

Frankly, I also agree with Gov. Dean on this.

[lastliberalintexas]

15. Yep

These are the people I am talking about. Overwhelmingly white males who work union (or non-union blue collar) jobs who SHOULD be voting Dem. The ones who have a mostly live and let live approach to life, don't buy into the religious right baloney about abortion and gays, but still vote repub because of the gun issue.

I guess I don't have to tell you sfecap how frustrating it is to go to a union hall to campaign for Dem candidates and get "Yeah they sound great, but do they believe in gun control?" And even though most Texas Dems are opposed to gun control, the national party's stand on guns has helped to kill off plenty of good Dems here. And the 2000 convention was awful for us- we had to run against the repubs AND the national Dem party!

And the NRA counts on this. As far as I am concerned, the NRA cares about gun issues as much as the Christian Coalition cares about Christians- we all know they really just care about getting repubs elected. But Dean can neuter that organization in 2004. Yes, they'll still probably endorse Shrub. But it won't matter as much given Dean's rating from them.

I'd say we could pick up New Hampshire and West Virginia pretty easily. And Dean puts Louisiana, Tennessee, Arkansas and maybe Montana and Colorado back in play. On the flip side and what's even more important here- Dean's stand does probably nothing to drive Dem voters away.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. How Does Dean Put Tennessee In Play When

Al Gore couldn't carry it.

[redeye]

17. Al Gore supports strict gun control

Dean doesn't.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Voting Republican For White Males In The South

is a cultural thing that transcends guns.

I'll bet if you looked at the data that less than 35% of white southern males vote Democratic.

It literally is entwined with their definition of masculinity.


Gore lost touch with Tennessee or it is more fair to say Tennessee lost touch with him.

I predict Tennessee wil become one of the reliable red states like Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina.

It is the cultural divide that divides the blue states from the red states.

[lastliberalintexas]

20. Wow

I need to tell my hubby, my dad, both my grandfathers, 3 uncles and a couple of cousins that they are voting the wrong way. /sarcasm/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I'm Not Saying It's The Way Things Should Be

It's the way things are.

There are very few white male Democrats in the South.

In fact the last Democrat to get a majority of the white vote was Lyndon Johnson.

I doubt very few Dems in the South carry a majority of the white vote. They have to rely on the African American vote to make up their defecit in the white community.

[lastliberalintexas]

26. Baloney

We've lost the South in presidential races, but that's not losing the South entirely. In 2002, TN elected a Dem Gov, Landrieu won a fierce and nasty re-election battle against a Shrub machine repub, Dems still took the Cong delegation in Texas (even in repub districts), the Alabama and Georgia Gov races were verrry tight, and Barnes and Cleland probably DID win in Georgia. If the gun issue can become a non-issue, the South is in play again.

Again, I'm not talking about the people who buy into the Christian Coalition baloney. But there are many votes out there (and in places outside of the South like Minnesota and Pennsylvania, too) that SHOULD be Dems, but they go repub based on guns.

All you're doing is steretyping voters based on the region in which they reside. Oh so productive analysis there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. How Many Democratic Senators Are There In Southern States?

Virginia -0

North Carolina -1

South Carolina -1

Georgia- 0

Florida -2

Alabama-0

Mississippi -0

Arkansas- 1

Kentucky -0

Texas -0

Louisiana -2

Unless my math is wrong the Democrats have seven out of twenty two seats . Not very good.

[lastliberalintexas]

35. Actually,

I think Dems hold both Senate seats in Arkansas, and Miller is still counted as a Dem in Georgia.

I have not said the Dem party is STRONG in the South. What I have said is that these states are back IN PLAY if the gun issue becomes a non-issue. Since the margin of voctory for repubs has been tight even in the South (except Texas), a swing of just a few points changes the outcome. And again, look at the state officials in many Southern states. For example, Alabama's state lege is controlled by Dems, but they vote repub in federal elections. Don't underestimate just how much of that is because of the gun issue.

And the margin of victory for the repubs is actually smaller in the Southern states than in Western. I think we lose votes in the West because of guns too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. My Bad

Zell Miller of Georgia is a Democrat

and

David Pryor and Blanche Lincoln Lambert of AK are Democrats.

[ArkDem]

45. AK is Alaska

.

[ArkDem]

43. Arkansas has 2

Lincoln and Pryor.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Thank You

Alaska has two (R)s but it might be in play in 04 cuz the Senator who ran for Governor appointed his daughter to take his seat

[DemocratSinceBirth]

31. You Accuse Me Of Stereotyping Voters Based On Their Region Yet

your screen name is "Last Liberal In Texas"

Haven't you already made that determination

[lastliberalintexas]

19. TN just voted for a Dem Gov in 2002

who is not seen as "anti-gun" as Gore was.

[mandyky]

25. Al Gore was too busy

reinventing himself, and even him opening his campaign office in Nashville seemed phoney since he'd lived in DC for most of his life.

Tennessee is a possibility for Dean.

[mandyky]

27. Guns are also important in

PA
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin

All of which Dean has a good shot at. (excuse pun)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. Those Are All States Gore Carried

We have to win some red states to recapture the White House.

[ButterflyBlood]

29. It'd help a lot in Minnesota too

Gore only won 3 out of the 8 districts here (although the Nader vote made some districts very very close and winnable otherwise). 2 of those were the Twin Cities were the gun issue probably didn't hurt him much, but the third was the solidly Democratic Iron Range, which didn't go overwhelmingly to Gore as much as it should have. I suspect the gun issue was one reason why. It also would help in the south and west, and sew up the state. I imagine it'd be similar in Wisconsin too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. I Hope We Carry Minnesota. We've Carried It In

the last five races.

That's a natural part of the Democratic base

[redeye]

37. Minnesota...

...has gone Dem 10 times out of 11 since 1960. No other state has that honor except DC, which has gone Democratic 10 out of 10 times; even Massachusetts and RI voted for Reagan twice.

[ieoeja]

34. Election 2004: a Referendum on Gay Rights

Firearms have been a serious problem for Democratic candidates in the past, and Dean should absolutely make that a complete non-issue if he is the candidate. The rightwing media machine will have to find something else. Those two things will be Dean's opposition to the Iraqi War. And Dean's support of gay unions.

Unfortunately, Gay Rights is a loser. There is an awfully lot of intense hatred of gays. On the other hand, a lot of people don't like to admit their bigotry even to themselves. So maybe I am wrong.

And I am starting to lean towards Dean just because it would be nice to see political discourse over a progressive issue like Gay Rights instead of conservative issues like Gun Rights or School Prayer. That is where progress has really been losing the battle. Progressive issues are not even part of the public discourse anymore. We spend all our time arguing regressive issues instead.


Disclaimer: his opposition to the Iraqi War would see him go down in flames in the general election anyway. On some subjects DUers have absolutely no grasp on how the larger public thinks. You remember the anti-war movement during Vietnam, but keep forgetting that anti-war politicians got their hats handed to them. Even if 70% of the people in this country thought we should get out of Iraq NOW, half of them would still not vote for a candidate who said that as long as our military is still in the field. Polls did not show majority opposition to the war in Vietnam until AFTER we began our withdrawal.

[poskonig]

36. Dean's doing fine.

Though I'm sure he would put someone like General Clark on the ticket to put doubters minds at ease.

[ButterflyBlood]

38. fact from last election

no one who voted against the war lost in either house, except Maloney in CT, who was redistricted against another incumbent and had a scandal against him. pro-war sentiment didn't hurt anyone.

I don't see how gay rights is a serious loser when half the population supports civil unions, and anyone who is so bigoted they won't vote for anyone who supports civil unions no matter what doesn't seem like someone who'd vote for a Democrat anyway.

