New Zogby poll shows Gephardt the only one who can beat Bush.

[JeniB]

Zogby poll shows Gephardt would challenge Bush for president
A new Zogby International Poll shows that U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Third District) would be the toughest candidate for President George W. Bush to face in the 2004 election.
While the poll showed that 52 percent of respondents had a positive rating of Bush's performance, it showed that Gephardt has a six-point lead over Bush, and is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters.
Forty-eight percent of voters said they want someone new as president, while 45 percent said Bush should be re-elected.
The survey polled 1,011 likely voters between September 2002 and August 2003.
In addition to being a columnist for the St. Louis Business Journal, John Zogby is president and CEO of Zogby International, an independent polling and opinion research firm. He has polled business, consumer and political trends for Reuters and NBC News, among a wide-ranging client list.
- source (St. Louis Business Journal)

[bahrbearian]

1. Give me a break

Is he going to wear his Pink Tutu?
P.S. why is your Avatar image disabled.

[JeniB]

6. That was a really thoughtful reply.

:eyes:

[bahrbearian]

10. He may as while be the V.P.

he's given Chimpy every thing he's wanted. Such he becomes a Pink Tutu wearing Democrate. Think about it!

[XanaDUer]

11. What's a pink tutu Democrat?

n/t.

[bahrbearian]

14. There are many.

Most have staged themself's next to Chimpy in Photo OP's during the rush to war, giving * the mandate for war. Check out Bartcop.com

[TheYellowDog]

92. Ok

Troll out..... with the top down.

[JeniB]

19. I'm assuming..

that P.S. is a joke. Ha Ha very funny

[bahrbearian]

33. Actually

your avatar image didn't come up till my Third Post.

[Nicholas_J]

93. Same pollster put Dean in first place

Are they going to do a Pas-a-deux?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Hmmm.

is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters

Too bad only 20% of the electorate is considered independent.

[JeniB]

21. I don't know about where you live,

But here in NH a candidate can win or lose based on the Independent vote!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

29. Understood.

Point taken.

[Nazgul35]

46. must be why Gephardt is polling so well

in NH....

[DemVet]

97. True, and actually...

....the ENTIRE election will be decided by swing voters and independents. Carville-ism: The winner is the one that takes a share of the other guys voters (to that effect, anyway).

[Rhiannon12866]

98. Thanks for the information

and welcome to DU, DemVet!:toast:

BTW, I like your avatar.:D

[chimpymustgo]

47. One third of the electorate is "independent".

One third democratic, one third rethug.

[Maple]

3. Who?

.

[kmla]

4. Yeah, and at this point in 1991, Bill Clinton hadn't even declared his

presidential aspirations. This poll was wasted money.

And besides, my Mom advised me to never vote for someone who had no eyebrows...

:eyes:

[LiberalFighter]

108. Who? Gephardt?

Well he does have eyebrows but they are sooooo hard to see since they blend in with his face. Maybe he should get a dye job.

[scarface2004]

5. zogby....

is a major league asshole!

[Jim Sagle]

7. Haw haw haw!

[JeniB]

8. It's funny

that these Zogby polls are good until you get one you don't like. You guys better brace yourself - Gephardt isn't going away this time.

[XanaDUer]

13. Gephardt is holding back on his campaigning

until the last few months, probably. Most labor unions support him, if not all, I think.

I assume from the context a "pink tutu" democrat is something bad, but you don't endorsements from blue-collar unions by being bad.

[Rhiannon12866]

88. Yes, the unions are solidly behind Gephardt

He has the endorsement of the Teamsters (his dad was a Teamster), the Sheetmetal Workers and is expected to pick up many of the smaller ones as well as the AFL-CIO. Those are a lot of votes. I wouldn't count him out.

I agree with you. I don't know what this term means either, but the unions are Middle America, which all the candidates are campaigning for. This is the first time that the Teamsters have endorsed a Democratic candidate since 1988.

[blm]

15. Good luck...

most of the "fair and balanced" posters here want everyone out of the race so the corporate media darling Dean gets to stay on his ride.

[JeniB]

17. I agree.

It amazes me that I'm supposed to get tickled every time something looks good for Dean, but let something go right for someone else and they get twisted panties!

