What swing state should I campaign in?

[last_texas_dem]

Poll question: What swing state should I campaign in?

I have the opportunity to do some campaigning for Kerry... for all I know, I may just do it straight up until November; this election's just too damn important. I'm in TX, though, and I can't do much more than help out local Dems, and I'd really like to focus on kicking Shrub out instead. So I'd like to travel to a swing state; I'll have to find someone to stay with, etc. but otherwise I'd consider campaigning in any state we have a chance in but could be close. Proximity to home is no big deal; in fact, I'm a big fan of colder weather and more liberal people so perhaps the farther from home the better... I've campaigned in New Hampshire and Wisconsin before but would have no problem going back.

I just put this list of states together (and listed them alphabetically) based on the states that had the closest margins, percentage-wise between Gore and Bush. (There were three states with four-point gaps: Nevada, Ohio, and Tennessee- and I was only able to include one- and I picked OH based on its high electoral vote value.) However, I leave the "Other" option as recent polls have shown interesting trends: valuable PA too close and sometimes going for Bush, TN and VA looking closer than expected, and NH and OR looking relatively safe, at least at the moment, among other trends...

So I'm interesting in hearing anyone's input. Thanks!!

[Fone Book]

1. PA Baby! - We need you in the suburbs of Philly!

[last_texas_dem]

3. Yeah

The close polls I've seen from PA have gotten me a little nervous, and I've heard before that the Philly suburbs can be the deciding factor there.

[Bombtrack]

2. Not only should you get the most bang for your buck in Florida,

It's probably got the nicest weather of any of the crucial states during October

[last_texas_dem]

4. Florida is definitely an important one

The cynical part of me is still skeptical about the difference I could make with brother Jebby still in power, but the idealistic part of me would like to see Kerry rack up such a margin that Jeb's thugs couldn't steal it...

[Bombtrack]

10. Look at it this way.

Are you going to tell me you trust the GOP of any state where they are in power? Like Bob Taft and Ohio GOP sec of state?

[last_texas_dem]

11. I see what you mean

The 'pugs try to repress the vote here in TX where they don't even have to worry about being defeated most of the time!

[sidestreamer]

5. This is going to sound crazy, but

I'd try Virginia. Yeah, Virginia. Bush is ahead only 4 points there right now yet they all think that state is secure. North of Richmond the Republican stranglehold wanes somewhat and a good campaign in and around there can weaken it enough to put this state into play. If Florida is salvagable, Virginia is a potential gold mine given the fact that they're starting to take that state for granted.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/sep/sep02-margins.html

BTW, Oregon is ours, I wouldn't worry about that. Colorado is another state we might be able to take... Wisconsin is tight and if we lose them, it might take more than Florida to compensate.

[last_texas_dem]

6. Definitely an interesting trend in Virginia

I read the book The Emerging Democratic Majority back shortly before the '02 elections and the authors' claim that Virginia, which hadn't gone for a Democrat for President since LBJ, could be trending our way within ten years seemed very surprising. But the recent polls out of there are certainly showing it a closer than I would have ever thought. It would be great to see * lose because of a longtime Repub state like VA! Thanks for the suggestion.

[Davion]

7. I heard that the campaign is giving up on Virginia

I heard today that the Kerry campaign is not planning to spend another cent in VA, basically because even though they are polling surprisingly close there, they have pumped a good amount of money into it so far, and have not narrowed that gap at all.

[barackmyworld]

8. probably not NH

basically the entire Mass. is up there canvassing. It's lookin blue.

[last_texas_dem]

12. That's good to hear

Any state that didn't go for Gore in '00 but looks to be going for Kerry this time is a definite plus! I helped out Kerry's campaign (despite the fact that I donated to Edwards and voted for Kucinich... long story. haha) up in NH back in January and was surprised by the number of Republicans who voted for Kerry and other Dems in their own primary. Figured that could be a good sign...

I've been liking the polls I've been seeing coming out of there.

[Droopy]

9. I say Ohio

We need all the help we can get up here and this is a very important state. Rememeber the old saying, "As Ohio goes so goes the nation?"

[last_texas_dem]

13. Ohio is definitely an important one

I've heard it called the FL of '04. And the polls have been really close all along, with a little of a Bush lean it seems, but it definitely seems to still be up in the air.

[Beware the Beast Man]

17. Come to Ohio!

This would make the perfect excuse for an Ohio DU meetup. :hi:

[Kukesa]

29. Ohio, Ohio!! We NEED you, we really do! n/t

[Rhiannon12866]

14. I would suggest Ohio or Iowa, whichever is closer to you

No Republican candidate has ever been elected who didn't carry Ohio. Good luck and Godspeed.:-)

[last_texas_dem]

19. Good point

Hopefully Bush will fail on both counts this year. Thanks!

