Opinions of the Senate

[mndemocrat_29]

With several new developments in Georgia and Colorado, I was hoping everyone could post their current opinions on the Senate races.

Alaska-This is beginning to look more and more like a pickup. Recent polls have Knowles with a small, but significant lead. More importantly, Knowles is climbing to the ever impressive 50 percent mark. Gov. Murkowski's continued unpopularity could lead Knowles to take this.
Prognosis-Lean Democrat

Colorado-On the DSCC Website, Salazar is listed as being ahead by eleven points here. Republicans are having a lot of internal problems with their candidate, Bob Schaeffer, and they look very disorganized. With Salazar's brother also running (for the House, much like the Matheson/Matheson races in Utah), this could be a doubly rewarding year for Colorado Democrats.
Prognosis-Lean Democrat

Illinois-Barack Obama sailed out of the primary with a very, very impressive vote turnout (he received nearly three times as many votes as Republican Primary Winner Jack Ryan). While Jack Ryan will be formidable, his campaign is tainted by scandal and Illinois continues to turn bluer every election.
Prognosis-Likely Democrat

Oklahoma-Brad Carson is running a very good campaign, and the Republicans are currently sorting out a primary mess. Current polls have Carson ahead of Humphreys, who looks likely to be the establishment Republican nominee (though Tom Coburn could come in and win the primary). Either way, Carson has an excellent chance here.
Prognosis-Very Small Lean Democrat

North Carolina-Polls consistently show Erskine Bowles with a small lead in the polls (NC Senate races would allow for nothing else), but should do better this time around. Last time, he took on political titan Elizabeth Dole and polls had indicated that Bowles was catching up with Dole going into Election Day. With more experience in the campaigning field, Bowles should be able to replace Sen. Edwards.
Prognosis-Tossup

South Carolina-We could not have asked for a better candidate than Inez Tenenbaum. Elected statewide, she is a Southern female Democrat (which certainly helped Landrieu and Lincoln) and will face off against a primary-bruised Republican candidate. While South Carolina is certainly very Republican, Inez's most likely challenger, For. Gov. David Beasley, is a statewide political loser.
Prognosis-Tossup

Louisiana-With David Vitter embroiled in a potential scandal, the Republicans are looking more and more the loser here, Democrats should be able to take this one, as long as they go with either John Kennedy or Chris John for the general. John appears to have the support of the DSCC.
Prognosis-Lean Democrat

Florida-This will be much clearer once the primaries are decided. Right now, Betty Castor looks like the heir apparent to the Democratic nominee, while Bill McCollum and Mel Martinez are duking it out for the Republican nomination. While McCollum would be the easier to beat of the two candidates, the biggest deciding factor will be whether Florida goes for Kerry or Bush.
Prognosis-Tossup

Georgia-Up until now, I would've had this at a safe Republican pickup. However, with Denise Majette in, there's a small, but real chance we could retain this. Majette proved in 2002 that she can take on tough competition when she beat Rep. Cynthia McKinney in the primary. Though this definitely leans to the Republicans, it is no longer the lost cause it once was.
Prognosis-Lean Republican

Pennsylvania-With the primaries fast approaching and Pat Toomey seemingly gaining, this will be a race to watch. I'd give the advantage to Joe Hoeffel in a Toomey v. Hoeffel matchup, and a slim lead to Arlen Specter if he wins the primary. Either way, this will be close and will definitely hinge on who can turn out the most votes among Kerry and Bush.
Prognosis-Slightly Lean Republican

Missouri and South Dakota favor the incumbents for now, but could become more competitive as the elections draw near.

[NewJerseyDem]

1. New poll in South Carolina

Roll Call is reporting that Tenenbaum leads Beasley 46%-41%, she leads Condon by 7 points and DeMint by 15 points. That is pretty good considering that Beasley and Condon have equal or even higher name recognition than Tenenbaum. DeMint, being a congressman representing only 1/6th of the state, has somewhat lower name ID.

[mndemocrat_29]

2. That is great news

Hopefully Tenenbaum will be able to maintain this lead once the Republican nominee is selected.

[UrbScotty]

3. It's still early, of course.

But I am glad to hear this good news!

[Doomsayer13]

4. I'm doubtful of Majette's chances

she has a moderate to liberal voting record (ADA 100, ACU 20) in a state that has traditionally elected conservative Democrats and Republicans to the senate. Max Cleland was perhaps the most liberal Democrat to ever be elected to the senate in Georgia and even he was considered to be a centrist moderate by many here. She may be currently our strongest candidate, but I don't think she can win. Jim Marshal would've been a better candidate parhaps.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Jim Marshall would've been a better candidate

But he chose not to run. I know that she may be a fairly liberal choice, but she could win if she pushes out the vote to the extreme in Atlanta and there's a sweep. I'm not saying it's very likely, but I'm saying that we have a better shot than before.

[Doomsayer13]

6. yeah, that's true

we do have a better shot, but Majette will need to appeal to voters outside her urban base... we may have a better chance than before but I wouldn't be surprised if the DSCC allocated its resources elsewhere.

[mndemocrat_29]

7. More Good News for Democrats

I was looking at Inez Tenenbaum's website, and the Harriman Hickman poll shows her ahead of all leading Republican challengers:

Tenenbaum-46
Beasley-41

Tenenbaum-47
Condon-40

Tenenbaum-48
DeMint-33

The article also states that Tenenbaum leads among Independent voters (a must to win this seat).

Here's the link for anyone who's interested-http://www.inez2004.com/portal/index.php?module=article&view=41

[Doomsayer13]

8. this is good

expect it to tighten though, Republicans have a natural advantage due to the demographic of the state. Since its a presidential year, Tannenbaum will have a tougher time with her opponent becuase of coatails. That is, unless there is an anti-coattail effect, in which she could coast to victory. Any other scenario puts it at tossup, but she'll need a strong independent showing for her.

[TSIAS]

9. Florida

I have to give us a decent shot at retaining that seat. The Democratic race is still wide open, but Castor has to be a slight favorite at the moment. My initial instinct is to say that she'll have the most state wide appeal.

It would be interesting if there was a matchup between the two Cuban Americans, Penelas and Martinez. I wonder which way the vote would go? Penelas seemed like a more conservative Democrat when he was Mayor of Miami-Dade. A lot of people nationally probably remember him from the Elian Gonzalez affair.

I definitely want McCollum to be the opponent. Byrd or Klayman would be great, but that might be wishing for too much. Bob Smith, formerly of New Hampshire, is running in the GOP primary as well.

[derekoja]

10. Plenty of action in Georgia Senate Race

Gary Leshaw launched a new website this week, and is taking on Zell Miller with speeches petitions--check out this one to tell Zell he doesn't speak for Democrats!

[Freddie Stubbs]

11. Hoeffel would definitley have the advantage over Toomey, but

Specter would blow him out of the water. Specter is probably PA's toughest, hardest working politician. He is only vulnrable in the primary because he is a moderate rather than a conservative. He visits each of the states 67 counties every year and is an expert in steering federal dollars to the state's communities.

Hoeffel would be a strong challenger against Rick Santorum, who is up for reelection in 2006.

[Wabbajack]

12. Specter barley wins in Presidential years

In 1992 he got less than 50% against a much weaker opponent than Hoefell.

[NewJerseyDem]

13. That was because of Anita Hill

A lot of people weren't happy about his hard questioning of Anita Hill in 1991 so there was some backlash from his usual strong supporters of moderates in the Philly suburbs. People have raised the issue of his weakness in presidential years but that was just in his first run in 1980 and the anti-incumbent year of 1992.