interesting statistics from 2000

[onenote]

I was looking over some of the 2000 voting results by various demographics. A couple concerned me: Gore won 90 percent of the African American vote. That's going to be hard to top (so the hope becomes higher turnout, a topic on which I've seen mixed predictions). Also, Gore won the Hispanic vote by a relatively comfortable margin, so that may not be an area where a lot of additional pickup is available (although hopefully the number of Hispanic voters will increase).

But the one that caught my eye was this: Bush got 11% of the voters who idenitified themselves as Democrats, while Gore only got 8 percent of the voters who identified themselves as repubs. While its hard to figure because of changes in party affiliation over the past four years, it certainly seems that a greater number of republicans may be feeling uncomfortable with Bush, particularly old-style Repubs of the Chanee, Jeffords, etc. school.

onenote

[gatorboy]

1. On top of that, you have to weigh in the Muslim vote.

In 2000, Bush recieved 40+% of their vote. This year I can guarantee he won't get a fraction of that....

[klook]

5. That's right. They didn't like Lieberman.

I have a feeling most of them don't like Bush this year.

[highnooner]

2. Bush also got the large majority of....

Muslim voters. I think that dynamic has changed. BTW, does anyone know how many voters there are who are Muslim?

[gatorboy]

3. Dunno. But I thought, from a Times chart I've seen,

there were roughly 2.2+ million Muslims in the US. That's gonna be alot of vote Bush will not win this year....

[Ivote]

4. where are the buchanan votes going

remember the ballots from west palm that should have gone to Gore if the ballott would have been printed correctly

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. The 90 percent of the African American vote is not consistent by state

I just found that out today. Check out the link.
In Virginia and Missouri, 14% of blacks voted for shrub, while in Louisiana, only 6% did.
Very interesting.

http://216.239.41.104/search?q=cache:8Z-PrsclD2UJ:www.jointcenter.org/selpaper/pdffiles/blackvot/2000/BlackVote2000.pdf

[WI_DEM]

8. very interesting statistics

Gore received overall 90% of AA vote compared to Clinton who got 84% in 1996, and the AA vote represented 18.9% of Gore's popular vote compared to 17.1% of Clinton's. Also the Latino vote was 9.6% of Gore's popular vote compared to 7.3% for Clinton in '96. Clearly the minority vote won the popular vote for Gore in 2000. I hope they are equally motivated for Kerry this year.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. I have some hunches about the discrepancies

I'm thinking Catholics have something to do with Louisiana being so 'smart'. :)

[Julien Sorel]

7. Donna Brazile is a force at turning out the black vote.

Kerry has no one like her in his campaign. He got Jesse Jackson to help some, but Jesse doesn't have the pull he once did, particularly with younger blacks who barely know who he is, plus he hasn't seemed too visible since the announcement he was signing on.

Sharpton seems to have disappeared, which is a plus and a minus. I hope he's still registering voters. Kerry could also have tapped him for some of his one liners, at which he is unsurpassed.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Every reply so far has ignored that party betrayal number

Something I've tried to emphasize here lately. A 50/50 race was a very good indicator of party loyalty. The registration figures quoted on DU ignore that crossover trend without exception. A 1/1 registration figure will favor the GOP, although this year perhaps to a lesser extent than typical.