[LeftCoast]

20. BLM - I've seen you make the "media darling" charge against Dean

several times. I have to say, I think you are totally off-base here. In virtually all the media coverage of Dean he is portrayed as raving left-wing peacenik with all white supporters.

The only media darling I know of is Bush, who for the most part is given a big "PASS" by the media.

Support Dean or not...I truly don't care, but don't just spout spin. You're a good DU'er, I really expect more from you...

[blm]

28. Then you miss the point.

Dean BENEFITTED from being called a liberal antiwar candidate when he was NEITHER.

That's why he was so reticent about his centrism earlier this year. The $$$ support he was getting from the left for his media portrayal lifted his campaign. HE was the one who called others who were more liberal than he, "Bushlite." HE was the one who said that HE represented the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party, implying that he was to the left of the others. Uh...where is anyone supposed to go to the left of Kerry and Kucinich? Ultraliberal? Dean wanted to benefit from that when it helped his campaign, and now he's back to remembering he's a centrist after all.

[dsc]

49. You are telling stories you like

and not the truth when you accuse him of being reticent about being a centrist. I did see his early appearences and he said then what he says now. That he is a centrist. Aside from putting a scarlet C on his coat he couldn't have been more clear. But I know the stories you like are way, way, more fun.

[blm]

50. Too bad for you they are true.

Guess you forgot all those here at DU who argued for months that Dean was a liberal. They also worried in scores of threads whether or not Dean was TOO liberal to win. I always tried to assure them that Dean was nowhere too liberal to win, and that, in fact, he was a centrist. If he hadn't been so reticent, then more people would have acknowledged his centrism here. Keeping it accurate.

btw...didn't you see ANY article where some reporter went to Vermont only to discover that Dean was NOT the liberal they first expected? There have been a few linked here. I'm surprised you never saw them or you've forgotten them.

[dsc]

54. It isn't Dean's fault people didn't listen to him

Dean has stated his position on guns (to site one example) very clearly. Yet just a few days ago there was an article here stating that people who vote on just that issue were just now figuring out his position. Yes there are some people who are uninformed. But Dean clearly stated that he was a centrist. He clearly gave numerous examples of his centrism. The fact that some people didn't listen isn't his fault. Just like the fact you tell stories you like isn't Kerry's fault.

[Nicholas_J]

80. If Dean makes hisstance so clear

Why is it that SO many people are confused on his stances.

Dean has shifted his positions so many times, dependant on whi he is speaking to that when there are more national debates between Dean and the other candidates in the fdall, his lack of having any real position will become transparant, as will the candidate.

Ther is not one issue Dean has not continually changes his stance on, and going to Dean for America does not clarify it any more. Again, the best source for information on Dean is the Rutland Herald, the TImes Argus, and the Burlington Free Press for the years he was governor.

Like the intersting fact that for 7 out of 10 years as governor, the number of people with health insurance in Vermont dropped from 92.8 percent covered in 1993, to 91.4 percent in 2001. Under Dean, many people who had coverage under medicaid lost it, or had reduced benefits, Dean is credited not for iincreasing health care, but for simply shifting who benefited from poor, handicapped and the elderly, to the children of relatively well off families.


During the first two years of Deans administration, before he had instituted his fiscal ideas, the rate climbed, as a result of higher revenues available from Richard Snellings temporary increases in income taxes. Every year after Dean rolled back those taxes and started giving income tax cuts, he began cutting programs to the poor, elderly, blind and handicapped(not as much as he desired as the legislature actively thwarted his attempts), and every year thereafter, fewer and fewer people had coverage.

[dsc]

84. Of course

nothing to back up your ridiculous charges and not one word on the example I cited. Typical, sad but typical.

[Mass_Liberal]

94. why is it that every single goddamn thread

turns into an attack on someone. Can't we all get along? ANYBODY REMEMBER THIS :dem:


damn....

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

22. Corporate media darling?

Who was written off as a joke candidate early on. Dean/DK/AS/CMB
Who was declared the prima facie frontrunner early on. Kerry/JL/JE/DG.

It's only when your candidate is not getting the attention that the media becomes corporate whores. When your candidate was getting the attention, he deserved it and the press was only being honest.:eyes:


The dissembling is amazing.