[Rhiannon12866]

21. I sure hope so!

But I can't help but be scared, after this horrific week. Let us know how you make out! If I was really serious about this, I should also consider registering in Ohio and voting there. They have a very short residency requirement, so this is probably your best bet. I live in a blue state, New York. I am serious, but cannot leave home, just now. Otherwise, I would make a beeline for Ohio.:-)

[last_texas_dem]

23. I know what you mean!

I only live a mile from the Louisiana border myself so maybe I should look into their residency requirements! haha But the polls there haven't been close enough to make them a true "swing" state, though Clinton did carry the state in '92 and '96.

This week has definitely been tough. Despite being a pessimist by nature, though, I can see the up side to this in that I don't think there is much more Shrub can do. He pulled out all the stops this week and, minus any sort of "October surprise"- which might backfire on him anyway, I can't see what more Shrub can say or do to sway the electorate. It seems like his most powerful weapon is the media, which he seems to have in his pocket, but I think the Democrats have passion on their side and if we all work our hardest we can make up the ground we've lost. I guess that's my pep talk after the craziness of this week; perhaps to myself, too, as much as everyone else!

[Rhiannon12866]

24. The thing that really scared me was the positive response to

whatever he says. These people will believe anything, even though I have done my homework and know it is lies. They loved Laura Bush*, who can be very compelling, but I could also easily pick out the lies from her speech. She said that little girls, in Afghanistan, as well as little boys, can attend school, now. I'm sorry to tell her that no children, of either sex, can attend school, just now, since the fighting is so fierce that they would probably be shot. But this is not being reported in the "liberal media." And Dick Cheney's speech, condemning Kerry's "liberal record?" If you tally up the votes, Dick Cheney, as a Congressman, voted against defense spending more times than John Kerry did, as a Senator. Why isn't the media reporting this?! It makes me a little crazy! Thanks for the support! I was beginning to think I was the one who was crazy!:crazy:

[Rhiannon12866]

25. The thing that really scared me was the positive response to

whatever he says. These people will believe anything, even though I have done my homework and know it is lies. They loved Laura Bush*, who can be very compelling, but I could also easily pick out the lies from her speech. She said that little girls, in Afghanistan, as well as little boys, can attend school, now. I'm sorry to tell her that no children, of either sex, can attend school, just now, since the fighting is so fierce that they would probably be shot. But this is not being reported in the "liberal media." And Dick Cheney's speech, condemning Kerry's "liberal record?" If you tally up the votes, Dick Cheney, as a Congressman, voted against defense spending more times than John Kerry did, as a Senator. Why isn't the media reporting this?! It makes me a little crazy! Thanks for the support! I was beginning to think I was the one who was crazy!:crazy:

[tedoll78]

26. I'd like to see a Voter Migration Project

Where folks make friends with people living in Ohio. Then, the Ohio friends let the new residents "move-in" officially, and the new Ohioans vote by absentee. Perhaps a website can set this up? It'd be perfectly legal, if not very ethical.

Then again, I'm not feeling particularly ethical towards the GOP right now..

[Rhiannon12866]

27. I'm not feeling that way, either ,

especially after the unethical way that they behaved over the last week. Also, I was a Kucinich supporter. I think that your idea is a great one and I'd certainly go for it. I would just have to be able bring my two little dogs with me!:-)

[Viking12]

15. Come to Wisconsin, I'll buy you a beer & a brat.

[last_texas_dem]

20. Cool

I helped out the League of Conservation Voters in Wisconsin this summer. (It was fun turning 21 in Milwaukee!) I liked it quite a bit up there.

[FunBobbyMucha]

16. Ohio or Florida

As an ex-pat, I can assure you that Ohioans have almost no convictions and are therefore easily turned. Free Snyder's potato chips for all should do the trick. The average Ohioan just wants to get out of Ohio, either by casket or Carnival cruise.

J/K...

Florida, on the other hand, has probably curdled more than any other swing state from the four years of *.

I personally know a half dozen Cuban Americans in Fl. who are furious over the restrictions on travel and cash to their relatives, and one of my best friends, who has lived and worked honorably and patriotically here for OVER TWENTY YEARS after coming here from Chile, was deemed a security risk (based on a nonviolent crime he served a year for in 1980) and refused reentry to the states after a visit home.

Lots of seething towards Shrubbychimp down there. Fingers crossed.

[last_texas_dem]

18. Thanks so much to everyone...

...who has participated in this poll so far. Interesting... OH seems to have pulled into a strong lead. I just figured I'd give it a good afternoon :kick:kick:kick:.

[saracat]

22. Arizona! We are close and we need the help!

We can be an unexpected win!We are a swing state and have great places to stay!

[Rhiannon12866]

28. You have John McCain, who I admire greatly!

What is up with him?! He was attacked horribly by the Bush* machine in 2000, and he has been the most vocal in attacking this illegal and warmongering administration. I continue to admire John McCain. I voted for him in the 2000 NY primary, since he was so opposed to Bush*. So why is he campaigning for Bush*?!

I have been to Arizona and know what a beautiful state this is. I loved it, and it is my fault that I haven't been back.:-)