9/7 14:00 AST Ivan near Grenada - Back to Cat 3, 120 Max. Sustained Winds

[hatrack]

EDIT

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN...WITH 120 MPH WINDS...MOVING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...TOBAGO...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR TRINIDAD HAS BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE
...AND ST. LUCIA AND TRINIDAD.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BONAIRE...CURACAO AND ARUBA.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRENADA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. ON THIS THE
EYE OF IVAN WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER GRENADA SHORTLY AND THEN WILL
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA P3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE EYE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BARBADOS HAS BEEN REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE
WIND GUSTS FOR SEVERAL HOUR AND JUST MEASURED A GUST TO 81 MPH...
130 KM/HR. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE ROOFS BEING BLOWN OFF BY
WINDS ON TOBAGO...ST. VINCENT...AND GRENADA...AS WELL AS SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN BARBADOS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 957 MB...28.23 INCHES."

EDIT



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071756.shtml?

5-day tracking map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/071503W5.gif

[Renew Deal]

1. That storm sure is something.

It was being sheered badly and it went from 135 to 105. It looks like it's recovering. NOAA has it going back to 135 within 48 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904I+GIF/071503I.gif

Some of the models I have seen for it have it going further east to Florida or even the mid atlantic area. It all depends on some highs over the US.

[Renew Deal]

2. One more thing.

If you look at that path, you see it arch's east. This thing might cross back into Florida. Like I said, the models I have seen are pushing east above the 25th parallel.

[hatrack]

3. An unpleasant thought - Charley, V. 2.0 nt

.

[Gothmog]

4. Keep Ivan away from Houston

The storm appeared to be aimed at either New Orleans or Houston right now.

[Dudley_DUright]

5. I doubt if it will get anywhere near Texas

Florida is the hurricane magnet this year. I predict is hits the panhandle of FL (which is where I am hiding out from Frances at the moment, but leaving for home tomorrow).

[hatrack]

6. 9/7 17:00 AST - Ivan Just Passed Over Grenada - Cat 3, Moving West

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM. GRENADA REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 93 MPH...150
KM/HR WHEN THE EYE WAS APPROACHING ABOUT ONE HOUR AGO.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS IVAN PASSES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071756.shtml

[Zynx]

7. I'll give you a worst case scenario.

Storm passes south of Jamaica, continuing to gain strength off virgin warm water, skirts Cuba, feeds a bit more off the Gulf then hooks right in ala Charley.

[theHandpuppet]

40. So far...

... you're looking positively psychic. As of Sat morning, Ivan has skirted south of Jamaica and no sign yet that its turning north. Will it thread the needle between the Yucatan and Cuba and head, unimpeded, straight into the gulf on its way to Florida? The next 24-36 hours should be very interesting.

[Boomer]

8. And raise you a Category 4

Ivan intensifies to Category 4 hurricane

MIAMI (CNN) -- Ivan became a Category 4 hurricane Tuesday evening and continued to move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported.

At 8 p.m. ET, Ivan had sustained winds of 135 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts and was moving west at 18 mph. A hurricane warning remains in effect for St. Vincent, the Grenadines and Grenada and its dependencies.

The storm was located 65 miles west of Grenada and 385 miles east of Bonaire, a Caribbean island off the coast of Venezuela.

(Edited for fumble fingers)

[hatrack]

9. Well, that didn't take very long

I can see I'll be spending a fair amount of time at NOAA's website in the next few days.

[NNadir]

10. Holy fecal matter. That's the third category 4 storm this season.

Two ended up hitting Florida, although one had weakened before hand.

If those hurricanes had hit New Jersey, we would have lots of fundies announcing that it was God's will since our Governor is gay. Since Florida has twice elected a member of the Bush cabal however, we will hear no such thing from the Pravada on the Potamac, our media, even though it's possible - doyahthink? - this just might have something to do with climatic instability.

[hatrack]

11. 9/7 23:00 AST - Cat. 4 Ivan Heading W, Turn NW Expected, Winds 135 MPH

You all can see the tracking map. This does not look promising.

