So, Anybody Watching The Drought Monitor Lately? Crop Reports Are Awful.

[hatrack]

What's really arresting are the crop condition numbers for the Great Plains states.

Texas winter wheat - 77% poor or very poor condition
Oklahoma winter wheat - 68% poor or very poor condition
Colorado winter wheat - 65% poor or very poor condition
South Dakota winter wheat - 56% poor or very poor condition
Nebraska winter wheat - 51% poor or very poor condition
Kansas winter wheat - 50% poor or very poor condition

Texas sorghum - 40% poor or very poor condition
South Dakota oats - 39% poor or very poor condition
South Dakota spring wheat - 39% poor or very poor
Oklahoma cotton - 37% poor or very poor
Texas cotton - 37% poor or very poor.

From the Monitor:

EDIT

The Plains and Midwest: Widespread heavy rainfall ended dryness in parts of northern and east-central Missouri, and improved conditions to D0 in northwestern parts of the state. Weekly totals of 3 to 6 inches were common in these regions. Meanwhile, fairly widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 4 inches abetted improvement to D0 across northwestern Arkansas and to D1 in extreme northeastern Texas and adjacent Oklahoma.

Isolated heavy rains led to small areas of improvement in other parts of the Plains and Midwest, and scattered moderate totals kept conditions unchanged in sections of South Dakota and the northern half of Nebraska. Also, a re-assessment of the affects from last week’s inundating rainfall in coastal southeastern Texas led to improvements to D2 near the immediate coastline. Unfortunately, relatively dry conditions elsewhere led to broad areas of dryness expansion and drought deterioration. Growing moisture deficits prompted the expansion of D0 conditions into the northwestern Great Lakes region, and through a broad area extending from eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota southward through much of Iowa and the eastern sections of Nebraska and Kansas. D0 also encroached into northern Arkansas and southeastern Missouri. Meanwhile, D1 to D2 classifications expanded in central South Dakota and Nebraska, west-central Missouri and adjacent Kansas, part of southeastern Oklahoma and northeastern Texas, and broad sections of central and western Texas while D3 conditions expanded to include southwestern Kansas, east-central and northeastern Colorado, parts of south-central and southwestern Nebraska, and north-central South Dakota.

EDIT

West: Similar to areas farther east, isolated heavy rains led to small areas of drought improvement, but dryness persisted or deteriorated in a vast majority of the Rockies and Southwest. In response to increasing short-term moisture deficits and high to extreme fire danger, D0 conditions expanded in part of far western Wyoming, and conditions deteriorated to D1 or D2 in several parts of the remainder of Wyoming and in central and north-central sections of Colorado. Early this week, more than 80 percent of rangelands across Arizona and New Mexico were in poor or very poor conditions, as was 66 percent of New Mexico sorghum. Through June 12, 2006, one-year precipitation totals were under 50 percent of normal across large sections of central and southwestern Arizona.

EDIT

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[MuseRider]

1. The sky is hazy with dust

here. We in Eastern Kansas are about 4 inches low for the year and it is starting to hurt. It has been so much worse in the Western part of the state. It is always scary when this starts up. The crop reports are not good.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. But Ann Coulter said we didn't have to worry about global warming

When we liberals discussed water shortages, she told us it would rain! Apparently she hasn't been to the midwest/south to scare the clouds into weeping.

[hatrack]

3. If I were a cloud confronted with Mann Coulter, I'd just flee . . .

And that would only make matters worse.

[hfojvt]

4. the weatherman showed that map the other day

I was surprised, because, according to my mom, they are bone dry in the Minneapolis area.

I also wonder how much of our "prosperity" is tied to agricultural production. IIRC 2001 was a dry year too.

[phantom power]

5. Maslow's hierarchy applies.

A society that can't feed it's citizens isn't prospering. Any contrary claims involving GDP or the Dow are, at that point, irrelevent.

[amandabeech]

14. On a dollar basis, we already import as much food as we export.

All those off-season imports from the Southern Hemisphere, Central America and Mexico costs lots.

Perhaps prices will go high enough so that the Mexican farmers now here will be able to go back to Mexico and farm again.

[cliss]

6. Thanks for posting.

I was not aware of this. Bad news. Really bad news. It means that crop prices are going up. In addition, gas prices have gone up. Agriculture is completely dependent on petroleum for its existence, so this is going to push food prices much higher.

[hatrack]

7. Thanks for tuning in - funny how most people don't think about food

Except if Rachel Ray is showing them where to get it.

I'm reminded of a story (perhaps apocryphal) about the famous economist who visited a farm-state audience and told them that agriculture didn't really matter, since it only accounted for about 4 or 5% or GDP.

The story goes that he was greated by stunned silence, followed by a loud stage whisper of "So what are we supposed to eat, then?"

[NNadir]

8. Gee. I hope this doesn't affect my plan to buy a flex fuel Chevy Tahoe.

I was planning on hauling lots of grain with it to the ethanol reactors springing up everywhere.

[hankthecrank]

9. If you think you predict prices on crops try grain futures market

Yea try that. You see how how much prices change and how crops from all over change the price.

How much of $5.oo box of cereal is from bushel of grain (not much)

USDA buys grain when there is extra and throws it back on the market when it to high.

[Boomer]

11. "Extra" grain may be a thing of the past

We're rapidly approaching the limits of arable land, especially since that land is itself shrinking due to growing desertification.

Our crop yields are failing at a time when world food reserves are lower than they've been in years, if not decades.

And human population continues to grow.

Not a pretty picture for the future...

[NNadir]

10. Here it is:

[hankthecrank]

12. So if you think there are going to be shortages buy grain futures

So if you are so sure the price is going up by grain futures

Guess you will find out how much you know about it!!!!

One the grain silo company I drive by just finished getting rid of their outside pile of corn. They pile the extra outside when there is no room in the inside silo. Farmers don't sell the fall crop in the fall (bad because low prices)

USDA puts out crop reports on how much is expected in the fall (watch those)

World wide crops affects the price.

With global warming the drought is going to get worse and whats predicted to come show more drought in the corn belt not what you show


But we are still building on good crop land like there is endless supply
We can't keep that up if you want to feed people. How much food does a house with 1 acre of ground grow (not much) mostly grass

England does a better job of protecting their crop land than we do

Only idiot would take food off the land and than not put the results back to feed the soil how long can that go on. When we get more people they take more of the food but don't put the manure back to feed the soil!

Again how much of bushel of grain is in a $5.00 box of cereal not much

[hankthecrank]

13. What I've seen of the area that going to be hit hard should worry you more

The forecast for effects of global warming hit more of the corn belt than what your map shows.