ANALYSIS / Ahmadinejad win actually preferable for Israel

[azurnoir]

That is probably what happened at the beginning of last week, when Israeli intelligence - like every other pundit in the region - did not foresee that the moderate pro-Western alliance would actually defeat Hezbollah in the Lebanese election.
Advertisement
And if that was the case in Lebanon, it's all the more so in Iran: 1,000 kilometers from us, over 70 million inhabitants, 46 million voters and a process in which certain aspects, at least, are surprising in their openness. When it comes to Iran, there is no escaping the old cliche about the elephant and the Jewish problem. And in this case, paradoxically, it seems that from Israel's point of view the victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is actually preferable. Not only because "better the devil you know," but because the victory of the pro-reform candidate will paste an attractive mask on the face of Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Western experts now agree that even during the tenure of moderate president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the nuclear program continued to advance. And in any case, the person who really decides on the nuclear issue is not the president but the spiritual leader. One of the president's advisers even made it clear recently, in an interview with Reuters, that the spiritual leader will continue to shape his country's nuclear policy, regardless of the election results.

Ahmadinejad, with his Holocaust denial and his long series of provocations, drew most of the attention, but apparently had less influence on the nuclear program. There are even senior members of the Israeli defense establishment who share the public stance of former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy, who claimed that the Iranian president's behavior, perceived in the West as quasi-lunatic, advanced Israel's security interests.

<snip>

Barak, who has managed for two months to restrain himself and be forgiving toward the prime minister, explained this week to members of the Council for Peace and Security that Israel must welcome and participate in efforts for a regional agreement, and that it still enjoys profound American support on security matters.

If Netanyahu decides to surprise everyone and begin significant diplomatic negotiations with the Palestinians, and mainly with the Syrians, he will find not only Barak at his side, but the general staff of the Israel Defense Forces as well. The professional opinion of the general staff is quite clear, and was conveyed to the prime minister when he assumed the position: The threats against Israel are worrisome, but at the present time specifically, opportunities are being created as well. There is a short time frame in which the interests of Israel and the moderate Arab countries in the region are coalescing, and may even enable the promotion of peace initiatives.

Now it is Israel that must decide where its real security interest lies, and act accordingly.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092587.html
___________________________________________________

The article covers a number of topics related to Israeli security

[madeline_con]

1. "Now it is Israel that must decide ..."

They'll fuck up the process by launching another attack on innocent civilians.

[aquart]

2. "The Jewish problem"?

But that's so easy to solve, isn't it?

[GoesTo11]

3. Good analysis

I heard Mousavi's wife on NPR and she said Iran should be ready to have good relations with every country in the world ... except Israel. From Israel's perspective, the mullah-driven Iran will remain an enemy so it may as well be an incompetent enemy. For life inside Iran, there are other considerations. If the mullahs are somehow overthrown, one can imagine governments there that are vastly superior for both Iranian domestic issues and for the cause of peace. Then competence would become an unambiguous plus.

[shira]

4. so the Iranian supreme leadership rigged the election bigtime and gave the Iranian voters

a big F.U., risking mass internal chaos (revolution).

very rational....good show guys!

yeah, they can probably be trusted with nukes.

yawn.

so what's on TV now? cooking network....yum, summertime sweets and deserts!

[Sezu]

6. WITH A LIL HELP FROM HAMAS

"The most important thing that I believe people outside of Iran should be aware of," the young man went on, "is the participation of Palestinian forces in these riots."

Another protester, who spoke as he carried a kitchen knife in one hand and a stone in the other, also cited the presence of Hamas in Teheran.

On Monday, he said, "my brother had his ribs beaten in by those Palestinian animals. Taking our people's money is not enough, they are thirsty for our blood too."

It was ironic, this man said, that the victorious Ahmadinejad "tells us to pray for the young Palestinians, suffering at the hands of Israel." His hope, he added, was that Israel would "come to its senses" and ruthlessly deal with the Palestinians.

When asked if these militia fighters could have been mistaken for Lebanese Shi'ites, sent by Hizbullah, he rejected the idea. "Ask anyone, they will tell you the same thing. They are out beating Iranians in the streets… The more we gave this arrogant race, the more they want… we will not let them push us around in our own country."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1245184848467&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[azurnoir]

7. Yep a couple of folks Tweeted JPost so bygod its the TRUTH

it could be it is very well know that Hamas is supported by Iran, but is apparent that the bigoted comment about arrogant Palestinians gives some a thrill so be it post it on thread here, seems JPost is pretty focused because they ask could it Hezbollah? But no at least according to one guy, but it seems "odd" that no one considers Iraqi Shia

Gosh just think if Palestinians in Gaza had been Tweeting during OLC then would that have been the TRUTH too or would that have depended on what they said LOL

[LeftishBrit]

5. I've heard this in so many forms

'Kinnock isn't really a socialist, and at least Thatcher speaks her mind'.

