U.S. Solar prices to start decline? (April price survey)

[skids]

...or to be precise, is the decline in manufacturing cost of solar finally overtaking monetary inflation?

Solarbuzz seems cautiously optimistic:

In terms of the US market, stability in the index has been evident since reaching a peak. However, this month there has been a small drop of one cent per watt. This is the first drop in the US index since May 2004. Within this data, it should be noted that some product lines are still showing net increases in retail price.

After the significant drop in the European index in February 2007, this index has recorded little movement since that time. The European index does not carry as wide a market representation in the survey as the US retailers.

The one thing Solarbuzz has learnt over the past 7 years is that characterizing the "real" market movements requires analysis by a wide range of research approaches. Over the short term (i.e. 3 months or less), the online survey results often accord with independent research, but sometimes they do not. Of course, one of the checks on module prices is also what is happening at what the industry calls "the factory gate" - this is the price charged by module manufacturers at their first point of sale.

So, where does this leave the current big picture? In Europe, there has been clearer evidence of price declines from the May 2004 peak. In the US market, one month result is not enough to conclude any other than the fact that US retail pricing overall is still stable near its current peak. Certainly, it would still be premature to conclude that the US index will not yet reach a level higher than that first achieved in November. At the same time, the November result may represent the peak. It is going the depend on the weighting of individual product lines in the overall result, given the diversity of price direction by company line at the present time.

http://www.solarbuzz.com/Moduleprices.htm

And for those looking for the bargains:

http://www.ecobusinesslinks.com/solar_panels.htm

[Auggie]

1. One would think prices would certainly decline if there was some kind of

national or state-wide standard to require most/all new home and office construction include some kind of solar installation. Mass production almost always leads to lower unit pricing. No doubt oil and gas lobbies would (or are already) fighting such a standard.

But that is encouraging news.

[Mojorabbit]

2. I hope so

I bought a solar freezer last year and it was expensive when all was done and set up.

[NNadir]

3. On the other hand, solarbuzz's *front* page shows the price of solar *energy*

to be rising.

I quote as of this writing: "21.45 cents per kWh, Up 0.07 c/kWh.

A solar "watt" is not a unit of energy, it's a unit of power. A solar cell operating above the artic circle in winter produces zero power, for instance. If Germany's climate were different, the peak power of its solar cells might mean something, but it doesn't. Germany's building 26 new coal plants.

Twenty. Six. New. Coal. Plants.

And Germany is a world leader in solar power..

This is more than double my electricity retail price, and for many other people in this country, nearly triple. Conclusion? "Still a toy for rich boys...."

www.solarbuzz.com

Maybe the cheap ass cells don't work so well. Or maybe all that soot from all the coal plants being built while we wait for the solar nirvana is reducing the solar flux.

It is interesting to note that the recent price increases were all due to shortages in starting materials, and lack of capacity. This is triply startling that the entire production capacity on the entire planet is just about enough to prevent 3 or 4 new gas plants from being built, and solar energy offers little prospect of replacing the tens of thousands of such plants operating already. I wish this were not true, but it is.

Solar energy, in spite of all the wishful thinking and posturing, is still a tempest in a teapot. I predict five years from now we'll still be looking for the first exajoule per year from solar energy, and people will still be whining about how prices will fall and soon as the industry gets real. I make this prediction based on what was being said 5 years ago.

[Javaman]

6. Recent interview in Texas about the new "clean" coal power plants...

Reporter: So I understand that this power plant is going to be clean coal burning?

power plant rep: you got that right, yes siree! this here plant runs on solar power!!!

[NNadir]

8. A solar plant cannot do what a coal plant does.

A solar plant can displace gas, but not coal.

However the solar industry is a failure at creating an opportunity to phase out gas. It's not even close. Not one gas plant on this planet has been cancelled because of competition from solar power, and not one has been shut.

That tells you all you need to know.

[Javaman]

9. Sigh, you missed the joke.

:eyes:

[jpak]

4. Does this mean the global polySi bottleneck has been overcome???

Looks like it (fingers crossed) - now PV module prices can continue their historic decline...

:)

[skids]

5. Yeah, knock on wood...

...it looks like the "si crunch" has been priced in now.

[NNadir]

7. Knock on what wood?

Isn't the plan to burn all the wood in pellet stoves and power plants?

[Javaman]

10. soylet wood!!!

It's humans!!!!