The Lessons Of Mountain-Climbing In Energy Planning & Economic Assumptions

[hatrack]

In "Deep Survival: Who lives, who dies, and why," Laurence Gonzales describes a climb up Yosemite's Cathedral Peak that brothers Rob and David Stone and their friend Steven Pinter planned on June 25, 2000. They'd timed things from their 4 a.m. start to get to the summit and back the same day. As Gonzales says, however, "The annoying thing about plans is how rare it is for everything to go just right." The 20-somethings were delayed immediately when they found someone had taken their food during the night, and it took them two hours to restock. They faced further delays when they found that the weather board still had the previous day's forecast (clear weather) posted. Rather than use up more time searching for that day's forecast, they pressed on. By then, the sun had dawned on a gorgeous day — surely the weather would be the same as the day before, they thought.

That afternoon, the three climbers saw clouds moving in, and then rain. But they could outrun the storm and be just fine, they decided. By the time they approached the summit, the threesome and two others found themselves in a hailstorm, chilled in their cotton clothing. Things got worse when lightning struck David and knocked him unconscious. His brother Rob began rescue breathing — but how were four men going to lower David down six rope-lengths of technical climbing and get him to a hospital, in a hailstorm?

In July, the Department of Public Service released the draft Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan. Like the climbers, the Department checked yesterday's forecast. The plan describes the current priorities as affordability, environment and (for electricity), reliability. It contains 27 strategies with 68 specific recommendations. If yesterday's weather continues and everything in the plan goes right, we may be just fine. Yesterday's weather, in the U.S. energy world, consists of increasing prices for energy but adequate supplies for those who can afford $4 gasoline and $5 heating oil. The Department has spotted some distant rain, noting "a growing concern that the maximum rate of global production of oil and natural gas will reach a peak in the near future." (Many well-informed observers believe the peak for oil production has already been reached, but it's not possible to declare the peak definitively until some years after the fact.)

Apparently the department assumes we'll outrun the storm. After oil and gas production peak, their availability declines, by definition. No public policy or private enterprise can change that. Yet the draft plan makes no provisions for declining oil and gas availability and no warnings about the impacts of ever-higher prices that crimped supply is likely to bring. In fact, in an apparent contradiction, the department expects Vermonters to drive more total miles in the future. True, we are collectively driving about twice as far each year as in 1980, but the trend peaked in 2003. Total vehicle miles have been declining as gasoline prices have marched upwards, according to figures in the plan.

EDIT

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46269

[XemaSab]

1. Deep Survival

is a terrific book.