[blm]

31. The media never made Kerry a darling.

They took plenty of shots at him while boosting Dean these last 7 months. Many times they ignored him altogether.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

58. My dear,

Kerry can appear on any of the cable networks, anytime he wants. McCain does it all the time. Not to mention that I've seen him many times over the last month on a variety of Networks. I don't know what to say to you anymore, it's not a conspiracy. If Kerry has what it takes, he'll be fine. Methinks that it would be important that what he says is "newsworthy." Just campaigning isn't newsworthy. How many people attend. What is said. How are you polling.

If Kerry ever whips out the Bushwhackertm, I'll be right there rooting him on. He's got time. I might suggest that you look more to how his campaign is being run than theories on why the world is against him. :shrug: Good luck.(and say "Hi" to the little kipper for me)

RiF

[blm]

76. little kipper?

who dat?

Kerry speaking as the ONLY candidate invited to the VFW convention is NOT newsworthy. Kerry exposing Bush's broken promises to the vets and his poor military strategy in Iraq is NOT newsworthy. Kerry getting greater applause than Bushies Rummy and Condi is NOT newsworthy.

OK...gotcha.

btw... Do you work at CNN?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

86. Didn't you have a child recently?

That's the "kipper."

Yes, those are all noteworthy. And when he his giving similar speeches in front of thousands, it'll get covered.


Say "Hi" to the kipper for me.

[VermontDem2004]

78. 7 months!!?!?! You have to be kidding.

First off, they never boosted Dean's campaign, they are busy whoring for the Bushes. THE REASON Dean is getting this attention because he is rising in the polls, he is ahead in NH, Iowa, and raised more $$ then any other candidate in the second quater. In fact, after he was #1 in the money contributions of the second quarter, that is when the media attention came. He was on tv a few times before then, but so where the other candidates, he is surprising alot of people by the progress he is making, thus media coverage. I assure you, if Sharpton was raising more $$ and rising in the polls, he would be getting media coverage.

[LuminousX]

96. Yep

So Dean should attempt to correct this somehow and find a way to give Kerry equal treatment in the press.

Everytime the media states something good about Dean, Dean should rush out and say "But Kerry is doing good stuff, too."

[AWD]

44. Sure he will

I can guarantee Gephardt will go away.

All we have to do is tell him that the campaign is actually a vote in Congress, and he'll disappear 85% of the time!

[JeniB]

67. Oh I get it now!!!

You're running for congress and are hoping to ride on Dean's coatstrings! Is that where all of this anger is coming from? Oh yea, the anger thing works!!!! You made me angry. If I lived where you do, I wouldn't vote for you. That's how angry you make me. I think you better ask Deano for instructions on how to do that right.

[AWD]

68. Wow.....

...such hostility.

And all because I called you on a misleading headline.

Nice to know that you'd vote for a Repuke because somebody didn't agree with you on something. I'm sure you're a very dedicated Dem.

[JeniB]

71. It's not because you called me on a misleading headline

It's because you still hammered me after I told you I just copied it. In fact you called me a liar. I don't think anyone has ever made me as mad on DU as you did today and I know part of it is that you are always abrasive to people who are not Dean fans. I've run into you before.
Excuse me for letting my anger get the best of me. If I knew you under different circumstances, I might like you.

[AWD]

72. Right back at you

There's a lot of anger being thrust around lately...hopefully not so much that we have problems coming together after the primaries have selected one candidate to get behind.

My apologies to you.

[AWD]

73. Right back at you

There's a lot of anger being thrust around lately...hopefully not so much that we have problems coming together after the primaries have selected one candidate to get behind.

My apologies to you.

[Andromeda]

91. Bwahahahahahaha...

:bounce:

[AntiCoup2K4]

75. He SHOULD go away...

..because he's been a spineless coward ever since the Coup that destroyed American Democracy 2 1/2 years ago.

Dick Gephardt has been one of the best friends the Bush Criminal Empire could have. He only comes in second to Holy Joe (among those running) because NOW that he's campaigning, he's not so enthusiastic about supporting the Fraudministration's agenda.

Sorry. We can't beat these fascists with someone who has been kissing their ass all along.

