Arctic Study Projects Massive Regional Warming - Release Due In November

[hatrack]

OSLO: "Global warming is set to accelerate in the Arctic and bring drastic change for people and wildlife in coming decades, according to a draft report that has opened cracks among nations in the region about how to slow the thaw.

“(The) Arctic climate is warming rapidly now and much larger changes are projected,” concluded the international study, compiled by 600 experts and due for release at a conference in Iceland in November.

Rising temperatures will disrupt life for people, bringing more storms and destabilising everything from homes to oil pipelines. Melting glaciers could raise global sea levels and spoil habitats for creatures like polar bears, it says. The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the world partly because sea water and dark ground, once exposed, trap far more heat than ice and snow which reflect the sun’s rays.

The report’s draft summary says the rise in temperatures is being stoked by human emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels in cars, factories and power plants. Arctic temperatures could surge by 4-7 degrees Celsius or roughly double the rate predicted by UN studies for the planet as a whole by 2100, it says."

EDIT

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/840260.cms

[phantom power]

1. another report published by the bureaucracy....

[hatrack]

2. "I don't think so" - GW Bush, re. new US climate change study, 8/04

President Bush - because he says so!

[phantom power]

3. this albedo thing has me worried.

The difference between blinding white, and dark grey or brown, is a big deal. That, combined with the increased open-water in the arctic oceans, just *have* to add up to big climate changes, regardless of whatever might or might not happen with ocean currents.

[hatrack]

4. Particularly in terms of CO2 and methane releases from frozen soils

With permafrost breakdown proceeding apace in Alaska and the Canadian Arctic, this may not be too far off.

[Oggy]

7. It is a positive feedback system

I did some work in my degree many years ago on the effects of albedo changes on global warming. My conclusions were past a certain point the feedback would cause the arctic icepack to melt completely.

[Viking12]

5. NYT: Eskimos Fret as Climate Shifts and Wildlife Changes

Arctic char, caribou and ringed seal are showing abnormally hard livers, according to a draft of the report that is to be released in September. Caribou have worms in their muscles and between their joints. The fat in Beluga whales is changing color. Hunters across the eastern Canadian Arctic are reporting that an increasing number of polar bears look emaciated, probably because their hunting season has been shortened by the shrinking ice cover.
The Pangnirtung fiord, for instance, formerly was covered with hard ice between October and July, but in the past several years residents here say it has only been frozen between December and May.

The Meteorological Service of Canada reports that the summers of 2002 and 2003 were particularly warm in the eastern Canadian Arctic, and the last three winters have also been unseasonably mild. The Yukon and Alaska have been downright scorching in recent months, with temperatures in Whitehorse reaching over 85 degrees nine days in a row in June.

Even migration patterns are changing. Some say the walrus have changed their hunting grounds, moving farther north where it is colder. Animal behavior also seems to be changing. Hunters say the shifts have been most marked the last 5 to 10 years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/06/international/americas/06canada.html?adxnnl=1&8hpib=&adxnnlx=1094529659-uqW8vOPUiMWUR/WDcTNscA

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Sea Surface Temperature anomalies

I've posted this (and a similar chart) elsewhere over the last week, but you may want to take another, closer, look:



See those red colors at the top of the chart? That's the Arctic sweltering under temperatures from 3-12F higher than normal for this time of the year.

Each year, it's been warmer than the last. At its current rate of increase -- which is by no means guaranteed -- the Arctic will be at that 4-7C average level in a few years, not 2100.

Before the last major climate change (I think it was the Younger-Dryas phase), Arctic temperatures are estimated to have increased over 60F above their usual levels. This number was drawn from "proxy data", probably isotope ratio studies, and was more likely to have happened in the winter than in the summer.

At this point, I think it's likely that global warming is being accelerated by methane release from northern soils and oceanic methane clathrates. The methane released from soil is from the organic materials in the soil decomposing in the higher temperature, much like happens in a compost heap. This is probably creating a chronic "temperature inversion" above 60N latitude. If it amplifies the meteorological Polar Vortex, the northern weather this fall and winter will be wilder as all that heat is "discharged" into polar storm systems.

Superstorm? Probably not. But more snow and ice. It ought to be an excellent skiing season!

--bkl