EDIT

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 335 MILES...
540 KM...EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

12. 9/8 05:00 AST - Ivan 210 Miles W Grenada, 140 Max. Sustained, Moving West

That tracking map just gets uglier and uglier . . .

EDIT

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IVAN STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.

AT 5 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAITI LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...WEST OF GRENADA. THIS ALSO ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...
EAST OF BONAIRE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN NORTH OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EDIT

[hatrack]

13. 9/7 11:00 AST - 790 Miles ESE Kingston, Max. Sustained Winds 140 MPH

EDIT

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES...235
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

EDIT

[phantom power]

14. Hurrican Ivan devastates Grenada

Hurricane Ivan made a direct hit on Grenada with ferocious winds, causing ‘‘incalculable damage" and killing at least three people as it turned concrete homes into rubble and hurled hundreds of the island's landmark red zinc roofs through the air, officials said Wednesday.

The most powerful storm to hit the Caribbean in 14 years reportedly devastated Grenada's capital, St. George's, and also damaged homes in Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent. Thousands were without water, electricity and telephone service just days after Hurricane Frances rampaged through.

Ivan strengthened even as it was over Grenada on Tuesday, becoming a Category 4 storm. It got even stronger as it headed across the Caribbean Sea, passing north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

http://www.salon.com/news/wire/2004/09/08/ivan/index.html

[hatrack]

15. 9/8 14:00 AST Ivan Turning To WNW, 740 From Kingston, Max Winds 140+

EDIT

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...165
KM...NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THOSE
ISLANDS.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
PLANE WAS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

EDIT

[benfranklin1776]

16. Time lapse satellite imagery of its track

Infrared:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


Visible:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

[hatrack]

17. 9/8 17:00 AST Ivan 685 ESE Kingston Winds 140, Pressure 947 MB

EDIT

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7
WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND
685 MILES...1100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH ...28 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...
BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 947
MB...27.96 INCHES.

EDIT

[Boomer]

18. 9/9 Ivan strengthens to Category 5

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5927015/

EDIT

The strongest storm so far this season with 160 mph winds, Hurricane Ivan has already devastated Grenada, where it was blamed for at least 15 fatalities.

The storm strengthened early Thursday to become a Category 5 on a scale of 1 to 5. It packed sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts as it passed north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

Ivan is expected to reach Jamaica by Friday, Cuba by the weekend, and possibly the Florida coast by early Monday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Ivan "could still intensify a little more this morning."

EDIT

[hatrack]

19. 9/9 08:00 AST - Ivan 455 SE Kingston - Max Sustained 160, Pressure 921 Mb

EDIT

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT
455 MILES...735 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE
TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
160 MPH...255 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 919 MB...27.14
INCHES ABOUT TWO HOURS...BUT IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY AND IT IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

EDIT

[Boomer]

20. More details on the devastation

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/09/09/hurricane.ivan.ap/index.html

Ivan -- the most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in nearly a decade -- has damaged 90 percent of Grenada's homes and destroyed a prison that left criminals running loose, officials said Wednesday.

The storm killed 15 people in Grenada and at least one each in Tobago, Venezuela and Barbados.

It is expected to inflict additional damage as its 140 mph winds churn toward Jamaica, Cuba and possibly the southern United States.

"We are terribly devastated ... It's beyond imagination," Prime Minister Keith Mitchell told his people and the world -- from aboard a British Royal Navy vessel that rushed to the rescue.

EDIT

[hatrack]

21. 9/9 11:00 AST - Jamaica Issues Warning - Ivan 430 ESE Kingston Press. 920

EDIT

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES...
695 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WIT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

EDIT

[phantom power]

22. Holy god.

[phantom power]

23. 160mph is an F3 tornado. 80 miles wide.

[hatrack]

24. Note that the 11AM projected track has moved West again

Nobody is going to get it like Jamaica, though.

[hatrack]

25. 9/9 14:00 AST Ivan 360 SE Kingston, Max. Sustained 160, Pressure 923 Mb

EDIT

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTONJAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ONFRIDAY.

IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

EDIT

[ilyashl]

26. global warming at work?