[crissy71]

87. Scuse me folks but

Shouldn't we be HAPPY that a Dem candidate is polling ahead of Chimpy? I don't care if they're "black dog-collar" candidates as long as they keep pounding away at the BFEE (which, happily, now that it's campaign season, they're all doing)

btw, how are other Dems doing in the poll?

[papau]

9. This is the bio poll - no names attached to preference?

link?

[JeniB]

16. Here's the link

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=5603

[Jivenwail]

12. This is a joke, yes????

[JeniB]

18. No, sorry!

This is the future!

[dfong63]

23. not a joke, an obscenity

follow that link...

The survey polled 1,011 likely voters between September 2002 and August 2003.

huh??? they are combining polling results from a year ago, with current polling results?????? like nothing's changed in the past year???????????? the war, the WMD lies, the emergence of Dean...

i dunno where this Zogby guy learned how to take polls, but this strikes me as completely invalid.

it's not a joke, it's an obscenity.

[Cocoa]

82. Zogby does things differently

I've heard of other techniques of his that didn't sound "correct" as I learned statistics in college. But he seems to have a good record for getting it right.

[dfong63]

24. poll doesn't say that

the poll does not show that Gephardt is "the only one" who can beat Bush. at most, it suggests that Gephardt would have a fair chance. it's interesting how the article does not give any numbers for the other candidates, to back up its interpretation that Gephardt would be "the toughest".

it's even more interesting how the poll surveyed likely voters
BETWEEN SEPTEMBER 2002 and August 2003. as if survey answers given a year ago have any relevance today.

[JeniB]

25. I have the numbers.

Here they are: If you look at the bottom this shows the changing poll between Sept. 2002 and Aug 2003. The new numbers are the ones with actual candidates.

Conducted 8/16-19 by Zogby Int'l; surveyed 1,019 likely voters; margin of error +/- 3%. Subsample: 584 likely Dem primary voters; margin of error +/- 4% (release, 8/25).

WH '04 General Election Matchups

All Dem GOP Ind
Bush 49% 16% 90% 41%
Gephardt 43 77 7 42

All Dem GOP Ind
Bush 48% 16% 87% 44%
Lieberman 43 76 11 38

All Dem GOP Ind
Bush 50% 16% 90% 46%
Kerry 41 74 6 37

All Dem GOP Ind
Bush 50% 16% 90% 45%
Dean 40 73 6 36

All Dem GOP Ind
Bush 49% 16% 91% 40%
Clark 37 71 5 32

Date Re-Elect % Someone New %
August 16-19, 2003 45 48
July 16-17, 2003 46 47
June 10, 2003 49 38
January 27, 2003 49 41
October 25, 2002 49 35
September 25, 2002 49 38

edit:I tried to fix the column heading but I just couldn't do it. Just move over the column headings to the top of the four groups of numbers.

[JeniB]

26. Gephardt is the only one who came out on top of Bush

in any of the categories and it was only in the Independent voters. See numbers in post below.

Edit: OK in the post above - # 25

[BrewCrew]

27. He's a Great Candidate!

OK. Gephardt may not win. I understand that, but why when someone posts something positive about one of our candidates does so many folks jump in to fade and flame the post? Its geting old and causing a lot of good democrats to quit posting on DU. Seriously, we've lost a lot of good posters in the last few months. I hear and fully understand the attacks on Dick Gephardt, but the guy has spend mots of his career fighting hard for me and my fellow UAW members. Through those fights, I believe I've learned a lot about Dick Gephardt and I can say the guy is a "true fighting for the concerns of labor and working families." He's bascially been a working families champion and that fact will make him an excellent candidate against that rich people tax cuttin slobb-knocker GW Bush.

I will not turn my back on Dick Gephardt, becuase he hasn't turned his backs on us. Things like NAFTA, China PNTR, Foreign Steel and Fast Track have all but devastated a lot of communities and areas throughout the industrial belt of this country. Its crazy sad. Me and my co-workers know Dick Gephardt's record and we know he'll be there for us when unfair agreements come to his desk. What we need are fair trade agreements that include labor and environmental protections like the Jordan Trade Pact. Heck that trade agreement was so fair that even many unions, Dennis Kucinich and Sherrod Brown backed it. Dick Gephardt basically wrote that agreement. The guy knows a good trade deal from a bad one! Under his administrations we'll only pass agreements like the Jordan one. Dick Gephardt is a great candidate. He has a populist message that plays well with union members and working families in these areas (thats why 12 unions have endorsed the guy) and I remind you that these are areas we will need to win in 2004 like Missouri, Illinois, West Virgina, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA and the rest of the Industrial Heartland.

