NOAA - Scenarios For 2035

[hatrack]

From "Carbon Junkies" Scenario:

EDIT

Years 2009 to 2020In both developed and developing countries, the old economic systems continue to exploit energy in stimulating economic growth, and it is this traditional formula for increasing economic prosperity in a nation, particularly in developing countries with their rapidly industrializing economies, where the real sad story is told. Driven by supportive governmental policies (in developing new energy resources, opening up markets, and encouraging new consumer consumption) and an increasingly open global economy, consumers in developing countries purchase, quickly and with few hesitations, new homes and cars in a manner that mirrors—but on a somewhat larger scale—the economic development pathway of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Develpment (OECD) countries. Information technology continues to drive business innovation, and new heavy consumer products, like cars and appliances, are cheap and available due to global demand, the success of global trade agreements, and massive energy- and water-development investments.

The U.S. population strongly believes survival and then prosperity and happiness are a function of personal financial wealth, and that GDP growth should be the highest priority for policy makers. In 2009 and 2010, U.S. government efforts to stimulate the U.S. economy by helping to restore the credit markets and invest in infrastructure projects generally succeed and businesses begin to recover by the middle of 2010. The United States is wedded to free markets and individual entrepreneurship
and these forces help the U.S. economy recover.

But the economy never regains its dominance in the world as the world has changed. U.S. economic growth is relatively low for the scenario period: less than 1 percent for 2009, 1 percent for 2010, 2.5 percent for 2011, and ranging from 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent until 2030.With the U.S. economy never getting back to pre-recession levels, the federal government deficit grows significantly for the first 3 years of the scenario and then stays large through the year 2020. After reaching a level of 80 percent of GDP in 2010, U.S. national debt stays at that level for the rest of the scenario. A severe budget crisis exists at all levels of government and a number of programs have to be cut (particularly those related to the environment and energy) or curtailed (like Social Security).
The priorities for a long time are short-term—economic recovery and health care, not the environment and energy conservation.While there are growing requirements to limit emissions of CO2, policy measures are developed to expand low-cost supplies wherever they may be. No carbon taxes are imposed because of the potential impact to the U.S. economy, while large, centralized electricity generating plants are encouraged to keep up with demand. Energy demand overall grows in the United States from 2009 to 2035 by almost 40 percent, fueled by heavy industry using low-cost energy. But supply disruptions occur regularly and the United States experiences a series of brownouts. Efficiency measures are often taken to minimize the chances for disruption and to try and keep costs low, but total energy efficiency gains are quite small.

EDIT

Years 2021 to 2035

In response to the climate change effects and lack of mitigation efforts, fish stocks in Alaska are changing rapidly, and well-documented impacts of migrating marine species in many of the world’s fishing areas lead to conflicts between foreign-flag fishing vessels and national navies. On the coasts, the percentage of estuarine areas impaired rises to over 35 percent, and 70 percent of U.S. coastal rivers and bays are moderately to severely degraded by nutrient runoff. Coastal erosion is a significant issue in California and all along the Gulf Coast, and storm surges, hurricanes, and rising sea levels all contribute to significant damage to existing property. In “Carbon Junkies,” the coastal population in the United States continued to grow through 2015, but the increasing effects of bad weather and the changing coastal and water conditions convinced many that northern climates were better. The migration to the coasts effectively ceased by 2020, and the northern states saw an increase of 20 percent from 2020 to 2035.

EDIT

http://www.ppi.noaa.gov/PPI_Capabilities/Documents/Scenarios-5-28-09.pdf

[gateley]

1. Wow. K&R. nt

[XemaSab]

2. 2035?

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. This is the worst of the scenarios discussed

However, frankly, none of them are particularly rosy.

[n2doc]

4. Which means it is probably optimistic

Given Mankind's ability to stick its collective head in the sand and pretend nothing is going wrong.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. Huh? What was that?

I'm sorry, I was busy checking my FaceBook wall…