Too late to start with the Expectations Game: should've started last week!

[deckerd]

I noticed y'all waited about a week before starting the "expectations" thread. Too late. We're behind the curve. Most Americans are now expecting Bush to do as poorly, or worse, than he did last Thursday.

Thanks to Democratic activists being overconfident, we gave Bush a tremendous edge going into this debate that he wouldn't have had otherwise.

That said, it's not too late to begin managing expectations post-debate.

First of all, be prepared to modify your talking points to account for POST-DEBATE because nobody's gonna read what you have to say until after the debate, anyhow.

And secondly it's no joke. Some people act like it's an actual "game", it's not. Chances are Kerry will "lose" the debate because Bush has skillfully played the expectations game for the past week while y'all were laughing and backslapping about how great Kerry was and "oh yeah, sure, right, Bush will do better than he did last week. RIGHT."

Won't you look like a biscuit if he DOES? Talk about mismanaging media expectations. Oh I forgot, "the media is the enemy". Thanks, Dem_Strategist.

My position is (and I'm sticking to it):

* The facts of the matter are that Bush never lost a debate before last Thursday.
Clearly he had a bad performance.

* Bush is unflappable in a public setting. He's especially skillful at charming undecideds and soft Democrats, like Reagan was.

* Bush's forte is the town-hall format. This is a completely different setting where Kerry is at a fundamental disadvantage.

* Kerry is the underdog. If he doesn't completely trip over himself, he will have proven something to the world that he can compete with * on Bush's OWN terms -- out amongst the People. Bush's People.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Actually, Kerry is excellent in the Town Hall format and...

he won the Town Hall Debate in Iowa and the primary!

[deckerd]

3. No offense, but I don't think you understand

The purpose of Managing Expectations is PR.

PR consultants get paid $$$millions to do this.

It hurts Kerry when the media assumes he will trounce Bush in the second debate. That leaves Bush nowhere to go but up.

The way you guys have managed expectations, there is only ONE SCENARIO in which Kerry comes out of tonight's debate on top,

And that is the scenario wherein Bush makes a mistake so bone-headed that it costs him the election right then and there.

Counting on your opponent to commit political suicide, even if there is a high chance it might happen, is a lazy and ill-advised strategy for Democratic "activists".

Dem "activists" need to be "actively" managing expectations to prepare THEMSELVES AND THE MEDIA for any eventuality in which Bush does poorly, but not as poorly as he did last week.

Saying "Bush may have done better but this STILL proves he's a moron" is a "so's your mom" argument that looks defensive.

You HAVE TO AT LEAST BE ABLE TO SAY YOU PREDICTED THAT BUSH WOULD DO BETTER THAN HE DID LAST WEEK. This is a no-lose argument.

And chances are he WILL do better than he did last week.

If he doesn't, it'll kill his campaign. It's not our job to sit back and wait for our opponent to make a fatal mistake, capeche?

Oh yeah, one last thing: The Expectations Game WORKS because the Media KNOWS most of its viewing audience is just as incapable of comprehending it as the majority of people here on DU. Their job is to tell a STORY and the job of smart activists is to play a role in which their candidate looks good no matter WHAT happens.

Jesus, I expect to see 20 more "Kerry is great debater / shut up you freeper unbeliever / the Kerry campaign must be honest" posts before the debate is over.

[Joanne98]

5. PR consultants get paid too much. Besides there's a DU prayer thread

Gawd is going to make Bush tell the truth and his nose is going to bleed everytime he says freedom. Don't worry.

[deckerd]

16. Don't worry, I believe in God

But I've also read the book of Job.

We could be in for another four years of Hell. :evilfrown:

God could be trying to tell conservatives something if he chooses to
keep Bush around extra long. Instrument of His wishes, as Bush might put it.

:evilgrin:

[blm]

2. Horsepoo. Bush has been touted as the friendly audience guy who connects

to people while Kerry is perceived as more aloof.

No game is needed.

Kerry will do splendidly and exceed, because he is excellent in the townhall format. That is how he won Iowa in the primaries.

Are you new at this and just unfamiliar with Kerry's actual strengths or are you spinning us for a reason?

[deckerd]

7. You do not understand Spin

And fortunately, neither do the undecideds because it is YOUR job to
get out there and tell people you are nervous about Kerry's lack of
experience in a townhall format, NOT gloat and hype your candidate
and tell voters they can expect another Kerry victory no matter what.

Clearly most DUers have never managed a campaign.

It is quite logical. YOu are setting your candidate up to look bad no matter what. Bush comes out on top simply for not pissing his pants.

If Bush did as badly IN A TOWN HALL SETTING as he did last week then his campaign would be sunk with no effort needed on Kerry's part. We
can't count on that.

It doesn't matter how good Kerry does if the public EXPECTS KERRY to
do well they will concentrate on Bush, and whether he can "come back"
like Reagan (another mentally challenged president who was a nice guy
but out of touch) did.

It makes me feel good in some ways that some of you are incapable of comprehending this because it means that spinning is possible, on the other hand, it makes me feel bad becasue these are the same techniques that the media uses to manipulate you and your expectations, and most Democrats clearly don't know enough about expectations management to look out for this sort of propaganda.

[blm]

20. Hahah...just don't try spinning US. What you said was absurd

and I called you on trying to spin US. If you WANT to play games, fine. Have at it.

[ciaobox]

4. Bush is a different guy than he was in 2000

You have a point about expectations. We did kind of blow that one.

However, consider this -- Bush is a totally different person than he was when he got selected. He was used to getting hard questions at that point. He was used to debating. Over the past four years, he has repeatedly behaved like he did last week at press conferences and interviews any time he has been challenged. He has a very clear oediple (sp?) complex and I don't think he has the sophistication to acknowledge it. In addition, he has become extremely arrogant and self-absorbed.

