"88% Of Respondents Think Economy Is Still In A Recession"

[Joanne98]

The one index that just refused to correlate to the market, and the UMichigan Index, and the Confidence Board, was released today, and once again hit a 2010 low of -49. The index has been in a -48 to -49 range for the past five weeks. The primary reason for this week's drop was due to a 6 point decline in the personal finance component, from -6 to -12, the lowest reading since December 6, with not much change in the other two readings: National Economy and Buying Conditions. It is somewhat confounding that this index persistently "refuses" to go up with all the other self-reinforcing confidence indices out there.Maybe this is the reason: from the report "Eighty-eight percent think that the economy, despite what economists say to the contrary, is still in a recession."

From the press release:

Consumer confidence is on a cold streak, locked in place since the beginning of the year at very near its worst-ever rating – and more than three in four think the economy is stalled or will decline in coming months.



The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, in a 2-point range and without significant movement for the past six weeks. It is hovering just 5 points from its all-time low, -54 last January, and is far worse than its long-term average, -13 in 24 years of weekly polls.



A separate, forward-looking measure finds little in the way of optimism for the economy’s future. Just 23 percent think things are getting better and 77 percent say the economy is staying the same or getting worse – a chilling assessment given the very low ratings of current sentiment

Continued>>>>
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/abc-consumer-comfort-index-drops-again-88-respondents-think-economy-still-recession

Chart at link

[YOY]

1. We're still deep in the trough...that much is obvious.

The sinking may be stopping but the signs are not as visual as they will be in a couple of years.

I am still skeptic to full recovery personally.

[MannyGoldstein]

2. If They Only Had Economics Degrees...

They'd understand that they actually aren't out of work.
:crazy:

[fasttense]

3. Where have all the jobs gone...Long time passing.

With NO JOBS, there is NO confidence. This is a recover-less recovery.

[ixion]

4. I think anyone outside the beltway/MSM knows this

it's only unplugged pols and pundits that insist we're in recovery.

[flyarm]

5. wow Obama is now saying money went or is going to small businesses..has he been out in America?

has he seen all the closed stores and empty strip malls ? Has he seen all the small businesses that have closed up shop?..has he seen any of what is going on in our neighborhoods throughout this nation?

I don't need to go to WWW.Gov crap to see it right where I live..or as I travel, see it everywhere I go!!

I have seen more "AVAILABLE" SIGNS in every strip mall every damn place I go..and not one or two..like 10-20 in each strip mall...from Florida to California!

I don't need WWW.GOV to see seniors in grocery lines using food stamps..unlike anything I have seen in my lifetime..I don't need the bullshit on web sites or www.gov's to see people suffering. Feckkkkk..most of the seniors i see suffering don';t have a fecking computer..to go to WWW.Gov to hear hopey changey bullshit!

I don't need a computer and to go to WWW.gov to hear my son's friends who have all college degree's that can't get a damn job..and if they had one have lost it over a year ago..with no " hopey " in store for them! And those who haven't lost the job..are terrified they will soon!

No amount of WWW.Anything is going to help them or restore their hope for their futures.or feed their babies!

[unblock]

6. because more than 88% of the respondents don't understand the term

and the media is to blame. we're no longer in a recession because (short version) the economy as a whole (as measured by that single statistic, gdp) has stopped shrinking and started growing.

that does NOT mean all is rosy. on the contrary, the recovery period is often very painful, as the economy has quite a lot of growing to do in order to replace the losses (in terms of jobs as well as product and capital).


the media has used the term "recession" as synonymous with "bad economy" and implied that if there's no recession it must be a "good economy" but that's a serious misuse of the term.


in short, "recession" means "going down" and growth means "going up". they refer to direction, not absolute position. this is useful for economists and investors, but not generally for job hunters.

most people think in terms of position. better than last year doesn't matter as much as if the economy is working well or not.

[nomorenomore08]

8. The technical definition isn't what matters here, though.

For someone struggling to find (or keep) a job, who sees that their family and friends are mostly in the same predicament, the fact that we aren't technically in a "recession" anymore doesn't make much difference.

And I think that's the real point of the OP - public perception.

[nomorenomore08]

7. They aren't fooled, then. Good!

And yeah, you can split hairs over the exact definition of "recession," but from the perspective of the general public, if it *feels* like a recession - and I'm sure it still does to most, 88% by this poll - then it is one. And it'll probably feel like one for a good couple years, anyway.

[upi402]

9. Even James Fallows is saying, "don't worry" if not saying 'be happy'

He should understand what looms, I figure. His dad saw his life's work melt away in the craziness in Venezuela. For him to think things are not dire here, makes me question myself.