10/8 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 323 EV, 99% WIN PROB, 51.18% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

Electoral-vote.com did not retain all the Zogby state poll updates from yesterday. The Election Model did.

The Election Model assumes Kerry will get 60% of the undecided/other votes (base case). It runs 5000 simulated elections and calculates Kerry's average EV (323) and win probability 98.7%.

That accounts for the difference between Electoral-vote.com (280 EV) and the Election Model (323 EV).

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Here's my worst case scenario map

Where we lose both Ohio and Florida. But we all know THAT'S not going to happen.

I think it is looking VERY good.

[TruthIsAll]

5. It could be worse. Think Diebold.

tia

[Chichiri]

6. How did you create that map? (n/t)

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. Go to link and create your own. I uploaded mine to my website.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[PermanentRevolution]

7. You're forgetting the Colorado referendum...

4 points for Kerry, if it passes and survives legal challenges. 273-265.

[kevin881]

2. bump :)

[Demi_Babe]

3. couldn't CO give one vote to Kerry to change everything...hummmmm???

[Goldom]

4. The propoganda here is

-No one will care about us then cause we're just 1 vote
-Oh yeah and it was California's idea.

Bunch of trash. It wouldn't be just one vote, not if someone won by more than that. If the races really are that close, we shouldn't be giving 100% EV to one side anyway, as far as I can figure. I don't know about the CA-meme, but I'd bet my life it's dubious at best. Even all the liberals I know here are against 36. I don't know why they can't see how much the EV system needs reform..

[greekspeak]

8. Again, I am so impressed with your stats

Thank you for striving to come up with such a fine body of work.

[StlMo]

9. Very good news!

:dem:

[TruthIsAll]

10. Kick for PM crowd

tia