Not yet a civil war
By Danny Rubinstein
With each passing day, there are increased signs that the general elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council - the parliament of the Palestinian Authority - will not be held on schedule. The election was set for the end of January, three and a half months from now, and the Palestinian government is currently in great tumult. If the election is put off yet again (the latest postponement was this past July), the current council, elected nearly 10 years ago, will continue to serve. It fails to reflect the considerable political changes that have taken place since then. This means the functioning of the Palestinian Authority will continue to deteriorate, and there will be fewer chances to renew the diplomatic process. The alternative of holding the elections on schedule is liable to be no less terrible, because Hamas has a good chance of emerging victorious. What's to be done?
The Palestinian political discourse has in recent days become especially violent. It is not yet a civil war, but the two sides - the Palestinian Authority (and the governing party, the Fatah movement) and, opposite it, Hamas - have stepped up their interfactional conflict, both in words and in deeds. In spite of their declarations that the violence between them has been halted, it may be assumed that the violent incidents will continue. They reached a peak in Gaza last weekend when Hamas operatives kidnapped the high-ranking officer Sami Ajur, deputy commander of the general intelligence service, shot him in the legs and threw him into the street. In response, general intelligence members (who masqueraded as an organization called "The Farouk Omar Ibn al-Khattab Brigades") in the West Bank kidnapped Dr. Riad Abdel Karim al-Raz, head of the engineering department at A-Najah University. They fired their way into his home in Tul Karm and forced him to go with them. Using the same method, and on the same day, Hassan al-Saffi, a member of the Bethlehem city council, and clergyman Abdel-Nasser Abu-Hamis of Jenin, were also kidnapped. An attempt was made to kidnap a Hebron resident as well. All four are known to be Hamas activists, and the kidnappers held the three men for several hours before releasing them. In a press release, the kidnappers reported that this was a warning to the Hamas movement that its members were doing harm to the rule of law and causing damage to the Palestinian national interest.
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The Palestinian Authority evidently has a clear intention to escalate the struggle against Hamas. High-ranking officials are seeking to enforce law and order in Gaza. The whole world is demanding it. Moreover, Fatah is deeply concerned that Hamas will win the parliamentary elections. There have been numerous indications of this, including the outcome of the recent elections to local councils in the West Bank. Israel and the U.S. are pressuring Mahmoud Abbas to keep Hamas from taking part in the elections. Egypt fears a Hamas victory as well.
The easiest way to prevent the Hamas victory is to postpone the election. Abbas and his associates do not speak about it in public, as it is not seemly to appear to be preventing an important democratic step. This was the case last July, as well, when Abbas announced a postponement of the election at the last minute. Hamas fully understands what is going on, and its message to the Palestinian Authority is clear: If you try to hold elections without us, we will not permit them to be held.
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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/633541.html
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