Democrats shopping for a favorite

[Nicholas_J]

Dean has campaigned in this next-door state more than anyone else, and that groundwork paid off with growing crowds and surging poll numbers here that helped him become the fund-raising leader in the just-completed second quarter.

While Dean has won over many liberal voters, he will look to broaden that base in the fall, stressing his record as a governor who balanced budgets, often to the anger of union leaders and supporters of human-service programs.

But rivals wonder if this will peel support away from Dean once they realize he is not who they expected him to be on issues such as gun control and free trade...


Somebody is going to pop out of the pack to be the other alternative.''

Kerry also benefits the more intensely the war and national security looms as a defining issue in this primary.

For three terms Kerry devoted a great deal of time to it in the Senate, and he is a decorated Navy veteran of the Vietnam War.


http://www.nhprimary.com/stories/07-2003/071403-democratsshopping.htm

Though the University of New Hamshire poll has Kerry and Dean at a statistical dead heat Kerry's overall favorability rating is 70 percent, unfavirable 16 percent, 6 percent neutral 8 percent dont know. A net when adjusting for negative and positive of 54 percent.

Deans favorability is 58 percent, unfavorable 11 percent, 10 percent neutral, 20 percent dont know, for a net of 47 percent.


Deans earlier favorability rating with independents as compared to Kerry has now reveresed, with a statewide independent support for Dean at 13 percent and for Kerry at 27 percent.

Though this is of cold comfort. &1 percent of independents support Bush, 12 percent an un-named democrat 18 percent dont know.


age 18-34 supported Dean at 20 percent, Kerry at 9 percent

age 39 -49 support Dean at 13 percent Kerry at 15 percent

age 50 - 64 support Dean at 16 percent, Kerry at 20 percent

age 65 and over support Dean 15 percent, Kerry at 36 percent.

Its a 19 page document and breaks down the stats for each candidate in extremem detail.


http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/dem070703.pdf

[blm]

1. Very interesting numbers for the independent vote.

I think much of that independent McCain vote will end up in Kerry's column.

[dsc]

2. I will never cease to be amazed

at the flexability of your arguments. When polls showed Dean leading amoungst independents a few weeks ago it was evidence of a massive plot to freep the NH Primary. Now that this poll shows Kerry ahead it is instead a sign that Kerry is supported by the McCain vote. Simply amazing.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

3. Interesting numbers

The ones I find most interesting:

-- 11% of likely primary voters say they would vote for Bush rather than the Dem candidate?? And 3% of registered Dems (91 people) who considered themselves "liberal" would vote for Bush. This must just be one of those weird poll anomolies.

-- Older folks prefer Kerry, younger prefer Dean, in the middle (33-64), they are pretty close.

-- The wealthiest polled seem to prefer Kerry and Lieberman, while Dean has the edge in the $60-75K range.

-- Conservatives prefer Kerry to Dean (21% to 12%). Go figure.

-- Hillary Clinton is very popular in NH!

Kerry has a high favorability here, but Dean is also doing great. Good for him!