Also maybe he does so well against W because people are beginning to realize that WaPost article about him was right. As it says, "Gephardt is offering voters the starkest alternative to Bush among the candidates leading in the polls"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28839-2003Aug21.html

Other choice quotes from the article:
"Gephardt talks proudly of repealing tax cuts, slapping restrictions on foreign trade and providing universal health coverage. He sounds more like Lyndon B. Johnson or Harry S. Truman."
"No major Democratic presidential candidate is promising to change the country more dramatically than Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.)...


Oh well. I've said my peace. Now 100 folks will just fade my heart-written post. When did fellow Democrats become so friggin' mean?

[jos]

32. I hear you

I think Gephardt has gotten a bit of a raw deal here on DU. And I'm as critical of him as anyone. His role in the war resolution last year, followed by the election failure, has blinded a lot of people to the positive aspects of his record.

I think he is a good, ableit at times inconsistent, Democrat. While I'm not supporting him for the nomination, I would have no problem voting for him should he be the nominee. He may be a more effective challenger to Bush than a lot of people give him credit for. Plus he's on good terms with Dean, so the two of them on the same ticket is a distinct possibility.

[gottaB]

77. The meat and potatoes case for Gephardt.

That's the kind of post I like reading. Don't let the detractors get you down.

:toast:

[kalash477]

103. i dont want to be mean, but...

the gist of the article was: Gephardt can't win. He will ruin the economy with massive unfunded programs sending this country into deficits worse than the current ones. The article basically said he is promising the moon. He may be a nice guy but he has policies that will not work and dont appeal to the makority of americans.

[dfong63]

34. something's wrong here

While the poll showed that 52 percent of respondents had a positive rating of Bush's performance, it showed that Gephardt has a six-point lead over Bush, and is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters.

the numbers you posted do not support the above claim.

the numbers you posted show Bush supposedly leading all the dems, including Gephardt. the difference between Gephardt, Kerry, and Dean, is within the poll's +-4% MoE.

[cprise]

56. and dean is still gaining

...where the others are pretty much fully exposed already.

Dean is starting from relative obscurity. The more people become acquainted with Dean, the better he does in the polls.

[BayCityProgressive]

35. This is funny

Whenever something about Dean comes out it is trumpeted to the heavens! When a poll is shown that says Gephardt would beat Bush and Dean would lose, everyone flips out. The truth of the matter is besides the war Gephardt is MORE liberal than Dean on almost EVERYTHING and is doing better with independants...yet people here are backing a conservative who is agaisnt the war..big deal some republicans were against the war too; are you going to vote for them as well? I am very anti-war but it happened and the majority approved of the invasion.They don't approve of the aftermath. It amazes me that people will refuse to back a liberal who polls better than Bush in favor of a conservative who would lose to him. The power of propaganda. These are early polls and given to change of course, but labor is going to flood the polls for Gephardt. People compare Dean to Truman which is a joke. Gephardt grew up lower middle class and is a huge labor supporter as Truman was. I think that is a much better comparison.

[valphoosier]

30. Wow...

I sense some disdain for Gephardt? It is very early, but Zogby is a respected pollster and these results should be respected.

Besides, recently, Gephardt has been tougher on Bush than just about any of the Dem's running. Saying he's pandering to Bush is ridiculous. I think this is good news for Gephardt but, moreso, it's good news for democrats in general because (for the first time that I can remember) a poll has a named democrat beating GWB.

[dfong63]

36. the numbers don't say that

I think this is good news for Gephardt but, moreso, it's good news for democrats in general because (for the first time that I can remember) a poll has a named democrat beating GWB.

the numbers posted by JeniB in post #25, show Bush ahead of all the named dems. either the numbers are wrong, or the article is wrong. the article says, ``While the poll showed that 52 percent of respondents had a positive rating of Bush's performance, it showed that Gephardt has a six-point lead over Bush, and is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters.''

reformatted data from post #25.

