Real 03 deficit is $536B before stealing 161 B from Social Security -10 yr

[papau]

Annual 477 deficit in wire service headlines is really 631 next(as in this)budget year before theft from SS.

10 year BASELINE is up $1 trillion to 2.4 trillion over 10 years from the $1.4 trillion estimate we were given just this last August. And you add in the $7.5 trillion that the CBO lays out as likely but not included in the baseline (such as an adjustment in the alt min tax and extention of expiring Bush tax breaks)and we have $9.9 trillion new deficit added on at the end of 10 years.

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=4985&sequence=0



Real deficit is $536B before stealing 161 B from Social Security

Seems the CBO is laying out the numbers but the media refuses to report them!The deficit baseline (ignoring the $7.5 trillion of likely but not certain deficit over 10 years from estentions of the tax cuts, and a change to the Alt Min that is likely)is

year 1... 536 before SS payroll tax theft of 161 billion

.....2....631................................$154 B

.....3....535................................174 B

.....8....511

....10....299 where the drop is the effect of NOT extending the tax cuts.

[papau]

1. CBO used 4.8% growth next year - and still got these numbers -and * cuts

are unreal - so minimal they do not pass laugh test.

Bush has - for this election year -promised an effective freeze on federal discretionary spending not connected to defense or homeland security, calling that the foundation of a push to halve the deficit over five years.

Congressional and private-sector budget analysts, however, note the move would save the government only around $8 billion dollars out of a $2 trillion-plus federal budget -- even if Congress can be made to swallow the cuts it would require.

And all this despite assumptions of economic growth of 4.8 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2005

[papau]

2. CBO director on PBS says making 01 cuts permanent is 1.5T - is this

CBO director on PBS says making 01 cuts permanent is 1.5T - is this additional?

A 1.5 T number does not show up in the 9.9 T (2.4 base plus 7.5 likely) discussion.

Another lie?

[papau]

3. Krugman says tax cuts caused deficits

Krugman thinks anew that the Bush tax cuts caused the record deficit


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/27/opinion/27KRUG.html

<snip> The main reason for deficits, however, is that revenues have plunged. Federal tax receipts as a share of national income are now at their lowest level since 1950.Of course, most people don't feel that their taxes have fallen sharply. And they're right: taxes that fall mainly on middle-income Americans, like the payroll tax, are still near historic highs. The decline in revenue has come almost entirely from taxes that are mostly paid by the richest 5 percent of families: the personal income tax and the corporate profits tax. These taxes combined now take a smaller share of national income than in any year since World War II.

This decline in tax collections from the wealthy is partly the result of the Bush tax cuts, which account for more than half of this year's projected deficit. But it also probably reflects an epidemic of tax avoidance and evasion. Everyone who wants to understand what's happening to the tax system should read "Perfectly Legal," the new book by David Cay Johnston, The Times's tax reporter, who shows how ideologues have made America safe for wealthy people who don't feel like paying taxes.

I was particularly struck by Mr. Johnston's description of the carefully staged Senate Finance Committee hearings in 1997-1998. Senators Trent Lott and Frank Murkowski accused the I.R.S. of "Gestapo"-like tactics, and Congress passed new rules that severely restricted the I.R.S.'s ability to investigate suspected tax evaders. Only later, when the cameras were no longer rolling, did it become clear that the whole thing was a con. Most of the charges weren't true, and there was good reason to believe that the star witness, who dramatically described how I.R.S. agents had humiliated him, really was engaged in major-league tax evasion (he eventually paid $23 million, insisting he had done no wrong).<snip>


So the right has used deceptive salesmanship to undermine tax enforcement and push through upper-income tax cuts. And now that deficits have emerged, the right insists that they are the result of runaway spending, which must be curbed. <snip>

[LimpingLib]

4. Well look at it this way (SS isnt the only raided fund)

When we had a $237 billon "surplus" in the last year of Clinton (first year of Bush) the debt still wnet up from 5 trillion 656 billion $ to $5.674 Trillion . A $237 billion surplus was really an $18 billion deficit but it was the best we had in decades.

So add at least $255 billion on top of the unified budget numbers , probabilly about $275 billion more to be added.

$536 + $270 billion in raided trust funds means the debt will increase $800 billion+ in just 1 year.

They cant hide from the numbers for long as the baby boomers will retire a little after 2010. Not only will there be no SS yearly funds to raid (that means the actual deficit will appear , minus none SS tr=="trust funds" raided , which will still allow some accounting gimmickry) but we will infact have to start paying back the raided funds since 1983 which by 2012 will be $2 trillion in raided funds. It will be the reverse of what we do now. Everything we raid now will need to be paid back and probabilly will add close to $100 billion per year to our deficit and it WONT be hidden ( this time it will be from the general fund to pay back the "trust fund" but only what is needed to get the benefits out during each and every year,anotherwords it will get much worse with every passing year).

Remember the funds were raided since 1983 to fund tax breaks for the wealthy and "defence" budgetary buildups so MAKE SURE WE REQUIRE THOSE 2 sectors ("defence" and the wealthy)to take the hit in the wallet to pay back the trust fund money . GOP will try to say its the "fundamental flaw of Social Security". Not so. It is safe for 40 more years without any adjustments (minor or large)only problem is the money was raided and now it will need to be paid back. Minor adjustments like raising the $84,000 taxable ceiling will ensure the program is solvent for ever.