Talks Signal Mideast Shift

[groovedaddy]

BEIRUT, Lebanon — After years of escalating tensions and bloodshed, the talk in the Middle East is suddenly about talking. The shift is still relatively subtle, but hints of a new approach in the waning months of the Bush administration are fueling hopes of at least short-term stability for the first time since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Much is happening, adding up not to any great diplomatic breakthrough, but to a distinct change in direction. Syria is being welcomed out of isolation by Europe and is holding indirect talks with Israel. Lebanon has formed a new government. Israel has cut deals with Hamas (a cease-fire) and Hezbollah (a prisoner exchange).

On Wednesday, the United States agreed to send a high-ranking diplomat to attend talks with Iran over its nuclear program, and was considering establishing a diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time since the 1979 revolution and hostage crisis.

“The overall picture is moving in the direction of cooling the political atmosphere,” said Muhammad al-Rumaihi, a former government adviser in Kuwait and the editor of Awan, an independent daily newspaper there.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/18/world/middleeast/18mideast.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

[calimary]

1. I suspect that's because the whole world knows the bush era is ending, and

they can get back to business the way it used to be done - and the way it SHOULD have been done all along. They're just jumping the gun here, not waiting around til bush actually leaves. To them, he's gone already. And they're moving on in spite of him, and without him. Doesn't surprise me a bit that the methods he rejected are now starting to flower again - despite what he tried to do to kill them off. You just aren't a factor anymore, george. Nobody gives a fuck what you want or how you want it done. As someone you know well once said, george, "who cares what you think?" And it's all the sweeter that it's starting to happen while his regime is still gasping for breath and wheezing toward the finish line. NOBODY CARES ABOUT YOU ANYMORE, george. You're SO yesterday. Wish you'd never blighted our landscape in the first place. It's like - the cat's not even away yet and the mice will play already.

:nopity:

[ellenfl]

2. yeah, but guess who'll take credit for this turn-around.

i would rather it happened AFTER dubya is gone . . . except that he will then say he laid the groundwork.

we're not going to win this one, imo. dubya will have his positive legacy.

ellen fl

[LeftishBrit]

3. Well, I don't like the bastard taking credit for anything at all...

but any hope for peace in the Middle East is far more important than who takes the credit.

I'm REALLY hoping something will come of all this!

[calimary]

4. Well, I'm not going to let him just steal it without putting up a fight.

I guess until each of us has been hired by Jon Stewart or Phil Griffin or somebody, we'll have to "broadcast" the truth to our friends and associates by word of mouth and other civilian efforts. But I'm not gonna let that one go by, and become in effect a stand-alone fact just because nobody spoke up and refuted it.

[Scurrilous]

5. Israel's slap in the face from America

<snip>

"Israel gives the impression that it was completely unprepared for the recent dramatic switch in American policy toward Iran. The Bush administration did not consult with Israel before deciding to add a senior American diplomat to the talks the Europeans are conducting with the Iranians, nor did Washington inform Jerusalem of its intentions to open an interests section in Tehran. The Prime Minister's Bureau received word of America's new policy almost at the last minute, just in order to ensure that Israel would not be taken totally by surprise. If clandestine diplomatic feelers between Washington and Tehran preceded the announcement, Israel was left completely in the dark as to their existence.

The American "detente" with Iran has one obvious consequence: As long as the diplomatic game continues, there is not the slightest chance in the world of any aggressive action being taken against Iran's nuclear program. Which means no bombing of nuclear facilities. And no naval blockade and no prevention of commercial flights from Iran, as Israel has proposed. If even a minor-ranking American diplomat is posted in Tehran, to ostensibly "speak with the people," the Iranian regime will enjoy total immunity.

Israeli leaders are still hoping that all is not lost, that America is merely making a strategic move here, that Washington is simply dangling a bit of diplomatic bait that will be doomed to fail but which can pave the way for a military strike. But all that is simply wishful thinking. The American public has no stomach today for an additional war and its army opposes the idea of opening up a "third front" in Iran, after Afghanistan and Iraq.

The average American is much more concerned about spiraling gasoline prices than about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Of all the steps U.S. President George W. Bush has undertaken to solve his country's energy crisis, the rapprochement with Iran has emerged as the most effective of all. At a cost of only one airline ticket for William J. Burns, the U.S. State Department's third-ranking official, the administration in Washington achieved an almost-immediate 12-percent drop in oil prices.

Even as early as last autumn, signs Washington was softening its position could already be observed. American officials have clarified to their Israeli counterparts and to other officials in Jerusalem that any idea of a military move against Iran is now history. They have enthusiastically told the Israelis that they have chosen the path of dialogue and that this option is also good for Israel. Even if Iran gets the nuclear bomb, an American embassy in Tehran will be the best guarantee of stability and tranquility in the region."

more

[notfullofit]

6. And we all know

'an American embassy in Tehran will be the best guarantee of stability and tranquility in the region."'

what happened to the last American embassy in Tehran .