Why aren't Floridians blaming Bush for the hurricanes? Hurricans are caused by global warming (http://www.ipcc.ch); global warming is caused by greenhouse gas emissions; Bush has opposed curbs on emissions. No, he couldn't prevent today's hurricanes, but he isn't doing anything to prevent future ones. Why aren't Floridians outraged?

[phantom power]

27. Not enough people are aware of the connection.

It's important to calibrate our expectations. Even now that these things are coming to pass, doesn't mean that people will suddenly say "Wow, the environmentalists were right all along!"

It's easy to say "well, it's just a fluke", or "it was going to happen anyway, with or without humans."

I'm sure there are plenty of people who will, in all seriousness, chalk it all up to the wrath of God. They'll *blame* the scientists, not listen to them.

[Boomer]

28. Just a normal fluctuation...

...or so say the media articles I've been reading recently. Here is a typical example:

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/3077480/

EDIT

According to the researchers, the hurricane system swings like a pendulum between more and less active modes of operation, each lasting several decades.

In contrast with previous 24 years, which have been relatively quiet, the last six years have seen a doubling in overall hurricane activity coming from the Atlantic Ocean, with a fivefold increase specifically in the Caribbean.

A commonly asked question is whether this increase might be due to global warming. The new results suggest that the answer is no — at least not primarily. The hurricane track record of the last six years looks similar to the one from the 1920s to the 1960s, when major hurricanes were also relatively common. Goldenberg and his colleagues think the recent upsurge in hurricane activity is more likely the latest swing in the long-term cycle.

“Saying that this increase in activity is from global warming is like saying that it’s getting hot right now because of global warming. Actually, the real reason it’s getting hot is that it’s summer,” Goldenberg said.

EDIT

[phantom power]

29. And they might even be right.

The problem with anthropogenic climate change is, that the only way to collect enough data to prove it is to let it run it's course for a while.

I'd prefer to *prevent* it, even if it means we won't ever be able to prove we wouldn't have caused it.

[hatrack]

30. Very hard to attribute point events like hurricanes to long-term trends

One thing that would really stand out as an indicator would be a major increase in storm strength - for example, if (God forbid) Ivan came ashore at 880 or even 870 Mb. Pressures that low on a storm making landfall would indicate that something had clearly changed, as would the cataclysmic (a word I do not use lightly) damage which would result.

Another possible indicator - multiple hurricanes hitting Florida or the Gulf Coast over multiple years. Again, hurricane activity does seem to operate in long, slow cycles, not unlike ENSO or PDO, but multiple large strikes over extended periods could, perhaps, indicate some serious gear slippage in the planetary weather machine.

But beyond that, it's really hard to pin the blame on climate change when so many other variables are at work.

[hatrack]

31. 9/9 17:00 AST Ivan 350 SE Kingston Max Sustained 150+ Pressure 921 Mb

Track moving slightly west again - now looking like Florida's "armpit" where the panhandle begins as possible landfall.

EDIT

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 350 MILES... 565 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150
MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS....IVAN IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPROTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

[Wilber_Stool]

32. Great Googly Mooglies

[hatrack]

33. Damn, those are some graphic graphics!

Thanks, Wilber - cool stuff!! Frightening, but cool, in a vaguely apocalyptic way.

[hatrack]

34. 9/9 23:00 AST Ivan 290 SE Kingston Max. Sustained 150, Pressure 923 Mb.

No tracking forecast change yet, though that usually lags by a few minutes.

EDIT

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST OR ABOUT 290 MILES...
465 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IVAN COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT APPROACHES JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

35. 9/10 08:00 AST Ivan 165 SE Kingston, Max Sustained 145, Pressure 934 Mb

May become stronger as it approaches Jamaica, track shifting very slightly to the east, Tampa Bay area now possible landfall.

