Energy politics in the Senate: why Merkley’s oil plan matters

[depakid]

This morning Sen. Jeff Merkley will introduce "America Over a Barrel: Solving Our Oil Vulnerability," a policy plan devoted to reducing oil use, at an event at http://www.americanprogress.org/events/2010/06/oil.html">the Center for American Progress. I think it could make a big difference in the debate. To understand why, let's back up and have a look at where thing stand now on climate/energy legislation.

Last week I wrote about the top five things to watch as d-day for legislation approaches. Now three of them have happened. The Murkowski resolution was voted down, but by a small enough margin that it didn't determine things one way or the other. Reid met with the Senate committee chairs, but but there were intractable disagreements and no decisions were made. Lugar introduced his bill, and Lindsey Graham jumped behind it, giving the "energy-only" forces a big push. Obama's still making the right noises about "comprehensive" legislation, but behind the scenes he and Rahm are putting together a back-up energy-only package. And public anger over the spill doesn't seem to be directing itself toward climate pollution.

Long story short, things are looking extremely grim for a cap on carbon. (The New York Times' John Broder says: "probably not.") It's up to Reid to pull together a bill out of the many proposals now floating around. My guess is, he heard from Baucus and Bingaman last week that a cap-and-trade proposal can't pass. He's meeting with the full Dem caucus this week and he's likely to hear the same thing, at least from the "centrists" whose votes will make the difference. Right now Obama and the Dems badly need to do something to address the oil spill, and they no doubt fear that a carbon cap would just bog the bill down in gridlock. There is, in other words, virtually no significant political force pushing to include a carbon cap. Just, you know, environmentalists. Oh, and the voices of America's future generations as they cry out in judgment of our cowardice and myopia.

The question is: if Reid reverts to an energy-only bill as expected, where is he going to get his energy ideas?

More: http://www.grist.org/article/2010-06-14-energy-politics-in-the-senate-why-merkleys-oil-plan-matters/