I totally disagree with the statement that the price to pay for the return of those two soldiers is a relatively low one, but I thought I'd post this to get reactions to what's said in the article...
Out of the plethora of diplomatic-security issues keeping Prime Minister Ehud Olmert busy these days, the discussions on the freeing of the two IDF soldiers held by Hezbollah appear to be the most promising. The price being demanded for the the return of Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser is not impossibly high, and the chances that the deal can be done are reasonable. What is no less important, is that a deal could be struck in a relatively short period of time, perhaps to the point of bringing to an "end" the Lebanese affair at a date near the second anniversary of the rushed decision to go to war.
As his cabinet ceased to function, and while he waits for the crucial cross-examination of Morris Talansky in court next month, bringing home the two soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah appears to be a goal that can be achieved, from Olmert's point of view. The same cannot be said right now about a deal with Hamas for Gilad Shalit, or about the renewed talks with Syria, and certainly not about a final-status agreement with the Palestinian Authority.
The parameters of the Goldwasser-Regev deal were laid out in the media a month ago: the release of Nassim Nasar, a Lebanese man convicted of espionage, after he served out his sentence (this took place on June 1); the return of the four Hezbollah men captured during the Second Lebanon War; and the release of the Nahariya killer, Samir Kuntar. Even though it is not said explicitly or officially, it is easy to understand that this price is relatively low, and that both sides recognize that it is not a deal that involves the freeing of living soldiers in exchange for the six Lebanese. The Achilles heel of the deal is Kuntar, whom Israel insisted on keeping in prison as a bargaining chip for information on the fate of the missing navigator Ron Arad - what used to be referred to as the second part of the 2004 deal that led to the release of Elhanan Tennenbaum.
Yedioth Aharonoth reported Saturday that Olmert will meet Monday with the family of Ron Arad to discuss with them his thinking about the deal that is developing - which would be tantamount to Israel giving up on resolving the Arad mystery. The leak appears to be an attempt to prepare public opinion ahead of a deal that would include Kuntar's release. However, it seems that at the PM's Bureau they forgot to coordinate the details with the family, which learned about the meeting with Olmert through the article in Yedioth. In any case, the cost in public opinion will not be low: The Arad family will reiterate its argument that Ron was abandoned by the state - but this is a price that Olmert seems willing to pay.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/992987.html