5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

New Hurricane, or just tropical depression? Looks like same starting are last three took, rougly--

TNT41 KNHC 132109
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. THERE IS
PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
PATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND
HURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/2100Z 16.0N 60.4W 25 KT
12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.7N 62.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.5N 64.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.4N 66.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 15/1800Z 19.4N 68.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 71.3W 60 KT
96HR VT 17/1800Z 23.0N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 74.5W 60 KT

[teach1st]

1. Herbert Boxes and Lushine Line

2. Egad, this one is in that box too!

Thanks for the post.

[teach1st]

3. Full picture

&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

4. You can kinda see it there--that is, both of them <eom>

[teach1st]

5. Not to mention the possibilities coming off of Africa

Some of the new kids look sheared already, but some don't.

6. Yeah, I noticed those possibilities too

Time to up the importance of discussions about global warming, no?

You saw my web site, right?

www.libertywhistle.us

[Wilber_Stool]

7. From NOAA 1515 Z