forecasting Friday's job gains around( 150,000 AP) (160,000 per Reuters)

[papau]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=668&ncid=749&e=6&u=/ap/20040830/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

Consumer Spending Up 0.8 Percent in July

By JEANNINE AVERSA, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - After taking a rest in June, the nation's consumers were full of energy last month, boosting their spending by 0.8 percent, a hopeful sign the economy may be emerging from a summer funk.

<snip>Americans' incomes, the fuel for future growth, however, nudged up by 0.1 percent in July, down from a 0.2 percent rise in the previous month. July's income growth fell short of some analysts' calls for a 0.5 percent gain. The 0.1 percent rise matched an increase for November 2002 and was the smallest advance since income growth was flat in August 2002.

The spending and income figures are not adjusted for price changes. <snip>

Analysts also are hoping the jobs climate will improve. The economy added just 32,000 positions in July, the weakest pace since December. The employment report for August will be released on Friday. Some economists are forecasting job gains around 150,000 (160,000 per Reuters) . <snip>

With consumer spending outpacing income growth in July, the personal savings rate — savings as a percentage of after-tax income — rose by 0.6 percent, down from a 1.3 percent rise in June. Economists say the savings rate doesn't provide a complete picture of household finances because it doesn't capture gains realized from such things as higher real-estate values or from financial investments.

1. It is said that JUST in order to absorb new workers...

150k a month are needed.

I don't really see why the number would be higher than last month. Various measures of producer inflation would seem to prohibit hiring more and more lately.

I am going to guess 64,000, because it is a nice round number.

Also--don't miss the following article. With the gap growing where housing is sucking up resources(or should I say, the mis-measured gap is growing), the next president has a hell of a problem to deal with.

This also means my recent article "Fannie Fires Back" was correct;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=114x11018

[tritsofme]

2. 90,000 is my new estimate

I've overshot it bigtime the past few months.