EDIT

AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
AND IVAN COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS IT NEARS JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONAAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

36. 9/10 11:00 AST Ivan 155 SE Kingston, Max. Sustained 145, Pressure 934 Mb

EDIT

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES...
245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

37. 9/10 14:00 AST Ivan 85 SSE Kingston Max. Sustained 145 Pressure 939 Mb

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER
ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

38. 9/10 17:00 EDT Ivan 80 SSE Kingston, Max. Sustained 140, Pressure 937 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING THE CORE OF IVAN TO NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
WAS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

EDIT

[Dogmudgeon]

39. 9/11 05:00 EST Ivan strikes Jamaica - Cat 4, 150 Max. Sustained Winds

(Moderators, please note: NHC reports are in the Public Domain and may be recopied. See Copyright Act of 1978.)

Since Hatrack's last post, Ivan struck Jamaica and has caused widespread damage there. It is moving toward the Cayman Islands, and its track is also expected to take it over Havana, Cuba, by Monday morning.

Currently, the wind speed is picking up and the eye barometric pressure is dropping. At 2AM, Ivan was at the Category 4-5 "border" with winds at 155 mph and a barometric pressure of 923 mB. The official wind speed estimate has dropped back to 150, but the pressure reading is still 923.

...EYE OF IVAN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CRUZ TO CIENFUEGOS. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FROM
SATIAGO DE CUBA TO CIENFUEGOS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS DISCONTINUED FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA AND ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...SOUTH
OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

AFTER A WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N... 78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

--bkl

[hatrack]

41. 9/11 08:00 EDT Ivan 60 S Montego Bay, Max Sustained 150, Pressure 923 Mb

Some strenghtening possible before reaching Cayman Islands tomorrow morning.

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...
SOUTH OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD MOVE NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

42. 9/11 17:00 EDT Ivan 145 ESE Grand Cayman - Max. Sustained 165, 914 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT
145 MILES... 235 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. ON
THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS MAKES IVAN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

EDIT

[Boomer]

43. Yikes!

If Ivan runs over the Cayman Islands, they'll be destroyed.

I'm also wondering if the focus on warning Florida is creating a sense of complacency in other coastal communities along the Gulf. If Ivan fails to turn North as predicted, time for reaction will be very short. Some cities, like New Orleans, might not be able to evacuate their citizens at the last minute.

[NNadir]

45. Were a storm this intense to hit New Orleans head on, there might not be

a New Orleans anymore.

[hatrack]

44. 9/11 20:00 EDT Ivan 130 SE Grand Cayman, Max Sustained 165, 912 Mb

It may wobble a bit to the west in the next 12 hours, but should begin moving N/NW by Sunday morning. As the map indicates, the entire western half of Cuba is under warning.

EDIT

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 205 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES... 110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 912 MB...26.93 INCHES. THIS IS THE
SIXTH LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

EDIT

[Dogmudgeon]

46. 9/12 05:00 EDT Ivan 55 SSE Grand Cayman, Max Sustained 155, 918mB

Hatrack may sleep, but Ivan does not (give this a qualified :) ).

Here's the overnight report:

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN THREATENS GRAND CAYMAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR VERY NEAR...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH...250
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE
INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB...27.11 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... CAN BE EXPECTED IN
PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
IVAN. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY
HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...18.6 N... 80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

Looking more like a hit on the FL panhandle, between Pensacola and Tallahassee. Ivan experienced less of a drop in power tonight, but it is expected to lose significant energy as it crosses western Cuba late Monday.

--bkl

[phantom power]

47. Does anybody know why they're predicting weakening over the Gulf?

It seems like it could gain energy over the warm Gulf waters, not lose it.

[Boomer]

49. I thought so, too

According to the meteorologists, though, the Gulf air is also somewhat dry, so that's expected to weaken the storm.

We can only hope they're right....

[hatrack]

48. 9/12 11:00 EDT Ivan 30 SW Grand Cayman Max. Sustained 155 919 MB

EDIT

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
OVER...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF...GRAND CAYMAN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM. HAM RADIO REPORTS INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 110 MPH...HAVE BEEN
MEASURED ON GRAND CAYMAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 919 MB...27.14 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

50. 9/12 11:00 EDT Ivan 175 SE Isle Of Youth Max Winds 160, 917 Mb

Turn to the northwest likely tonight. Track looks like likely Pensacola-Biloxi impact.

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...
285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH
...15 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED EARLY ON
MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER EXTREME
WESTERN CUBA MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 917 MB...27.08 INCHES.

