GEAB N°34 is available! Summer 2009: The international monetary system’s breakdown is underway

[Emillereid]

GEAB N°34 is available! Summer 2009: The international monetary system’s breakdown is underway

- Public announcement GEAB N°34 (April 15, 200) -


<snip>

In fact, everyone knows what prisoners dream of? They dream of escaping of course, of getting out of prison. LEAP/E2020 has therefore no doubt that Beijing is now (3) constantly striving to find the means of disposing of, as early as possible, the mountain of « toxic » assets which US Treasuries and Dollars have become, keeping the wealth of 1,300 billion Chinese citizens (4) prisoner. In this issue of the GEAB (N°34), our team describes the “tunnels and galleries” Beijing has secretively begun to dig in the global financial and economic system in order to escape the « dollar trap » by the end of summer 2009. Once the US has defaulted on its debt, it will be time for the « everyman for himself » rule to prevail in the international system, in line with the final statement of the London G20 Summit which reads as a « chronicle of a geopolitical dislocation », as explained by LEAP/E2020 in this issue of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin.


Quarterly Chinese foreign exchange reserves growth - Source: People’s Bank of China / New York Times, 04/2009
Behind London’s « fools’ game », where everyone pretended to believe that an event of « historical » international co-operation (5) took place, the G20 summit in fact revealed major divisions. The Americans and British (followed by a compliant Japan) desperately tried to preserve their capacity to maintain control over the global financial system, freezing or diluting any significant reform granting more power to the other players, but in fact no longer powerful enough to enforce their aims. The Chinese, Russians, Indians, Brazilians,… strove to change the balance of the international monetary and financial system in their favour, but were unable (or maybe, deep down, unwilling (6)) to impose their reforms. The Europeans (the EU without the United Kingdom) proved incapable of making up their minds between the only two options available: duplicating US and UK policies and sinking along with them, or questioning the very roots of the current monetary and financial system in partnership with the Chinese, the Russians, the Indians and the Brazilians. Today the Europeans have avoided following Washington and London in their endless reproduction of failed past policies (7), but they do not yet dare to prepare for the future.


The ongoing collapse of world trade growth cannot be explained by past relationships – Quarterly growth rates annualized - Source: OECD, March 2009
The Europeans can be held accountable if, in the remaining small window of opportunity (less than 6 months now), they fail to undertake the necessary steps to avoid a 10 year-long tragic crisis (8). Indeed they have the technical know-how that can help to create an international currency based on a basket of the world’s most important currencies, and they know which political approach is required to best combine the various strategic interests of a group of countries whose currencies would comprise the new international reserve currency. Unfortunately, EU leaders (namely Eurozone ones) clearly seem unable to face their responsibilities today, as if they preferred to let the Western system break down (though claiming the contrary) rather than fight to turn it into a bridge leading to a new global system. It may be a choice (LEAP/E2020 does not believe so); it may also be the result of the pusillanimity of EU leaders selected on the basis of their docility (vis-à-vis Washington and major European financial and economic players). In any event, this neutrality is dangerous for the world because it prevents the launch of an effective process to avoid a decade-long tragic crisis to unwind (9).

In this issue of the GEAB, our researchers anticipate the different forms a US default will take at the end of summer 2009, a US default which can no longer be concealed concealable from this April (most taxes are collected in April in the US) onward (10). The perspective of a US default this summer is becoming clearer as public debt is now completely out of control with skyrocketing expenses (+41%) and collapsing tax revenues (-28%), as LEAP/E2020 anticipated more than a year ago. In March 2009 alone, the federal deficit has nearly reached USD 200-billion (way above the most pessimistic forecasts), i.e. a little less than half of the deficit recorded for the entire year 2008 (a record high year) (11). The same trend can be observed at every level of the country’s public organisation: federal state, federated states (12), counties, towns (13), everywhere tax revenues are vanishing, suffocating the whole country with spiraling debts that no one can control anymore (not even Washington).

<snip> more at link:http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-34-is-available!-Summer-2009-The-international-monetary-system-s-breakdown-is-underway_a3129.html

Is there any safe haven?

[marketcrazy1]

1. yup!

things are going to get down right NASTY!!

[ixion]

2. I've been preparing now for a couple years...

I'm glad I started sooner rather than later. You look around you, and everyone pretends like nothing is happening, pretends everything is normal. I wonder, then, if I'm losing it. I've bought land out in the middle of nowhere, I've been stock-piling dry goods, dried fruit, cooking oil, lamp oil, propane, camping supplies, hand tools -- people told me I was nuts.

They don't tell me that anymore.

I think most people see this coming, and they're scared. They won't deal with it until it's on the doorstep, at which point it will be too late.

Prepare now. You don't need to be 'nuts' about it (although time is short), but just try and be methodical.

[marketcrazy1]

3. I think people are in denial.

they do not REALLY believe things will get THAT bad, when it does turn to shit they will regret not doing more or even doing SOMETHING to prepare. it does not take much, stockpile food ( you can always eat it ) spend a few bucks on a camp stove, kerosene lanterns, water purification tablets or filters, some hand tools and a battery radio with shortwave ( and some batteries ). a few hundred bucks worth of shit will be a huge help IF the need arises............ 1500 bucks can go a LONG ways if spent wisely and 90 percent of what you buy you can STILL use if things work out, money well spent IMO!!

[DemReadingDU]

7. that's my spouse

He truly doesn't believe things will ever get bad. Because Obama will call out the National Guard to keep order, he will set up food distribution centers to feed the hungry people, and create jobs so people can work.

Maybe so. But all that takes weeks (months) to organize, and nobody knows what could happen if/when things implode quickly.

So in the meantime, I've stockpiled some food and water, just in case.

[bvar22]

4. We cashed out in 2006.

Bought rural property in the South with an on property source of abundant clean water (Spring).
Low property taxes, surrounded by National Forest, plenty of wild game, long growing season, low energy overhead, no Industry or Urban areas for many, many miles.
Planted a big veggie garden, planted lots of fruit trees and many kinds of berries, keep a dozen chickens and a couple of Bee Colonies.

We Quit.
We refuse to pay for MORE WARS and Wall Street Bailouts.
We have reduced our taxable income to near poverty levels.
We don't have a mortgage and don't use credit for anything.
We build everything ourselves.
If we can't build it, we buy 2nd hand or salvage directly from the previous owner when possible.
As much as possible, we have stopped CONSUMING in the American Corporate sense of the word.
Next year, we will consume even less.

We don't consider ourselves "Survivalists", and genuinely pray that the Big Crunch doesn't happen since that would make things harder for everyone inclding us.
We chose this lifestyle because we are attracted to it, and to deny funding to Corporate America and our One Party political system.

[ixion]

6. that's inspiring...

always good to hear stories of other folks who've managed to break the cycle. I'm not quite as far along, but walking the same path that you are now. I hope it doesn't come, either, but if it does, I want to be ready, and if not, living "simply and wisely" has been a goal of mine for many years now, and I'm happy to finally see it taking shape.

Thanks for the inspiring post! :applause:

[formercia]

5. I feel for the city folk

when the local governments are unable to provide support for a growing population of unemployed and homeless......

[GeorgeGist]

8. 1,300 Billion Chinese?

Are they building a secret black hole through which to escape?

[Emillereid]

9. That's 1.3 billion to you and me - Europeans use a comma where we use a period.