         All Dem GOP Ind
Bush     49% 16% 90% 41%
Gephardt 43  77   7  42

[renie408]

37. Really?

How weird. I didn't know that Gephardt was doing that well. It seems like all I hear about these days are Dean and Kerry.

[BayCityProgressive]

38. Dean?

Well of course. Dean is infallible didn't you hear?:)

[dfong63]

51. look at the numbers in post #25

I didn't know that Gephardt was doing that well.

maybe he's not doing that well. according to the actual numbers posted by JeniB in post #25, Gep is behind Bush, just like the others. the difference is within the poll's +-4% MoE. the numbers certainly do not show that Gep is the "only" one who can beat Bush.

[dsc]

39. This says that

Gephardt is leading today. Which is good news for him. But that is all it says. Given Bush's numbers now the election will most likely be about him and not so much our candidate. You have a right to be happy and savor it but don't go overboard.

[dfong63]

40. where did you get those numbers in post #25?

those numbers clearly do not support the contention that Gephardt has a 6-point lead over Bush. in fact they show the opposite.

by the way, you can make the columns line up if you surround your table with [pre] and [/pre].

[Rowdyboy]

41. Fascinating....

Thanks for the link...I make it my policy not to bash any of the Democratic candidates because history has shown me I might have to eat those words after the convention.

[AWD]

42. Misleading, aren't you???

Funny how your headline says "New Zogby poll shows Gephardt the only one who can beat Bush"

But the article reads "..and is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters]/b]"

Pretty bad that you have to spin it, isn't it????

[dfong63]

53. you said it

But the article reads "..and is the only Democrat who would beat Bush among independent voters

and (according to the numbers in post #25), Gep is "leading" Bush in that category by a stunning 1% margin.

while trailing Bush (not leading) by 6% overall. something's wrong here - either the numbers are wrong, or the article is wrong.

[JeniB]

59. It looks like the headline of the article was misstated.

I didn't write that, I just copied it. While that's not true, he does come out 1% better than Bush with Independents which is better than any of the other candidates did in any of the categories. For those who pointed out the margin of error, I reiterate that he did better than anyone else. It may be a small lead and obviously very early, but I'll take what I can get. I'm so sick of hearing people say that Gephardt will go nowhere that I just had to crow about this. I think he'll come out stronger as time goes by. it's way to early to know who will win, but i'm backing my guy til the end. I'll obviously support whoever gets the nomination.

[AWD]

64. Again, you spin......

...the headline says no such thing.

First, you gave no link, just a source. Then when a link was finally provided, the headline says "Zogby poll shows Gephardt would challenge Bush for president".

You claim you just coipied it, then how did it get to "New Zogby poll shows Gephardt the only one who can beat Bush"???

Please stop spinning...especially when it's SO easy to check up on your "facts".

[JeniB]

61. You know, I really don't care what you have to say!

I wouldn't expect anything but that answer from you. You are one of the posters who are so immoveable that it makes no difference what you say, it always comes out the same.

I didn't write the headline, I copied it!!!! There was no spin involved, just a mistake by whomever wrote the article. Probably not even a Gephardt supporter.

[AWD]

65. You don't have to care what I say

...but when you spin, I'm going to call you on it.

I'm not going to let people in Congress get away with it, and I won't let anybody else get away with it either.

Yes, I am moveable in my stances. I can be swayed with a good argument......but not by lies and spin.

[Old and In the Way]

43. If Gephardt wins the nomination, I will support him gladly!

I like his positions on healthcare and energy.

Unfortunately, I don't think he has the fire to really capture the masses...he's too lowkeyed, IMHO.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

48. I disagree with his war stance but...

he has an A Grade domestic agenda that I will PROUDLY support!!!

[indigo32]

45. I like Gep

he's my number 2 choice without a doubt.

[DrFunkenstein]

52. Grandpa Joe Lieberman Looks Good In That Poll

<>

Fight the power, Grandpa Joe!

<>

[mandyky]

55. It'll be a moot point if he loses in Iowa

and comes in less than second in NH. He can't beat Chimpy if he does win the nomination. Gephardt does have Union support which may help, but it is not showing up in the national polls yet, between Dem candidates.