EDIT

[Dogmudgeon]

51. 9/13 0500 EDT Ivan 125 SSE West tip of Cuba Max Winds 160, 920 Mb

For the overnight and morning crowd. Hatrack needs to sleep sometime, y'know!

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT..0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO
PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS WATCH
COULD BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT MOTION...THE CENTER COULD MISS
THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND COULD EVEN MOVE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 TO 25 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL...IF IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
THE PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...20.2 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 920 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

Still a monster; veering toward a Pensacola-to-Biloxi strike, due early Thursday morning.

--bkl

[hatrack]

52. 9/13 14:00 EDT Ivan 70 SSE W. Tip Of Cuba Max Sust. 160 Pressure 914 Mb

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...
110 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

53. 9/13 17:00 EDT Ivan 30 S Western Tip Of Cuba; Winds 160 Pressure 912 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...
45 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT REMAIN NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 220 MILES...350 KM. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HAM RADIO
OPERATORS HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH TREES AND
POWERLINES DOWN IN THE PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WESTERN CUBA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 912 MB...26.93 INCHES.

EDIT

[phantom power]

54. It's not just strong. It's really wide. 115 mile radius!

56. The water is warm on the track now to Louisiana near New Orleans.

A report said that I read earlier. Warm, but shallower water.

It was supposed to weaken but did not It missed Cuba, so it wasn't slowed down.

The water is warm on the track now to Louisiana near New Orleans.

It has worried me all along that their models aren't working as well as hoped; I believe this because there is a new set of factors emerging, both the much-discussed repeating cycle which is rising, and second, global warming--however so small.

55. Read THIS--

Truth “In the Eyes of Hurricanes”
By Dan Spillane, The Liberty Whistle
--Bush, Cheney, Zell Miller Need to Apologize
--Hurricane Threat Far Exceeds WMD
--Warming vs. “Natural Cycle” is Wrong Debate

(SEATTLE) 09/13/04 -- While the US media roars about which presidential candidate “might or might not” defend the country against terrorism, the discussion has itself grown into what it seeks to defeat. Recently, Mr. Cheney went so far as to employ terror on his own people for political means, by suggesting the country might be attacked if he lost power.

But as we focus on the terror threat—apparently, while we are expected to be trembling under our beds—we might miss so many other dangers in the world. After all, while September 11th was terrible, attacks against the US at home and abroad have been rather infrequent both before and since. Indeed, improved US security measures at home appear to be working. And importantly, examples abound in the Middle East that clearly demonstrate attacks beget revenge attacks—even for decades at a time, and running. So what other threats lurk in our future?

An important example--occurring with increasing frequency and intensity--are tropical hurricanes. Take Florida over the past few weeks, where two severe hurricanes have hit, a third is on the way, a fourth is headed towards Mexico and California, and incredibly, a fifth is newly forming (as of the date of this article). This is certainly a growing danger, and a hurricane is about as massive a destructive force as our planet offers. It turns out, the energy of a hurricane is truly “massively destructive”—it often exceeds that of a nuclear bomb. (1) So if the US has multiple nuclear bombs headed in its direction in just a few weeks, why aren’t leaders saying anything about it? Indeed, what long-term policy decisions have been made to defend against this growing threat--occurring with both higher frequency and more destructive force than terrorist attacks?

According to the best available research, we know that warmer oceans lead to more frequent and intense hurricanes—which is the cause currently, along with a few other factors. It is also known that global temperatures have been rising due to global warming, induced by higher energy use, and projections call for even more changes; in fact, the Bush administration (or portions of it) has recently admitted global warming is a problem. And yet there is currently a debate of whether the current wave of hurricanes is due to “global warming,” or due to a “natural cycle currently on the rise.”

Unfortunately, therein lies a serious logic problem—in treating the debate as if there are two mutually exclusive possibilities leading to a rash of hurricanes. This leaves out the third possibility--which is supported by the most evidence—with both natural hurricane and man-made warming cycles rising simultaneously. Indeed, the media is properly quoting experts who have reason to believe past natural cycles have occurred, and such a multi-decade cycle is currently on the rise, since 1995. But at the same time, there are myriad independent symptoms of rapidly increasing global temperatures, which started well before 1995, and have been rising constantly. In fact, some warming symptoms have arisen rather suddenly.

