Report: Civil war most likely outcome in Iraq

[acmavm]

http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/0906/dailyUpdate.html
Major British institute says breakup of Iraq is a likely scenario.

by Tom Regan | csmonitor.com

<snip>

While America's attention was focused last week on the Republican National Convention in New York, and the world was watching the hostage tragedy unfold in the small Russian town of Beslan, the prestigious British Royal Institute of International Affairs (known as Chatham House) issued a report saying a major civil war that would destablize the entire Middle East region is the mostly likely outcome for Iraq if current conditions continue. Reuters reported Friday that the report said the best outcome Iraq can hope for is "to muddle through an 18-month political transition that began when Washington formally handed over sovereignty on June 28."

The Los Angeles Times reports that the fragmentation of Iraq is the "default scenario" in the eyes of the Chatham House team.

'Under this scenario,' the report says, 'Kurdish separatism and Shia assertiveness work against a smooth transition to elections, while the Sunni Arab minority remains on the offensive and engaged in resistance. Antipathy to the US presence grows, not so much in a unified Iraqi nationalist backlash, but rather in a fragmented manner that could presage civil war if the US cuts and runs,' it says. 'Even if the US forces try to hold out and prop up the central authority, it may still lose control.'

<snip>

Finally, freelance writer Yusuf Al-Khabbaz, writing in Media Monitor Networks, looks at the occupation and rebuilding of Japan 60 years ago, and the current day occupation and attempted rebuilding of Iraq, and finds the two events have little in common, despite what politicians may claim. (For instance, he says, Japanese offered little or no resistance to American soldiers, and "by most accounts not a single one of the 150,000 American soldiers in the occupying forces was attacked and killed by Japanese citizens.") If Iraq is to be rebuilt, Mr. Al Khabbaz says, the successful rebuilding of Japan cannot serve as a model because of significant differences in the two occupations.

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[amber dog democrat]

1. and like Vietnam

we will be on the side of the puppet government - and lose again.

[olddem43]

2. Wasn't Japan mostly a mono-cultural society?

And of course, we left the Emperor in place.

[WMliberal]

3. every reader of doonesbury has known this for months

my guess is it'll REALLY commence around the time of their first "election"