[JeniB]

60. He does have to win Iowa,

but he only needs third in NH. The next ones after that he'll do well and that will do it.

[jos]

62. Agree

Third or even fourth in New Hampshire won't harm him, but not winning Iowa will just about knock him out of the box.

[Thomas Jefferson]

57. The Dean people were bragging about the Zogby poll today.

Maybe they better switch if they believe so much in polls.

[poskonig]

63. I actually agree with this.

Gephardt looks the best electorally, and is moderate enough on issues to be a competitive candidate.

This doesn't mean that Gephardt can inspire, organize, and turnout people, raise oodles of money, do the meat and potatoes campaign work, et cetera. Gephardt's problems in this primary can be expressed in two words:

Rose Garden.

[dfong63]

66. another two words

Gephardt's problems in this primary can be expressed in two words: Rose Garden.

another two words that could sink Gephardt: "attendance record". as AWD already pointed out, Gephardt has missed 85% of recent house votes. there's simply no excuse for that. i wonder what numbers Zogby would have come up with if the pollsters had mentioned that little tidbit.

[DrFunkenstein]

69. Polls Are Things I Like To Slide On

Often.:o :o :o :D

[JohnKleeb]

70. good luck to Gebby, I respect the man

Guys he isnt a tutu wearer, hes what we need economically, a populist, now I prefer Kucinich yes, but I think Gephardt is at heart a good man, who wants the best. at least he isnt acting like Lieberman is, and thy word is arrogant about challengers. I can see him even if he doesnt win as a labor secretary, he would be my 2nd pick after an unnamed union leader.

[ISUGRADIA]

74. Polls only mean so much at this time

Gephardt is in the competition and these numbers may help him a bit but they certainly don't show he is the ONLY candidate who can beat Bush. Part of it this early is name recognition, he was the Dem Minority Leader for eight years.

[cjbuchanan]

79. I have to agree

Until there is a nominee, national polls mean very little.

Once the nomination fight is over, the winner will have near 100% name recognition and will be able to put forth her or his agenda. This will let Americans decide whom they want.

Don't get me wrong; Gephardt should put this out there to help his campaign, but what it actually means is very little.

Just my thoughts.

[Parche]

81. and Lieberman for VP

That would be a hell of a great ticket
Gephardt and Lieberman


A great ticket for smirk the bush
If you want Bush to win, vote for Lieberman or Gephardt



If you want your country back
vote for

KERRY/CLARK/DEAN

[Cocoa]

83. this is good news for Gep

electability is one of the things I think people who otherwise support Gep are worried about, myself included.

I read comments by a union president, it might have been the SEIU, who said that his union members prefer Gep, but that beating Bush was the most important thing, and they were taking that into consideration when deciding whether to back him.

[valniel]

85. Is there a link

to the most recent Zogby poll showing Bush v. Individual Dems?

A six-point Gephardt lead over Bush is amazing, like out of the ball park.

[Rhiannon12866]

89. There was a thread, on DU.1, I think that was titled

``Gephardt hits one out of the park.'' This can be only good news for Democrats. I have been watching Gephardt in the Democratic candidates forums and have liked what I've seen. He seems to have found his political voice and the passion to really give his all to this campaign. If he can evict the ``squatter-in-chief'' from the White House, he sure has my vote!:-)

[TheYellowDog]

90. Link?

I'd like to see one if you have it, thanks.

[Rhiannon12866]

95. This is the best I can do...

I don't know if things have changed from JeniB's original post, but I heard two different polls with completely differing results regarding the Democratic presidential candidates during the course of Hardball just last night!:crazy:

http://www.zogby.com/

[Rhiannon12866]

99. WOW! That was a shock!

I checked back to see if the poster who asked for the Zogby link had ever noticed I had provided one and I find he is tombstoned! This must have happened elsewhere because I saw nothing inappropriate here. I am always the last to pick up on these things!:shrug:

[Evanstondem]

100. Since you seem to be responding to other replies

Can you please explain what you like about Gephardt.

