8/04 unemployment rate dropped to 5.4 -matching 5.4 percent Oct 2001

[papau]

Labor Department said the August unemployment rate dropped to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in July. It was the lowest rate since a matching 5.4 percent in October 2001

And this is good?

[Frodo]

1. Absent conversations that it's all made up? Yes, it's "good".

Just taking unemployment RATE... yes, 5.4% is quite good. Not "great". Well below the rates of most recent presidents, but not holding a candle to Clinton (who I believe left us at 4.7%).

[papau]

4. In the 70's Nixon sold "friction" as we grew - so expect 6% - so true I

would agree under those "rules"

But why we "need" more than 4% to keep wage inflation in check is beyond me.

But Then I am more or less retire from the battle!

:-)

[Frodo]

5. Used to be 6% was needed (supposedly) to avoid inflation

Proved THAT one wrong over the last decade.

[papau]

8. Unemployment Rate Aug decline due to 150000 giving up looking for job

Unemployment Rate Aug decline due to 150000 giving up looking for job and this is a good?



http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/03/business/03CND-JOBS.h...

U.S. Economy Added 144,000 Jobs in August
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

<snip>The total number of unemployed people remained almost unchanged in August, at eight million, the Labor Department said. The unemployment rate declined, but that was primarily because more than 150,000 dropped out of the labor force in August. Average hourly wages edged up 5 cents, to $15.77. The index of aggregate weekly hours of work crept up by .2 percent.<snip>

[Frodo]

10. tut tut...

"Dropped out of the labor force" does not equal "gave up looking for a job" unless you can show the corresponding jump in U4-U6.

:hi:

[papau]

11. Silly me - I gave up on consistency in the Household survey - and

forgot you still expect consistency!

At least we agree that there are times when they are the same!

Have a great weekend - I am off to play with grandkids -

I hope we will resume our optimist -Frodo / pessimist-papau discussions on Monday!

:party:

:toast:

:-)

[Lefty_the_Right]

2. It's total BS

There are far too many people that aren't looking for work anymore.

As soon as their unemployment runs out, they are no longer counted in this statistic.

It is very misleading, and repeating it as "good news" only helps the CEO's that are bleeding America of good paying jobs.

[tritsofme]

6. Unemployment benefits

and the unemployment rate are unrelated.

[Frodo]

7. Well, that's not ENTIRELY true...

They ARE spelled the same way. :hi:

[Czolgosz]

3. Of course a drop in the unemployment rate is good

Unfortunately, under Bush's jobless quasi-recovery, Bush has mangled the economy so that there is nowhere to go but up. We should all applaud the fact that the economy added jobs. But we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that we can do better. The job growth was less than economists were forecasting and this highlights the slow and uneven jobless quasi-recovery in the labor market. After losing so many jobs, any economist would expect ever faster job growth to make up for the lost employment opportunities. As it is, Bush's economy is bearly treading water. America can do better, and we will do better.

[papau]

9. Unemployment Rate Aug decline due to 150000 giving up looking for job

Unemployment Rate Aug decline due to 150000 giving up looking for job

:-(

[seasat]

12. Right now I'd consider an increase in unemployment good.

The unemployment rate usually jumps before a big turnaround in the job market. If time there is corresponding increase in the payroll survey, it generally means that the job situation has gotten so good enough that people that stopped searching for a job think the labor market is good enough to jump back in.

[seasat]

13. Really good post on unemployment on Brad Delong's Blog.

(LINK)

He discusses the discrepancy between the unemployment rate and payroll employment. Brad's conclusion is that something is seriously wrong with the recovery.

[papau]

14. Excellent link - thanks for posting it!

:-)

[Yavin4]

15. I Have A Theory On The Discrepancy Between The UE Rate and Payroll Numbers

It's called Temp Jobs. What's happening is that people are taking temp assignments. So, when you temp, you don't show up on the payroll rosters of the company that's using you, and you probably won't show up on the temp company's payroll because your assignment may be not be long enough for you to show up on their payroll.

Businesses don't have to hire anyone because they can get workers through temp agencies.