[ieoeja]

49. I said I might be wrong on Gay Unions.

And those votes against going to war was BEFORE men were in the field. Nobody views a vote against going to war as "not supporting the troops".

It was his statements WHILE men are in the field that would be the problem. Those statements were made well before the election, however, and before most people even knew who he was. So that might not be as much of a killer as I said even with the Republicans blasting it all over the place. Even though it was WHILE we were there, it was near enough the beginning that it might be spun as part of the argument against going in beforehand. It would be a lie, but what the heck. Lies work!

Personally, I am still wavering 'tween Kerry and Dean. I actually think Graham might be the best, but expect he'll be gone by the time the Illinois primary rolls around. Like everyone else at DU there is no way I'm voting for Holy Joe in the primary. And I don't think any of the others are qualified for the presidency.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

39. Thank You...

I have a M.A. in political science. I did post graduate work at FSU in Government. I wish there was a progressive resevoir of voters that we could tap into.

I am a yellow dog Democrat. I have never voted Republican in nearly thirty years of voting. Never.

But I am an empericist. My analysis is based on data not hope.

I distinguish between is and ought to be.

I can't ignore the fact that Carter carried two southern states in 1980, Mondale didn't carry any in 1984. Dukakis carried one in 1988.
Clinton carried five in 1992 and 1996 and Gore didn't carry any in 2000.

The data informs me.

You think any of the nine announced candidates haven't pondered this dilemma. Please...

[ieoeja]

51. But Why did Gore lose some non-Southern states?

Granted that the bible belt despises liberal social values in addition to having strong feelings about firearm rights. But, whereas firearm rights are very important to many states outside the bible belt, I do not believe non-biblical issues are. Or are we wrong not to consider Ohio, Indiana, Montana, etc part of the bible belt?


Suppose Dean won all of the states that Gore won last time. This, as you say, does not include a single southern** state. In 2004, this would have left Gore ten electoral votes shy of victory. Ohio going Dean because of the neutralized firearms issue would put Dean well over the top. Even Indiana would put him over the top by itself.

And lest we forget, Nevada is almost certain to go Democrat this time around after being rolled by Bush on the Yucca Mountain issue. So now we only need FIVE electoral votes.

Electoral votes and non southern** states Gore lost:

20 - Ohio
11 - Indiana
10 - Arizona
9 - Colorado
5 - Nebraska
5 - Nevada
5 - Utah
5 - West Virginia
4 - New Hampshire
4 - Idaho
3 - Montana
3 - North Dakota
3 - South Dakota
3 - Wyoming


** Gore carried New Mexico. I am assuming you are therefore referring to Confederate and some border (Kentucky, Oklahoma, Kansas) states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. Interesting Question

I don't really consider Florida part of The Bible Belt as it is comprised of so many transpalnts. Same for North Carolina.

But it gets tricky because there are parts of NC and FL that could be considered Bible Belt.

Ohio and Indiana have many rural voters who are culturally consevative. Montana is part of the mountain west with a strong strain of liberterianism.

I think the Bible Belt appelation is a little strong. I think the great divide is the traditional values divide. That's why Gore took
Lieberman. I think it worked a bit in states like PA, MI, IO, that have large rural areas. Onviously , it didn't work in the South.

I think Ohio will be in play this year. I think Bush carried it by less than four percentage points.

I think it's the fact that rural voters think Dems are on the wrong side of the cultural debate. Being pro gun is just a part of a larger cluster of conservative values.

[ieoeja]

60. We will have to agree to disagree then.

As you say, Montana has that strong libertarian streak. And I believe libertarians are pro-abortion, pro-Gay Rights, and couldn't care less about school prayer. But don't mess with their firearms!

Of course, they are also anti-regulation. But then a big issue in the northern plains concerns the use of public lands. Ranchers use the government land -- then complain when the gov't wants to make rules for its use, but lets not go there -- for their own use. However, under Bush a lot more of the land has been leased to mining and oil companies. What's worse, these companies are apparently giving very little attention to the damage they are doing, damaging water supplies used by the cattle, etc.