'There is no real difference between Gore and Bush.'

'It would be better to have Netanyahu than Livni as Prime Minister. Neither wants peace, and at least Netanyahu won't pretend about it.'

Etc.

Because obviously it's better to have nothing at all (or rank poison) than half a loaf; and a far-right extremist is preferable to an imperfect centrist. :sarcasm: Grrrr and sigh.

But of course we'll never find out what Mousavi would've been like. Ahmadinejad and his thugs and crooks have made sure of that. Another grrrr and another very deep sigh.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

12. I think you're wrong about Netanyahu not being preferable to Livni.

Unlike in the other two examples you cite, in the case of Kadima vs Likud there is the possibility of external pressure forcing the Israeli government's hand.

Neither Netanyahu nor Livni is ever going to make peace willingly - on the issue of the I/P conflict, Livni isn't just an imperfect centrist, she's hard right, like more than three quarters of the Knesset.

I think (although I admit I am not confident), that Obama is more likely to make peace over Netayahu's head than Livni's.

[HamdenRice]

8. IIRC on DemocracyNow-- a moderate Iranian winning was called the "nightmare scenario" by Israelis

I don't have time to track down the link but iirc, at a defense and intelligence planning meeting with the Bush administration last fall, the Israelis called the election of a moderate reformer in Iran their "nightmare scenario" or maybe it was "doomsday scenario" because it would mean there would be zero American or international support for military action against Tehran.

Anyone else catch that?

This makes it hard for me to believe the Israelis have anything to do with the protests in Iran. It is quite clear that they much prefer Ahmadinejad.

[shira]

9. like Israel, Obama doesn't see any sig. difference between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1093610.html

Nukes in the hands of religious fanatics will happen with either one winning the Presidency. The hope was that the more "moderate" Mousavi would be less a threat than Ahmadinejad, and Obama knows as well as Israel that putting a gentler face on nasty extremism would probably do more harm than good.

[ConsAreLiars]

10. There are already nukes in the hands

of fanatics who believe they are dog's chosen people and that all others are so inferior to them that the mass murder of 1000's of the non-believers is always justifiable. You should recognize that belief system. Not much to do with religion or ethnicity. It's a mindset that led to the mass slaughter of Iraqis and Indochinese, and is being repeated in the middle east. Fanatics, cowards, hatemongers, psychopaths who will lie and spin endlessly to justify every horror and every slaughter and every bit of suffering they cause. You certainly know that mindset and that type.

[shira]

11. what ugly bigoted drivel.....save it for Stormfront, okay?

tip:

and next time, use 'zionists' rather than superior 'chosen' people. That was Rev. Wright's mistake recently.

[ConsAreLiars]

13. Perhaps I was not clear enough.

Every state engaged in conquest or or oppression does so by inculcating the belief in its population that "the other" is less than human, using some sort of appeal to a belief in their moral superiority in order to "justify" the slaughters. Usually, but not necessarily, based in religion or tribalism. Manifest Destiny, White Man's Burden, fighting godless communism, arguing that slaves are Children of Ham, spreading dog's word to the savages, and so on, and so on.

This is no less true in Israel. Or do you really believe that that sort of belief in their moral superiority (and that Palestinians are less-than-human and just rabid mad dogs) is absent or insignificant in Israeli political life? If you do doubt it, I encourage you to re-read the posts you and those who share your views have posted in this forum. Or better, have someone read them to you out loud. If you have a good heart, which I believe, you might be shocked by what you hear if you listen.


(As a P.S.: I know it will be a hard habit for you to break, but your "arguments" defending the mass murders of Palestinians might improve slightly if you didn't just call people Nazis so often.)

[shira]

14. nope, that just doesn't work

you need to realize that some who serve in the IDF and IAF aren't Jooz (like Bedouins, Druze, Muslims who attain to high rankings). Think they buy into this "de-humanization" and superiority too?

Number of Muslim, Christian Arab volunteers in IDF growing
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=520911&contrassID=1&subContrassID=5&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

Arab Muslim wants to join IAF
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/1,7340,L-3193604,00.html

Number of Israeli Arab IDF recruits dramatically increases in 2008
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1027745.html

Hmmm...turns your view upside down, doesn't it?

Try again.

ps
you must have me confused with someone else regarding the Nazi labels.

[ConsAreLiars]

16. ???

What a totally irrelevant reply.

[shira]

17. the point is, it's difficult for Jews in the IDF to dehumanize "inferior" Pal'ns when many...

...within IDF ranks are basically Palestinians themselves.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Lakrosse]

15. Protocols of the Elders of Israel

seriously, get a new game. This one is sad attempt to blame the Jews.

[ohio2007]

19. This election outcome pleases the theocracy in Iran.

But what does the theocracy have to do with Iranian elections anyway