So no scientist can truly tell us what the outcome of a rise in twin cycles might be--since this is the first time the “natural cycle” is combined with the current level of man-made global warming. But disturbingly, even if critics are right, and global warming plays no part in what we are seeing play out in Florida now, we’re still left with the likelihood that the current natural increase cycle could last for decades; moreover, we are told nevertheless to expect increasing intensity due to global warming alone, when the natural cycle ebbs. In short, hurricane problems in Florida are not likely to end soon, for not simply one, but two reasons—in fact, hurricanes are most likely to worsen. People will, understandably, no longer wish to live in southern coastal areas; insurance companies will find it impossible to cover such liability. Such may even happen later this year.

And so here lies the nexus of proper debate this election year--in the eyes of hurricanes, which are certainly ‘oiled’ by increased use of energy. That is, the destructive force seen now in the Gulf of Mexico is the shape of things to come--no matter what the cause. Moreover, several elected officials have done absolutely nothing to defend us, and everything possible to put us in more danger. Notably, there is Sen. Zell Miller, who acted legislatively in favor of big auto and oil companies, nixing pollution standards for SUVs. Next, and more recently, Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney acted to pass tax cuts leading to still more SUV use--and as well, started the Iraqi war, which produces untold pollution. And if it's true that they seek Iraqi’s oil reserves, we could be in for a lot of trouble should that energy be released.

So the three—Bush, Cheney, and Miller--need to apologize for the current wave of hurricanes, and for endangering the country and our future with the force of hundreds of nuclear bombs. Only after that apology, might we talk about our false belief that Saddam Hussein could threaten the US--with but a tiny fraction of the destructive force already evidenced in the Gulf of Mexico this year.

Footnotes, Additional reading:

(1) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory; the calculation of 1.3 x 10e17 Joules/day is comparable to that of a nuclear explosion (at least); other sources suggest Hurricanes carry 10,000 times the energy of a nuclear bomb. Estimate -- one with seventeen zeros after it units of energy

(2) SUV Report

+ + +

This story brought to you by: “The Liberty Whistle…a powerful ‘connect-the-dots’ in stars and stripes form--not seen since revolutionary times!”

Comments to: [e-mail]

website
www.libertywhistle.us

57. In the 10pm CDT 09/13 projection, it is headed straight for a low area

Surrounding MOBILE Alabama

Look at these two maps:

Notice low-lying area around bay--



Map of same, note population living in said low area:

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?country=US&address=&city=Mobile&state=AL

[hatrack]

58. 9/13 23:00 EDT Ivan 40 WNW W. Tip Of Cuba Max. Sustained 160, 914 Mb

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 60
KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 914 MB...26.99 INCHES.

EDIT

59. How can New Orleans handle a 20 foot storm surge?

This can't be good.

60. Oh no Orleans is only set up for 16 feet! Surge 20-25 feet?!?!?

"A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Web site notes that "Betsy prompted Congress to authorize a ring of levees 16 feet high around the city — a project the Corps of Engineers is completing today"

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2003-10-09-hurricane-betsy_x.htm

[hatrack]

61. 9/14 16:00 CDT Warning For Grand Isle To Apalachicola Ivan 370 SSE NO LA

EDIT

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN
REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST
CATEGORY THREE.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF IVAN.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
LESSER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SURGE VALUES WILL BE EXPERIENCED
WHERE ONSHORE FLOW OCCURS WEST OF THE CENTER. WATER LEVELS ARE
ALREADY RUNNING UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/142025.shtml?

62. The Orleans levees might barely hold, but I hope they all get out

That release says the surge is up to 16 feet; that is the maximum height the levees can hold. This worries me so much because there is bound to be some spillover.

[Dogmudgeon]

63. I don't think it will be complete destruction

For one thing, the flooded area is not likely to be 16-20 feet deep all across the New Orleans area. The water is likely to breech the levees, but there will still be major resistance to the tidal surge from the hurricane. Under the water, the levees will cut down the shear and "fetch" of the flood. These two processes can sweep victims several miles out to sea. That doesn't happen as much any more.

