U.S. demand for gasoline should fall for good after '06 peak

[jpak]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/12/ap-us-demand-for-gasoline-should-fall-for-good-after-06-peak-/1


In an interesting twist on conventional wisdom, Associated Press energy writer Jonathan Fahey reports today that America's demand for gasoline has declined four years in a row and will not reach the 2006 level again, even when the economy fully recovers.


Further, Fahey quotes one energy expert as predicting that by 2030, America will use just 5.4 million barrels a day, the same as in 1969.

The reason:

Higher fuel economy standards for U.S. cars, beginning with the 2012 model.
A steady dropoff in commuting distances plus less driving from aging baby boomers.
The shift toward more cars running partially or entirely on electricity.
Higher gasoline prices as developing countries in Asia and the Middle East begin to use more oil.
The increased use of biofuels in gasoline.
A shift from SUVs beginning in 2004 that has saved America $15 billion on gasoline this year.
Fahey notes that America will continue to burn more gasoline than any other country, both in total and per capita for decades to come. He also cautions that if the U.S. economy booms and global oil prices fall, demand for gasoline could rise.

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[Terry in Austin]

1. It's not the supply that's peaking, it's the demand, doncha know

The stats quoted may be plausible, but this looks like another round of the "peak demand" game that peak oil denialists have been trotting out in recent months.

I think it was Cambridge Energy Research that first cooked up this spin sometime last year. Damned clever bit of jiu-jitsu, actually, but not exactly honest. It's kind of a variant on sour grapes: "We're running low on grapes, but you know, I never liked grapes that much anyway."

It glosses over the stubborn fact that no matter how much we expect to ease back on oil use, it won't be enough to avoid a chronic shortfall as supplies decline.

[NickB79]

2. More for the Chinese and Indians to burn

There are 2 billion people in Asia chomping at the bit to live a USA-Brand lifestyle, complete with personal motorized transportation.

It will be interesting to see if a drop in US oil demand will have any impact on global oil demand in the next 20 years.