I hope that your post is tongue in cheek. Candidates who are known from prior campaigns -- read Gephardt and Lieberman tend to fare relatively well in these early polls. As for Zogby, I believe that his poll results are more erratic than most, and the one you cite seems out of line with others that don't show Gephardt doing better than other leading Dems vs. Bush. I'm still laughing about his last pre-election poll in Illinois that showed Jim Ryan leading Rob Blagojevich in the Illinois Governor's race. His last NH poll with the huge Dean surge was also dubious.

[JeniB]

101. I'm surprised to see this thread back again.

I like Gephardt because he is the most sincere, caring candidate that I have talked to. I believe he has the ability to make it all the way through. Once we get past Iowa and NH, he'll get more electoral votes than any of the others. He does have to come in first in Iowa and 3rd or 4th in NH but after that it's clear sailing. He's a clear winner against Bush and I believe that after the other 9 are gone, Dems will be seeing what I'm seeing in him. I've talked to a few of the candidates since I live in NH and am very active in politics here. Dean spent his time with me trying to backtrack on his first statements to me. This was after I let him know that I lived in Vermont before he was Governor. He was taking credit for creating some programs that were there before he was. Turns out, he just changed the names. Gephardt really cares what happens to this country. he really cares what happens to the poor and even though he voted for the war, he really had all the best intentions. He was blindsided by Bush who had made a deal with him and didn't stick to it. The bottom line though is that you can't go to Washington with your guns blazing, especially when the Republicans are in power in Congress. You must be a diplomat and you must know how to work the system. Gep knows what he can pass and how to do it. He will do his very best to work with Comgress including the Repubs because that's what the Pres has to do. You can't go in and say"I'm the President and this is how it's going to be". It just doesn't work that way. I believe Dick Gephardt is the best guy for us to send there and get the most bang for our buck.

[JeniB]

102. Oh yea, I forgot.

Polls really mean nothing at this point. Most of the people in the country have not even decided who they're going to vote for. It's fun to look at them and it's a tool to use if your guy wins any of them at any time, but they will change wildly before the elections. Having said that, people don't seem to notice that Gep has consistently been at the top on most national polls. He IS a contender!

[IndianaGreen]

104. Unfortunately for Gep, the rank and file does not feel the same

as independents do about him. Should we mention his "miserable failure" as Democratic leader in the House? How about his appearance in the Rose Garden endorsing Bush's invasion of Iraq?

Gep will never get my vote, and neither will the other 3 warmongering candidates!

[JeniB]

106. Gep is not a warmonger.

I am saying this in the calmest of manners, so I hope you'll listen that way. Yes, he voted for the war. He did not, however, start the action that got them voting on war in Iraq. When given the task of voting on it though, he went to the CIA, the FBI, he asked people in the know from the Clinton admin. and went back to the intellegence that was available on the subject. After 9/11 he wanted to make sure that no one was going to be in the position to give us more trouble. he decided that if there were WMD's he didn't want them used or sold to anyone that would use them. He knew, as we all know, that Saddam Hussein is a bad guy, so he voted for it. He wouldn't have gone in without the UN or NATO, but that call was made after he had to vote on it. He tried to and did get Bush to go to the UN. He did all he could do to make sure that it happened right. I don't think this would be as big an issue if we weren't there alone. We wouldn't have as many soldiers there and with the UN behind us, the Iraqi people would be more afraid of retailiating. I like him so much on so many issues that I am willing to give him this one. I think he tried to get it done right and he did everything he did trying to protect us, unlike Bush who went there for the oil.

[Rhiannon12866]

107. Thank you for posting accurate information about Gephardt

He was treated badly by Bush*, as have the rest of the American people and the world community. I know what you are saying is exactly the way it happened as I heard Gephardt say exactly this when he appeared last week on Hardball with Chris Matthews.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

105. Why does every poll seem to show a different Democrat doing better

against Bush? Many polls seem to show Lieberman doing the best against Bush, and there was one a few weeks ago that showed Kerry posing the biggest threat...it keeps changing, so I don't take these too seriously.

Still, it is good news that any of our candidates is shown having a good chance...a few months ago that was not the case

[Rhiannon12866]

109. I agree with you. Trying to follow these polls will drive you batty

When it comes down to it, we have to choose the candidate that will attract enough votes to defeat Bush*! Period.:grr: