Some Economists See Risk of a Downturn

[papau]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-recession8sep08.story
Some Economists See Risk of a Downturn
The UCLA Anderson Forecast expects growth in '05 and '06 but says there's a 10% chance of a recession.
By Bill Sing
Times Staff Writer

September 8, 2004

The U.S. economy hasn't yet convincingly rebounded from the summer's soft patch, although some economists expect a pickup.

But could it get worse instead and even turn into a recession?

Relatively few economists are using the R-word outright. More and more, however, are beginning to warn that a downturn can't be dismissed.

The latest to issue such an alert is the widely watched UCLA Anderson Forecast. In its latest quarterly outlook, to be formally released this morning, the group calls a recession a "distinct possibility" in the next two years.<snip>

They are generally putting the odds of a recession at 25% to 33% in the next one or two years, he said.

And Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., research firm, said its recession indicator in August put the risk of a downturn at 32.7% in the next six months, up from 25.7% in July — and only 7.6% in March. A rise above 50% indicates a probable recession; the indicator last rose above 50% a few months before the 2001 slump, Economy.com chief economist Mark Zandi said.

The two main factors driving the higher recession risk are weaker financial market conditions — as shown by a sluggish stock market and falling bond-market interest rates — and declining consumer and business confidence, he said.<snip>

[hadrons]

1. "Some Economists See Risk of a Downturn" = their job on line now

[Dudley_DUright]

2. If shrub gets re-selected

it is a dead certainty.

[bemildred]

3. Sun may rise tomorrow. Still tinkering with our solar model.

[papau]

4. LOL -- nicely said - :-)

:-)

5. Housing bubble has to pop to give economy a fresh start <eom>

[stevebreeze]

6. of course none of these schmucks saw the last recession

The surprise is they are admitting the strong possibility now.

You can read a little from one economist, Dean Baker, who did see both the recession and the stock bubble here.... http://www.cepr.net/pages/baker.htm

7. Dean Baker for Secretary of the Treasury!

There is an idea?!?