By HUSSEIN AGHA and ROBERT MALLEY
Published: December 14, 2010Amid speculation over how Israelis and Palestinians might resume their talks, a reality is taking hold: The point is fast approaching where negotiations between the two will be, for all practical purposes and for the foreseeable future, over. As emissaries are dispatched and ideas explored, discussions could well carry on. But they will have lost all life, energy or sense of purpose.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might not have been wholeheartedly committed to a peace deal with the Palestinians, but upon taking office, several factors tugged him in that direction. He worried about U.S. and regional pressure; had concerns about his own public opinion; was unsure about how Palestinians would react to a prolonged impasse.
He imagined that with creative ideas he might sway Mahmoud Abbas to move in directions the Palestinian leader had not foreseen. Plus, history beckoned, as Netanyahu caught a glimpse of himself as the man who finally would bring recognition and security to Israel.
Over the past two years, the fears have receded and the promise has faded. Somewhat to his own surprise, Netanyahu resisted America’s demands, called President Obama’s bluff and came out none the weaker.
Discontent from Arab regimes is real but flimsy; their preoccupations focused more on perpetuating their rule and thwarting Iran. A combination of Israeli military incursions and security measures, heightened cooperation with Palestinian security services and West Bank fatigue dramatically lowered the threat of a new uprising or even of significant violence. The impasse in peace talks did not prompt divided Palestinians to reunite, making plain that for now they are more interested in combating each other than fighting Israel.
Netanyahu also faces little to no pressure from a domestic opinion — let alone his core constituency — wholly disenchanted by and indifferent to the peace process. Of his initial worries, some never manifested themselves; some the prime minister either conquered or stared down; others he’s learned to live with. At times he might still fashion himself a momentous leader, but prospects of making history have become more uncertain as the perils of current politics have grown increasingly real.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/opinion/15iht-edmalley15.html Hussein Agha is a senior associate member of St. Antony’s College, Oxford, and the author, with A.S. Khalidi, of “A Framework for a Palestinian National Security Doctrine.” Robert Malley is Middle East and North Africa program director at the International Crisis Group.
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