While on the mountain side of those states that merge into the mountains -- and when it comes to the mountains vs the plains, you're talking apples and oranges in these states -- environmental issues are highly valued. I know the "taking away land and damaging water supplies" sounds like an environmental issue too, but I don't believe they think of it in those particular terms.

[redeye]

57. The analysis sounds about right

I'd also say that Arizona will become Democratic either in 2004 or in 2008, because of demographic trends of increasing Hispanic population (plus, Dean's gun stance won't hurt him, nor will choosing Bill Richardson as VP). Colorado will be a tossup because of Dean's gun stance.


Anyway, AFAIK, by "Southern" people usually refer to the 11 Confederate states plus Oklahoma and Kentucky. The southern parts of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri are becoming part of the upper south, but in terms of states, there are the 11 confederates plus KY and OK.

[styersc]

40. Absolutely none.

Dean is a doomed candidate. I appreciate his contribution to the debate and am happy that he moved everyone else left but as far as winning any states at all, he would even have a fight in Vermont.

[dolstein]

41. You can forget Tennessee and Missouri

Bush would carry those states by at least 10 points against Dean.

People say Dean's pro-gun. But he's not as pro-gun as the Bush administration, which put the NRA poster boy, John Ashcroft, in charge of the Justice Department.

People who say Dean would neutralize the gun issue are just plain wrong. Single-issue gun voters WILL see a difference in the positions of the two candidates.

And even if Dean could somehow manage to neutrlize the gun issue, his positions on social issues (aboriton, gay rights, school prayer) and his dovish stance on foreign policy will make him unacceptable to the vast majority of rural pro-gun voters.

The fact is than for a Democrat to do well in the South, having a Southern accent counts for a hell of a lot more than your position on the Second Amendment. Bill Clinton, the most pro-gun control president we've ever had, managed to carry Southern states in both of his presidential runs. And while Al Gore didn't carry any Southern states, he was competitive in Arkansas, Tennessee and Florida despite being heavily outspent by the Bush campaign and its right-wing allies. If it weren't for Ralph Nader, Gore might have had the time and resources to carry each of these states.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

44. Don't Forget Chimpy Is A Southerner

and fancies himself a cowboy too.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. I'll Bet If You Look At The Data You Will See That Being Pro-Gun

is part of a larger cluster of values that tend to be conservative.

For instance I bet most gun enthusiasts are hostile to much of the Democratic social agenda.

[ieoeja]

50. Not in the North.

Northern rural folk, at least most I have met, seem fairly lackluster when it comes to discussions of social issues. They only really get fired up when talking about firearm rights. When discussing the other issues you can hear the Republican talking points coming out of their mouth, but you don't really get the feeling they give a damn.

They're just trying to come up with more reasons to support the guy who supports their civil rights, i.e. firearm ownership and possession.

I do not know about the western plains and mountain states. I know firearm rights are a big issue with them. From what I can tell I believe that environmental issues come next, but are always trumped by the firearms issue.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. David Brooks

wrote a good article in The Atlantic a couple of years ago on the difference between Blue and Red State voters.

I'm not a fan of David Brooks. He's a conservative and he's too Pollyannaish for me but it's a good read.

Gore and Bush voters have profoundly different world views which he writes about.

[pstokely]

63. Gore last those states by less than 5%

Dean couldn't get SW Missouri

[ieoeja]

62. Redeye and DemocratSinceBirth

I'm outta here for the weekend.

[UrbScotty]

64. We should keep MI, NM, OR, PA, WA, and WI.

Those should be little problem.

FL, NH, OH, and WV would likely also swing our way.

[janx]

65. The more financial support he has, the more likely he'll win

these states or others. Please see

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=81862&mesg_id=81862&page=2


The bat is BACK!