The city's drainage system will also play a part in reducing incoming flooding and accellerating draining the flood waters.

So there are things working in favor of NOLA.

Don't get me wrong -- I don't for a minute think that the affected areas are going to avoid a tremendous disaster. There are even likely to be some deaths. But flooding is not an all-or-nothing proposition. Without levees, the area would be much worse off, even though those levees are not going to be 100% effective.

Knowing the people in that area, they are likely to throw thousands of "Hurricane Clean-Up parties". After all, they're not your run-of-the-mill southern crackers -- they're decendants of the French!

Laissez les Orages roulez!*

--bkl
*"Let the Storms roll" -- a play on "Let the Good Times roll"

[phantom power]

65. Life is a (moist) cabaret, my friend, come join the cabaret!

[Dogmudgeon]

67. This is why the HHGTTG advises you to take a towel

They're saying that the eye will cross over Alabama or far west Florida (Pensacola) so NOLA may be spared the worst.

--bkl
Greg Egan's Diaspora? I thought I was the only one who read that book.

[phantom power]

68. There are at least two of us. Have you read Schild's Ladder yet?

Egan has been my favorite SF author for the last few years, at least insofar as it's possible to pick a single favorite.

[Dogmudgeon]

69. Schwartschild's Ladder?

Nope, it's on my reading list, but my budget is way too tight to permit much book buying these days. I wonder how hard the S-F book market has been damaged by all us idled programmers who used to buy books like other people buy cigarettes.

The last piece of "hard S-F" I read was Stephen Baxter's Moonseed. The second half of the book was about a last-ditch mission to the Moon to stop an alien nanodevice (possibly of "natural" origin) from destroying the Earth and Moon. It's one of the most intense S-F techno-thrillers I've read.

Darwin's Radio (Greg Bear) and Dust (Charles Pellegrino) were also recent reads; Pellegrino isn't as prolific as Bear, but he's a great, if little-appreciated, talent.

--bkl

[phantom power]

70. Greg Bear is outrageously good.

I've read everything he ever wrote. Baxter is definitely good too.

I will put Pellegrino on my list. In the under-appreciated department, you'd probably like Peter Watts and Linda Nagata.

Egan's latest is "Schild's Ladder." (without the "schwartz")

[hatrack]

64. 9/15 07:00 CDT Ivan 180 SSE MS Mouth Winds 140 Pressure 939 Mb

EDIT

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS CENTERED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF IVAN WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

[hatrack]

66. 9/15 10:00 CDT Ivan 230 S Mobile Max Sustained 135 Pressure 939 Mb

EDIT

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH
OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IVAN IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY
THREE OR HIGHER. OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE
EXPERIENCED AT THE SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY
HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A 30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO SPREAD INLAND UP TO 100 MILES NEAR
THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 939 MB...27.73 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

71. 9/15 1:00 CDT Ivan 170 S Alabama Coast Winds 135 Pressure 939

EDIT

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALABAMA COASTLINE.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING
THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

IVAN CONTINUES AS AS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER.
OCCUPANTS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
CAN EXPECT HIGHER WINDS THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED AT THE
SURFACE...ABOUT ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY HIGHER AT THE TOP OF A
30-STORY BUILDING. AFTER LANDFALL... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD TO
SPREAD INLAND UP TO ABOUT 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

IVAN IS A LARGE HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES. THE C-MAN STATION AT
SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH IN
THE PAST HOUR.

THE LATEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 939
MB...27.73 INCHES.

EDIT

[Dogmudgeon]

72. I guess the fun is over

Ivan is barely a hurricane, and will be nothing more than a heavy rainstorm within a day or two.

But there's still Jeanne and at least two more tropical disturbances developing.

--bkl
"Ivan, we hardly knew ye."

[phantom power]

73. Ivan could still cause havoc all the way up the east coast

Frances caused flooding and tornados all the way up to NY. It looks as though Ivan could easily do the same.