Yes, Bush has been reviewing the tapes over the last week. Yes, he will be medicated and much more relaxed for this one. Yes, town halls are more his speed. However, Kerry obviously knows the hot buttons to push. Bush has developed a severe short fuse and temper over the last four years. It will be very difficult for Bush not to react emotionally if Kerry starts pushing buttons. All JK needs to do is start quoting Bush Sr., Rumsfeld, Richard Clarke, etc. and Bush will boil over.

[Joanne98]

8. We didn't need to play the expectations game. 4 hotels were bombed

yesterday and today Bigley was be-headed and the jobs report sucked. ONLY A RETARD will believe Bush tonight when he says blah blah blah. All we need to do is hit the polls and the media afterwards.

[deckerd]

13. There are quite a few retards in this country by your definition

There are also millions of people who fall too easily for media spin.

They are too literalistic. This is good when your intent is to spin
your opponent using the media as a blunt instrument, but it's generally
bad because the media has too much power over the lives of the literal-minded.

You can tell them because they're incapable of understanding irony when
one posts a message (i.e. spin) that is not wholly sincere. Spin is
destined for consumption by all the politically ignorant and unaware people out there, including Dems who would otherwise be disheartened
when Bush pulls a good debate performance out of his ass -- which I am
counting on him to do, as a matter of fact.

Saying people are ignorant and unaware doesn't mean they're bad people;
the fact is, IMO, gov't of the people is and always will be misguided BECAUSE most people are ignorant, unaware, and/or immoral. THis is a fundamentally conservative statement -- the root of the old adage "democracy is the worst system of government, except for all the others". That's why we have checks and balances, and a strong libertarian sentiment in this country.

[deckerd]

9. Obviously we're all hoping for a total nervous breakdown on *'s part

However, if we set the public up to expect it (which is a moot point,
now -- we'll just have to wait and see what the media expects Bush to
do -- if we're lucky they will be managing expectations against Bush)

If the public expects a Buah breakdown, they will be calmed and reassured if and when he does even slightly better than he did last Thurs.

If Bush does breakdown, alot of conservatives are saying it'll cost him the election. Of course, this too is expectations management. They're the ones who should be talking about how we can expect a Bush breakdown and all the awful consequences that would entail, which is why we've heard David Brooks and Matthews and everyone else go on about it at length.

Dem's job (in my opinion) is to continue pumping up expectations for Bush by dwelling on how he did not do as well as expected, given that the town-hall setting is a "natural setting" for Bush to be in.

The good news is that the media does NOT expect Kerry to do as well in a townhall setting. They are unfamiliar with Kerry's abilities in that setting (which have been overstated, IMHO).

The bad news is that the PUBLIC doesn't even realize there's a difference between the debate formats. They will be expecting Kerry to top his performance on Thursday night. That leaves Kerry very little wiggle room.

Anyway, sorry for sounding like a know-it-all.

[RummyTheDummy]

6. You know

I bet you're one of those people who if given a 100 dollar bill as a gift, you'd piss and moan because it's wrinkled. Your happiness threshold is very, very difficult to reach. Isn't it?

[deckerd]

10. There's a difference between sarcasm and spin

I'm being very cold-blooded about this. If getting your candidate elected requires that the public think he's an a**hole, then your job is to make people think Kerry is an a**hole even if he is not and you have no intention of seeing him actually become one. Dems need to reach back into their collective memory and recall this basic campaign skill.

OTOH, I make a distinction between what's right and what it takes to get elected. Elected officials by definition are not agents of moral authority, IMHO. They are agents of temporal, political power. Dealing with problems electorally requires moral compromise (i.e. a good amount of lying) by definition.

Expectations management is all about psyching out your opponent.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. You know something deckerd, you and I have alot in common.

I agree that we MUST do what is needed to get our Country back from the Neo-KKKons!

[deckerd]

14. Agreed.

(pirate grin)

Sorry about the dental work.

[KharmaTrain]

12. We Have To Wratchet Up Bunnypants, Too

Great thread...I'm coming from the other direction...counter-spin, if you will.

Bunnypants needs to assert himself as the leader in the first two questions. He must show vision and wisdom, honesty and reality. Has he met this barrier?

[deckerd]

15. Aye. Will he continue to stick to his guns?

America likes a man who sticks to his guns and doesn't send mixed messages. Which president will show up tonight? Here's hoping he expands and improves on his debate performance last week. He just
needs to turn things up a notch. He can't appear sleepy or tired.
He needs to jump all over Kerry!

:evilgrin:

[Gabi Hayes]

17. this expectations crap is just that: crap

all it does is give the propagandists a hat upon which to hang their PR spin

THEN, the media does its job, based upon where its prejudices lie, or what the editors proclaim the story line is

Gore WON the first debate, then the propgandists on the right, as well as the media, put out the bull about Gore sighing, looking orange, etc, and the debate mysteriously went to Bush, as well as the others, which is total BS

anybody watching without allowing the media to affect his/her judgment will know that a buffoon is 'running' our country, and has demonstrated that with EVERY public appearance he's ever made

it's just that simple....the ONLY people on earth who DONT believe that are the koolaid drinkers voting for him, the Bush junta apparatchiks, and the media whores who have sold their souls in service to the 43d Reich.

[Bucky]

18. I hate to say I told you so, but...

Over the weekend I started a thread starting the talk about how great Bush ought to do and pointing how he needed to do more than just be charming now, he needed to show a command of the facts in Iraq and the details of his policies there.

In typical DU fashion, I was attacked for being too negative and even got an email accusing me of being a freeping lurker. There's a difference between enjoying Bush showing himself up as an idiot and banking on him doing so.

[sonicx]

19. who cares

f the expectations game. f the media.

Kerry will win.