Even 2004's Bumper Crops Can't Boost World Grain Reserves - FAO

[hatrack]

"Grain reserves worldwide have fallen to their lowest level in 30 years. Population continues to mushroom. Bumper harvests this year probably will meet demand, but only barely. This week the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is meeting in Rome with officials of some 120 nations. The top item on their agenda: food security. The world, some experts suggest, is teetering on the brink of a global food crisis.

But don't be surprised if their warnings go unheeded. Leaders heard similar forecasts three decades ago and dodged the danger. Can they do so again? The numbers are not encouraging.

EDIT

The supply side is, if anything, more dismal. The world's grain harvests have for four years fallen short of consumption, says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. These shortfalls have pulled down the world's grain reserves to only 59 days of consumption, the lowest level in 30 years. The FAO figures the world should have 70 days of grain supply left after each harvest, or supply becomes shaky.

Fortunately, this year's grain harvest is shaping up to be superb, thanks to excellent weather in most of the grain-producing regions. The crops of wheat, corn, and rice are up 20 to 30 percent; the soybean crop has doubled. "Yet even with this exceptional crop, we were not able to boost stocks," says Mr. Brown. This bumper crop was "just about enough to satisfy world consumption."

EDIT

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0923/p17s01-cogn.html

[Massacure]

1. Countries that import a lot of grain like China and India are in trouble

If there is a bad harvest in a major exporting country like the U.S.

[brokensymmetry]

2. Interesting!

And when we consider the effects that Peak Oil - due on Thanksgiving, 2005? - we're about to go into very interesting territory.

I wonder how stable the world will be as nuclear armed nations (China, India, others) drift into famine? :scared: