Huge Surge of Registration for Obama

[babylonsister]

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/4/20/173938/448

Huge Surge of Registration for Obama

by BooMan
Sun Apr 20th, 2008 at 05:39:38 PM EST


If you look at a map of the Democratic voter registration surge (by zip code) in the five county Philadelphia region, an important pattern emerges. It will help if you know the region and the city. In Philly, registration is through the roof in University City and the rest of West Philly. This is Obama's strongest area (District 2, Chaka Fattah) in the state. Registration is also extremely high in the North (the blackest area of Philly) and in the Center City, Society Hill, Queens Village area (District 2, Bob Brady) that is socially liberal and filled with urban professionals and artists (the Creative Class). By contrast, registration is low in the Northeast, Fishtown, and deep South Philly (white ethnics, most opposed to Obama).

The same pattern holds in Bucks County, where heavily black Morrisville saw a huge spike, in Montgomery County, where heavily black Norristown and Conshohocken saw a huge spike, in Delaware County, where heavily black Chester and Darby saw a huge spike, and Chester Country, where heavily black Coatsville and West Chester saw a huge spike. Overall, the heaviest registration has come from college towns/areas, black neighborhoods, and the Creative Class neighborhoods of Philadelphia.

This portends a very high differential turnout of Obama voters to Clinton voters in the five county area. It also portends an historically unprecedented differential turnout of the black/creative class vote over the white ethnic vote.

I'm not a polling expert, but I do know that pollsters are not free just to pull turnout models out of thin air. If the percentage of the Democratic vote that was black in 2004-2006 was say 17%, the pollsters are not going to postulate that it will be 25% this year. Likewise, if the Philly region represented say 33% of the statewide vote in recent election, then the pollsters will not stray too far from that precedent.

If you are polling the whole state using just 700-1000 voters, you have to get the regional turnout numbers right, you have to get the differential race, age, and gender numbers right. If you don't, your poll is going to be off.

On the eve of the South Carolina primary the polls predicted the following result:

Obama: 43.1%
Clinton: 28.5%
Edwards: 17.0%

The actual result?

Obama: 55%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 18.0%

Two out of three ain't bad. They nailed the vote for Clinton and Edwards, but they dramatically underestimated Obama's vote. Looking at the voter registration numbers in the Philly area, I think there is a real chance that the pollsters are about to be proven wrong about this race.

Here is one sign that backs up my suspicions.

A recent Keystone Poll of Pennsylvania voters, conducted by Franklin and Marshall College, found that 62 percent of Democrats who registered statewide within the last three months planned to vote for Obama.

They might be weighting their polls using anachronistic turnout models. If so, look for Obama to dramatically outperform the polls, just as he did in South Carolina.

[williesgirl]

1. Thanks. I'd love to see him beat her in PA and maybe, push her out of the race. Maybe the SDs will

start endorsing BO, which should start a domino effect. We need to save our campaign dollars and arguments to beat McSame in Nov. rec'd

[Citizen_Penn]

4. Agreed, but you know what

whatever it takes.

I'm so in on this one - I'll keep sending $$$ until the election law says I can't anymore.

I've never ever felt this way about a candidate.

For the first time,I see visible evidence that a candidate has actually READ the constitution.

[MBS]

2. I find myself cautiously hopeful that he's going to do better than

the Talking Heads predict. Comeo on , PA: please step up to the plate!

[KaryninMiami]

3. We need to be CLOSELY following the EXIT POLLS on the 22nd.

I am deeply concerned about the touch screen (DRE's) machines that most of PA is voting on. If the election day exit polls are very different then the actual results, we'll all need to be on our ties and ready to demand an investigation.

I still believe something odd happenen in New Hampshire-- and I have little trust for the Clinton machine - or the GOP who want to make sure that their choice of candidate (HRC) gets the nomination.

[Voice for Peace]

5. the SUSPENSE!

[MindMatter]

6. FWIW, weather report looks good for Tuesday

See http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USPA1276?from=36hr_topnav_undeclared

This should help turnout.

[goclark]

7. Let the sun shine on PA

[mackdaddy]

8. Maybe this is an ESCALATION and not just a Surge?

Now, Where have I heard that before?